Author: Mat Daily

We’ve got a Game 7 on Saturday night at 8pmET (NBC) from Oklahoma City as the top seed in the West meets the No. 2 seed. The winner faces the New York Knicks on Wednesday for Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

San Antonio took Game 6, 118-91, easily covering the 3.5 at home on Thursday. Victor Wembanyama led the Spurs with 28 points, 10 rebounds, and three blocks. Dylan Harper added 18 points and eight rebounds off the bench.

The Thunder were led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who had 15 points, but went 0-for-5 from beyond the arc.  OKC shot just 37% from the field and 25% from beyond the arc. Oklahoma City was minus-28 in Gilgeous-Alexander’s 28 minutes on the floor.

The Thunder won Game 5 by 13 points, so the home team has covered three straight, but the road team has covered Game 1 and Game 3. 

In terms of the total, the under has been the pick in two of the last three games. However, before that, the over hit in four straight games. The Over has also hit in five of OKC’s last six games at home. 

 In terms of injuries. OKC starting guard Ajay Mitchell played the first three games, but suffered a hamstring injury and hasn’t played since. Jalen Williams, who has also been dealing with hamstring issues all season long, returned last night, but played just 10 minutes and took one shot.

The concern is that SGA will either finally show up in this series and not just rely on getting to the line. He’s hitting just 40.9% of his 2-point attempts in the Western Conference finals, compared to shooting a career-best 60.2% on 2-point attempts in the regular season. 

Game Trends:

Spurs are: 10-5 ATS last 15 games.

Spurs are: 9-2 Over last 11 games.

Spurs are: 6-0 Over last 6 on the road. 

OKC is: 7-2 Over last 9.

OKC is: 18-2 SU last 20 at home. 

Here are some of the top props to consider for Game 7.

(one prop trend to consider: De’Aaron Fox has exceeded 13.5 points in 14 of his last 18 games).

First Basket

Victor Wembanayama +359

Jared McCain (OKC) +910

Lugentz Dort (OKC) +1060

Points

Chet Holmgren o13.5 (+100)

Rebounds

Victor Wembanyama o12.5 (-116)

Assists

Isaiah Hartenstein u2.5 (+102)

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Hoops Basketball Program Continues to Dominate

There are three weeks left in the NBA season. The ATS Basketball  Program has won 4 straight weeks, and average bettors are up nearly $3,500 in that span. Or call about Early Bird Discounts.

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Another busy weekend of sporting events with betting implications. It all starts very early on Saturday in China.

(odds  from DraftKings)

1)UFC Fight Night 277- Macau 

UFC continues this week from the Galaxy Arena in Macau, China, on Saturday, May 30. This is the first time UFC has been featured in Macau since late 2024. This event will be early for those in North America, starting at 4amET and 1amPT.

Not surprisingly, with this event being featured in China, the main event of a six-bout card, offers a bantamweight clash between Yadong Song (22-9-1, 1NC) from China and former two-time flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo (25-6-1) from Brazil.  Yadong is -600, while Figuereido is +440.

 2)Boxing for Saturday night.

From El Paso,  Texas, Stephanie Han (-425) will fight Holly Holm (+300) for 10 rounds and for Han’s WBA women’s lightweight title on ESPN at 7pmET.

From Ekaterinburg, Russia, Dmitry Bivol vs. Michael Eifert (12 rounds) will fight for Bivol’s WBA, IBF and WBO light heavyweight titles. Bivol is a -2500 favorite, with Eifert listed at +900.

From Houston, O’Shaquie Foster will take on Raymond Ford (12 rounds), for Foster’s WBC Junior Lightweight Title.  Foster (-175) is the favorite over Ford (+140) in this matchup.

3)NBA Playoffs could be heading to a Game 7 in the Western Conference

Depending on the results of the Spurs/Thunder matchup on Game 6, we could have a spectacular Game 7 from Oklahoma City at 8pmET on NBC/Peacock. The New York Knicks will have over a week to prepare for their Finals opponent. 

