NBA Playoffs are starting to take shape
Betting the NBA is never easy, but now that the playoffs are nearly set, there are some things to be cautious about when it comes to approaching teams’ mindsets this late.
The NBA Playoffs tip off on Saturday, April 18, but before that, the Play-in Tournament starts on April 14. At this point (March 31), there are 10 teams out of the running for the playoffs: Milwaukee, Chicago, Brooklyn, Washington, Indiana, Memphis, New Orleans, Dallas, Utah, and Sacramento. Those teams basically tank mode as New Orleans (4-6 L10) is the only team attempting to try because they traded away their first-round pick last season.
Here are some playoff scenarios as of March 31, according to NBA.com. Click the link for more information. Division wins aren’t a big deal.
*Cleveland (47-27) can clinch a playoff spot with a win over the Lakers. Clinching a playoff spot means finishing in the top six in each conference. If you finish 7-10, you are I the play-in tournament.
*Detroit (54-21) is four games above Boston for the Eastern Conference lead. Despite not having Cade Cunningham (lung), the Pistons have won 7 of their last 10 games. They do expect him to return before the playoffs. Betting against the Pistons once they clinch first place (they have seven games left) is logical.
*Boston (50-25) has a full roster save for new center Nikola Vucevic (finger), who is expected to return this weekend. This is a dangerous team, and it’s not a shocker that they are the second favorite (+550) to win the NBA Championship and the favorite (+170) to win the Eastern Conference (odds from DraftKings).
*Denver (48-28) can clinch a playoff spot with a Phoenix loss to Orlando tonight. The Nuggets have won six straight and are in fourth place in the Western Conference, just 1.5 games ahead of Minnesota and two games up on Houston. They are also 1.5 games behind the LA Lakers, who have won three straight and nine of 10. If you’re looking for a big underdog to win the NBA Championship, the Nuggets are +800.
*San Antonio (57-18) has won nine straight games but is 2.5 behind OKC for first place in the West. This is a very dangerous team, and their only weakness is a lack of experience. They are picked as the third favorite to win the NBA title (+600) and second-favorite to win the Western Conference (+340).
*Golden State (36-39) appears to be in a rebuilding mode as the 10th seed, but they are dangerous as long as Stephen Curry is healthy. Curry is having a solid season with 27.2 points per game and is shooting 39.1% from beyond the arc in just 39 games. Their season basically ended when Jimmy Butler (20ppg) suffered a season-ending knee injury. Curry (knee) should return before the end of the season, but he hasn’t played since January 30. Pass on their future playoff odds, but check on how they’re playing when and if Curry returns.
*Another team to look out for now and possibly in the playoffs is the LA Clippers (39-36). They’ve won five straight games, but looking at a play-in game at No. 8, considering they are three games behind No. 7 Phoenix with seven games to play. Why are the Clippers dangerous if they beat the Suns and make the playoff field? Kawhi Leonard is having a great season (28.2ppg, 6.3rpg) and is healthy (at the moment. Darius Garland (21.3ppg, 7apg) and Bennedict Mathurin (20.3ppg, 5.0rpg) were two late trade additions and are also healthy.
*The Los Angeles Lakers (49-26) can clinch a playoff spot and the Pacific Division title with a win against Cleveland OR a Phoenix loss to Orlando. This Lakers team has been playing great basketball, winning six straight and eight of their last 10 games. They have no chance of getting the top two seeds and are 1.5 games ahead of Denver. But at this point, they are going to rest Lebron James and last night, rested Luka Doncic. Another team to bet against down the stretch despite their record. They’ve also covered just once in their last five games. The Lakers are +1500 to win the Western Conference and +3000 to win the NBA title.
This is where research matters. Always pay attention to the standings as well as the injury reports. Teams that are still fighting for seedings will play their starters full minutes. Those who are locked into a seed or a play-in tournament are not going to have the motivation and may end up playing starters fewer minutes.
At this point, expect some weird rotations and starters either sitting or playing fewer minutes. The tanking teams are going to do what they’ve done all season, or most, and that includes a lot of G-League-type lineups and a fourth quarter where coaches are not trying to win.
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