The ATS Weekly Edge Presents:
The Parlay Temptation
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It’s Sunday morning, you’ve got five games circled, and instead of betting them straight, you combine them into a parlay. Why not? The sportsbook is dangling a 25–1 payout if you’re right. Five games, one ticket, life-changing money.
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By Sunday night, one bad beat means the dream dies. The sportsbook thanks you for your donation.
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Why Do Sportsbooks Push Parlays?
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Placing $10 for a $1570 return looks very appealing at first glance. This is what Sportsbooks are counting on you to think.
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Studies from the American Gaming Association and sportsbook revenue reports are clear: parlays are among the biggest profit centers for the house.
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In New Jersey (2023), parlays accounted for nearly 50% of total sportsbook revenue despite being a minority of total bets¹.
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Hold percentage (the % the book keeps):
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Straight bets: 5-7%²
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Parlays: 15-30%³
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That gap isn’t luck. It’s design. Parlays multiply variance in the book’s favor.
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The Math Problem Nobody Tells You
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Each leg of your parlay has a house edge built in (the “-110 tax”). Combine 5 of those, and your “true” probability of hitting shrinks dramatically.
Take a look at this example:
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Win probability per -110 leg ≈ 52.4%⁴
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5-leg parlay win probability ≈ 4%
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Payout offered: 25–1
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True fair odds: closer to 23–1
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It doesn’t look like much, but that small edge is what makes the sportsbook rich while bettors chase long shots.
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If you bet those same five games straight at $100 apiece:
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Wins covered some losses.
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Parlay that same slate? One loss = zero return. The straight-bet bettor lives to fight another day; the parlay bettor reloads his account.
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Sportsbooks market parlays because they feel exciting. The “lottery ticket” effect keeps bettors chasing the thrill. Ever been one leg away? That’s the hook. They want you telling friends, “I almost hit a $5,000 score!” rather than focusing on your actual bankroll trend.
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Sportsbooks lean into what psychologists call the “near-miss effect”, which is the sensation of almost winning that keeps you coming back⁴. Combine that with the longshot bias (our tendency to overvalue tiny odds)⁵, and you’ve got the perfect recipe for the parlay trap.
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Disciplined bettors know better: long-term profit comes from grinding edges, not lottery tickets.
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We never recommend parlays at ATS. They’re entertaining, but they aren’t a strategy.
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👉 Have you ever hit a parlay or lost one by a single leg? Reply to this email with your craziest parlay story. We will feature some of the best next week anonymously (unless you want to brag we get it).
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New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement, 2023 Revenue Report.
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Nevada Gaming Abstract, Sports Wagering Hold Data.
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American Gaming Association, Sports Betting Insights, 2022–23.
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Clark, L., Lawrence, A. J., Astley-Jones, F., & Gray, N. (2009). Gambling Near-Misses Enhance Motivation to Gamble and Recruit Win-Related Brain Circuitry. Neuron, 61(3), 481–490.
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Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263–291.
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The next generation of handicapping is here.
With a 75.5% accuracy in this particular AI class over the past two NFL seasons, Dr. Anton Dahbura has used his technology to make clients thousands every weekend.
With this cutting edge software, this past weekend ASAI went 2-0 with:
Buffalo -5.5 vs NY Jets 1:00 30-10
WBaltimore -11.5 vs Cleveland 1:00 41-17
Check out our website to find out more about our partnership with ASAI and stay tuned this week on our youtube for a word from Dr. Dahbura himself.
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This past week, ATS Dominated in every single sport.
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ATS Football ➜ 10-3
ATS Baseball ➜ 6-1
ATS NFL AI ➜ 2-0
ATS UFC ➜ 2-1
ATS Boxing ➜ 1-0
Not to sound redundant, but we’re here to make you money. If you’re not already in one of our programs, now is the time to get on board. Let us show you how profitable this football season can be.
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Reply to this email with "FLOCK25" to get in on the winnings for this weekend.
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Early College Lock of the Year Weekend
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After hitting the College Underdog Lock of the Month with Georgia Tech +3 OUTRIGHT over Clemson 24-21, we are gearing up to have yet another high earning weekend for ATS Clients. In comes the Early College Lock of the Year Weekend.
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10–12 Lock Games from Thursday through Sunday
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Saturday, September 20 ➜ Early College Lock of the Year
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Sunday, September 11 ➜ 3-4 killer games to put a bow on this fantastic weekend.
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It's time to take your betting to the next level with ATS. Don't believe us? Let our results speak for themselves.
Reply to this email TODAY.
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The Key to a Lock: Tip to Cash Out
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Chasing five tickets? One lock pays better.
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One Edge Beats Five Dreams
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Skip the parlay card. Find one game where the line is mispriced and press your advantage there. A single smart, +EV straight wager will do more for your bankroll than five “hope and pray” parlay legs.
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Fri: Iowa -2.5 vs RutgersSat: UMiami FL -7.5 vs FloridaThese are the picks we are looking at. The final pick will be available on GAME DAY. Picks are subject to change throughout the week.Give our main line a call at 800-772-1287 for the updates this week, or email us at [email protected].ATS top picks are available in the ATS Lock Club | Please contact our offices for more information regarding program plays
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1777 Resiterstown Road Ste. W777Baltimore, MD 21208 USACONTACT US:Toll Free: (800) 772- 1287[email protected]
atsbas.com
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