OKC is -145 to win the NBA Finals, the Knicks are +210 and the Spurs are +550. 

4)The NHL Playoffs continue on Friday with Game 5, with the Hurricanes hosting the Canadiens. Carolina leads the series at 3-1 and they look to win the series at home on TNT. If the Habs win, the series heads back to Montreal for Game 6 on Sunday from the Bell Centre (TBA). The winner faces Vegas, which swept Colorado in four games.

Carolina is -145 to win the Stanley Cup, while Vegas is +130 and Montreal is +3000.

5)French Open continues

Tennis continues this weekend with the French Open and as discussed in an earlier post, upsets are bound to happen on the women’s side. No. 2 Elena Rybakina lost in three sets in the second round to unseeded Yuliia Starodubtseva. In other words, look for underdogs in the early rounds on the women’s side. No. 5 American Jessica Pegula lost in three sets in the opening round, but No.4 Coco Gauff and No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka won in two sets. Gauff is  +600 to win the French Open, while Sabalenka is +250, though No. 3 Iga Swiatek is the favorite at +240, after she cruised in his second round two-setter over unseeded Sara Bejlek.

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Hoops Basketball Program Continues to Dominate

There are three weeks left in the NBA season. The ATS Basketball  Program has won 4 straight weeks, and average bettors are up nearly $3,500 in that span. Or call about Early Bird Discounts.

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Baseball is going strong as we head into June, but not everyone likes to bet on money lines, totals, and run lines. There are other options to bet on as we approach the warmer months before football starts in August.

1)MMA/UFC

A)Sharp bettors love this sport because it’s usually once a week. Most UFC cards are on Saturdays, aside from Freedom 250 at the White House on Sunday, June 14.

B)If the money line is too high, you can wager on props like the fight going the distance, betting by rounds, method of victory and live betting after Round 1.

C)Some of the bigger fights are overhyped, and you can find an edge and better value with the lesser-known fights.

2) Soccer World Cup

1)The FIFA World Cup goes from June 11-July 19. It’s the biggest event in the world, which goes for about five weeks.

A)The Totals and corner markets might be softer than the sides.

B)Double chance. This is a combo bet where you have three combinations: Team A wins or draw, Team B wins or draw and Team A wins or Team B wins (no draw). Example: England or Draw (-330) covers an England win or tie.

USA or Draw (+120) covers a USA win or a tie.

Germany or Spain wins (-400), eliminating the draw but pays poorly given the chalk.

C)A popular bet is the three-way moneyline. For example, Germany (-175) vs. Spain (+420), Draw (+290). A $175 bet on Germany wins $100 if Germany wins in regulation. A $100 bet on the draw wins $290 if the match is tied after 90 minutes, regardless of what happens in extra time.

3)Golf-the Majors

A)Betting the Majors can be fun. The U.S. Open (June 18-21) and Open Championship (July 12-19) are coming up later.

B)The odds of winning these tournaments are massive.

C)The weather and course fit create edges.

D)The more popular bets are top 10 and top 20 as well as head-to-head matchups. You can also bet on first-round leaders.

4) The 158th running of the Belmont Stakes goes on June 6. 

A)The race is at Saratoga Race Course and will take place at 1 1/4 miles as opposed to its usual 1 1/2 miles. The normal home is at Belmont Park, but there is a multi-year construction project there. 

B)Renegade, the Kentucky Derby runner-up, is the 5-2 favorite. 

C)If you’re a beginner, 

Stick to Win, Place, or Show bets. Bet small ($2–$10)

• Look at:
  recent race results
  jockey/trainer records
  track conditions
  odds movement
  
  
• Put a small “Win” bet on your favorite horse.
  
  
• Put a “Show” bet on a longer shot for safer odds.

5)Tennis -the Grand Slams.

A) Three Grand Slams are remaining, though the French Open has just started. After that, there is Wimbledon (starting June 29) and then the U.S. Open (begins Aug. 30).

B)Surface matters a lot as the French Open is on clay, Wimbledon is played on grass and the U.S. Open on hard court. Some players specialize in those surfaces and are bad on others.

