
Pace of play stats for NBA Playoffs
As the NBA playoffs start on April 18 and the play-in tournament tips off on Tuesday, April 14, how is important is tempo when it comes to totals?
In the NBA playoffs, the pace is normally slower than normal because teams are forced to play defense, and in a long series, it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to push the ball at a very high tempo.
For example, the pace of play doesn’t always lead to a great offense. Case in point is Miami, which ranks 1st in pace of play, but 13th in offensive rating (according to DunksandThrees). Sometimes, the slower team runs the best offense. If you look at Boston, they are 30th in pace of play and second in offensive rating. The Celtics are also 4th in defensive rating, which might explain why they are 30-52-1 Under this season.
Last season, Boston was 5-5-1 O/U in the playoffs after finishing 29th in pace of play. But their defense was slightly worse than this season (6th in defensive rating). The bigger question is whether a slower pace in the regular season correlates to more unders in the playoffs?
That can be a tricky question, but it wouldn’t make a lot of sense to go over with slower-paced teams, especially when the tempo is even slower in the postseason.
This season, Miami (1st), Atlanta (4th), and Minnesota (10th) are in the playoffs as fast-paced teams, but the other seven are out of the playoffs (Utah, Chicago, Wash, Dallas, Memphis, Portland, Indiana). The Heat are barely in the play-in tournament, so playing at a faster pace didn’t help eight of the top 10 teams make the playoffs.
Last season, OKC was the fifth-fastest team, and Indiana was the sixth-fastest, and both met up in the NBA Finals with the Thunder winning. In the Finals, the total finished at 5-2 Under.
Research is important in any handicapping endeavor so check out DunksandThrees.com or TeamRankings.com for possessions per game (similar to pace) and you can find the pace of play stats. Also, check out offensive and defensive efficiency numbers. Regular season numbers don’t automatically mean that high-paced teams will play fast; however, knowing that most of the playoff teams are out of the top 10.
A slow pace doesn’t always indicate an under if their offense is elite. The under makes sense in situations where the pace of play might be slower and the fact that defenses are better. For example, when looking at the top defenses in terms of adjusted rating, OKC (1st), Detroit (2nd), Spurs (3rd), Boston (4th), Toronto (5th), Houston (6th), New York (7th), Minnesota (8th), Atlanta (9th) and Phoenix (10th) are all playoff or play-in teams.) are all playoff teams (from 1-9 in defense). When it comes to pace, there is only one team in the top 5 (Atlanta) and six teams are in the bottom 10.
Aside from the pace of play, check out the latest key injuries, offensive and defensive efficiency stats, logs for the last 10 games and matchups for each team this season to give you some tips when it comes to picking totals for the NBA Playoffs.
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