C)You can bet on sets, but remember that the men are best-of-five in the grand slams. A strong favorite is a -1.5 set spread, which requires them to win 3-0 or 3-1 for the men. A +1.5 set underdog can yield far better returns than moneyline odds.

D)Betting odds before the tournament on moneyline is difficult on the men’s side because the favorite usually wins and has strong odds. That’s a little more difficult on the women’s side, where favorites fall all the time.

E)You can also bet on how long the match runs, how many sets are played, and player props such as aces, double faults, set wins, etc.

Other summer sports to bet on include the WNBA, NASCAR, and the CFL.

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Hoops Basketball Program Continues to Dominate

There are three weeks left in the NBA season. The ATS Basketball  Program has won 4 straight weeks, and average bettors are up nearly $3,500 in that span. Or call about Early Bird Discounts.

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Baseball is rolling at ATS! ATS Baseball has won 4 of the last 5 weeks. Get 2-3 games every single day through October.  We project average bettors to win over $10,000 in the first half. Join us for our special Memorial Day Weekend package. Start today!

• Join our Baseball Financial Program for $399 and get the rest of the Basketball Financial Program for FREE.  Contact us below for special deals so you can start winning today.

  ______________________________________________________________________________

  Hoops Financial Program is Dominating

  There are four weeks left in the NBA season. The ATS Basketball Financial Program has won 12 of 14 weeks, and average bettors are up nearly $5,000 in that span. Join our Basketball Financial Program for just $199 and get the rest of the regular season and playoffs through mid-June. Or call about Early Bird Discounts.

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Baseball is past the quarter mark with teams playing as many as 55 games. From a betting perspective, let’s take a look at some of the top 10 teams to bet on and against for the money line, along with top overs and unders and teams against the run line.

Top 10 Money Line

1)Tampa Bay 34-17   $1332

2)Washington 28-27  $1035

3)St. Louis 29-23  $1020

4)Atlanta  36-18  $957

5)Cleveland 32-24  $788

6)San Diego 31-22  $652

7)Chicago White Sox 27-26  $620

8)Milwaukee  31-20 $604

9)Arizona 29-24  $314

10)Cincinnati 28-25 $294

Bottom 10

30)Detroit  21-33  $-1551

29)NY Mets 22-32  $-1551

28)Kansas City 22-32  $-1202

27)Seattle  26-29 $-1078

26)Boston 22-30 $-992

25)LA Angels 20-34 $-951

24)Baltimore  24-30 $-851

23)Toronto 25-29 $-818

22)Philadelphia 27-27  $-794

21)San Francisco 22-32 $-704

Top 5 Run Line

1)Atlanta  $1812

2)Tampa Bay $1564

3)Milwaukee  $1170

4)San Diego $775

5)Pittsburgh $680

Bottom 5 Run Line

30)Philadelphia $-1904

29)San Francisco $-1692

28)NY Mets $-1504

27)Houston 24-31 $-1263

26)Kansas City $-1215

Top 5 Overs

1)Cincinnati 33-19

2)Washington 34-18

3)Miami 33-20

3)Chicago White Sox 31-22

4)Minnesota 31-22

5)Athletics 31-22

Top 5 Unders

1)Texas 20-29

2)LA Dodgers 23-31

3)Kansas City 23-31

4)NY Mets 22-28

5)Boston 22-28

______________________________________________________________________________

Hoops Basketball Program Continues to Dominate

There are three weeks left in the NBA season. The ATS Basketball  Program has won 4 straight weeks, and average bettors are up nearly $3,500 in that span. Or call about Early Bird Discounts.

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How do Metrics and Analytics impact Betting on Baseball?

Modern-day baseball is a little like modern-day basketball. In hoops, a long two-pointer is considered a bad shot. In baseball, getting on base is just as important as getting a hit, though not with runners in scoring position. OBP, OPS, wRC+, xERA and FIP are just some of the terms used to improve baseball teams. Bettors can use stats to estimate probabilities more accurately than relying on feel, intuition, win/loss record, or winning (losing streaks) alone.

1)There is more to evaluate a pitcher other than ERA.

A)xERA is expected ERA based on the quality of contact.

B)FIP is field independent pitcher. That focuses on strikeouts, walks and home runs.

C)K/BB ratio. That is strikeout-to-walk efficiency.

D)WHIP-Most fantasy players know (a basic category). It’s walks + hits per inning pitched.

2)There is more to hitting than just batting average.

A)OPS. That’s on-base plus slugging.

B)wRC+. Weighted runs created adjusted for park effects.

C)BABIP-Batting average on balls in play.

D)Hard-hit rate. This is where velo comes into play. This is the percentage of batter’s batted balls (line drives, ground balls and fly balls) that leave the bat with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher.

E)Barrel percentage. This is an advanced metric that measures how often a hitter makes ideal, high-quality contact.

A team that is struggling to win, but has strong contact metrics, might be undervalued in terms of odds.

3)Bullpen strength

The one factor in betting on baseball that can scare most bettors is the word bullpen. Bullpen analytics are often critical for full-game bets. The key factors to look at bullpen strength are:

A)Bullpen ERA.

B)Workload and bullpen fatigue.

C)Save Conversion rates.

D)Leverage performance.

4)Matchup Analysis:

This is where you can really get into the weeds. There are some teams that struggle against high-velocity fastball.

Some hitters produce more against certain pitcher types.

On Friday, we’ll look at some of the best pitchers and hitters based on these types of metrics listed above.

5)EV (Expected Value)

When comparing probability estimates against sportsbooks’ odds, you may see a model that says a team has a 60% chance to win. However, odds may imply only 50% that may represent positive expected value.

This is the foundation of analytical betting:

A)Compare against market odds.

B)Bet only when value exists.

C)Estimate true probability.

Sites like Baseball Savant, FanGraphs, MLB.com, ESPN.com, Baseball Reference, Baseball Prospectus, Rotowire, Stathead, and Baseball Theater.

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Baseball is rolling at ATS! ATS Baseball has won 4 of the last 5 weeks. Get 2-3 games every single day through October.  We project average bettors to win over $10,000 in the first half. Join us now as we have a special Memorial Day Weekend. Start today!

• Join our Baseball Financial Program for $399 and get the rest of the Basketball Financial Program for FREE.  Contact us below for special deals so you can start winning today.

  ______________________________________________________________________________

  Hoops Financial Program is Dominating

  There are four weeks left in the NBA season. The ATS Basketball Financial Program has won 12 of 14 weeks, and average bettors are up nearly $5,000 in that span. Join our Basketball Financial Program for just $199 and get the rest of the regular season and playoffs through mid-June. Or call about Early Bird Discounts.

  __________________________________________________________________

Eastern Conference Finals Betting Preview

The Eastern Conference Finals begin on Tuesday night on ESPN at 8pmET. The New York Knicks host the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 1 of a seven-game series. In Game 1, the Knicks are a 7.5-point favorite, and the total is 217.5, while the Knicks are -260 on the money line and Cleveland is +215. Let’s take a look at a betting preview of this series.

(odds from DraftKings).

Cleveland (60-36, 40-55-1 ATS, 50-46 O/U) vs New York (62-31, 50-42-1 ATS, 43-50 O/U)

Head-to-Head: The Knicks have taken two of three games this season, but are 1-2 ATS.

Preview:  Cleveland needed seven games to get by top-seeded Detroit, winning Game 7, 125-94 on the road on Sunday.  That game after getting crushed 115-94 at home in Game 6. Donovan Mitchell has had some shooting woes in the playoffs, but he came through when the Cavs needed him. He had 26 points and eight assists, but Sam Merrill was huge off the bench with 23 points on 5-of-8 from 3-point range. To beat a physical team like the Knicks, Cleveland will need big performances from Evan Mobley (17ppg, 8rpg, 4.1apg in the playoffs) and Jarrett Allen (13.1ppg, 7.3rpg). They have some depth in the backcourt, but not a lot in the frontcourt. James Harden (20.1ppg, 6.2apg, 4.8tpg) struggled with turnovers in the Detroit series against much more athletic players. New York doesn’t have an Ausar Thompson to defend him, though Mikal Bridges can cause some havoc (assuming he will defend Mitchell).

Key stats:  9^th in Adjusted Net Rating, 5^th in Adjusted Offensive Rating, 17^th in Adjusted Defense. (stats from DunksandThrees). Basic stats: 8^th in field goal percentage (47.9%), 13^th in three-point offense (35.7%). 8^th in field goal defense (46.3%) and 26^th in three-point defense (37.2%).

The New York Knicks swept Philadelphia in four games and have not played since May 10. They’ve also won seven straight playoff games, having defeated Atlanta in six in the first round. That was great news for them, considering OG Anunoby missed the last two games due to a hamstring injury. He should be healthy for this game (listed as probable). He was arguably the best all-around player for the Knicks before the injury, averaging 21.4 points in their first eight postseason games. Jalen Brunson (27.4ppg, 6.1apg in the playoffs) is the star, but they need Karl-Anthony Towns (17.4pp, 10rpg, 6.6apg) to play big and unselfish in this series. New York has a loaded starting five and a solid bench with guards like Miles McBride (7.5ppg), Jordan Clarkson (6.5ppg), Jose Alvarado (4.9ppg), and Landry Shamet (4.1ppg) as capable performers.

Key Stats: 5^th in Adjusted Net Rating, 4^th in Adjusted Offensive Rating, 7^th in Adjusted Defense. (from DunksandThrees). Basic stats: 11^th in field goal percentage (48.1%) and 4^th in three-point shooting (37.6%). 5^th in field goal defense (45.7%) and 20^th in three-point defense (35.7%).

Conference Finals Series Prices:  NY Knicks -265/Cleveland +215

Series Leader (total points):  Jalen Brunson -115 (take a longshot with KAT +4000)

Series Total Games Under 5.5 +125

Series Correct Score:  Knicks 4-1 +320

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Baseball is one of the most profitable sports at ATS! Get 2-3 games every single day through October.  We project average bettors to win over $31,000 in the first half.

• Join our Baseball Financial Program for $399 and get the Basketball Financial Program for FREE.  Contact us below for special deals so you can start winning today.

  ______________________________________________________________________________

  Hoops Financial Program is Rolling

  There are four weeks left in the NBA season. The ATS Basketball Financial Program has won 12 of 14 weeks, and average bettors are up nearly $5,000 in that span. Join our Basketball Financial Program for just $199 and get the rest of the regular season and playoffs through mid-June. Or call about Early Bird Discounts.

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Baseball is considered one of the easiest sports to bet on if you have the information. All you have to do is pick the winner or the over/under. 

That sounds easy, but in the early months, pitchers and hitters can be very erratic as is the weather. By late May, roughly 40-50 games have been played, which gives bettors reliable, stabilizing statistics to work with.

In the first two months:

• Teams have only played 10–25 games
• Small sample sizes create fake trends
• The weather is inconsistent
• Bullpens and rotations are unsettled
• Hitters/pitchers can run unusually hot or cold

Here are some reasons why it’s easier to bet on baseball as we approach the start of summer!

• Most teams have played 50+ games
• Starting pitchers have established real form
• Bullpen roles stabilize
• Injuries and lineup quality are clearer
• Advanced stats become more predictive
• Public perception still lags behind underlying metrics

• A .340-hitting team with terrible hard-hit numbers usually cools off
• A pitcher with a 5.00 ERA but elite strikeout/walk metrics often improves

• Velocity trends
• Pitch mix changes
• Injury concerns
• Real strikeout ability
• Whether breakout performances are legit

• Sloser
• Setup arms
• Long relievers

• Stabilize run environments
• Increase ball carry
• Make park factors more reliable

• Sustainable offenses
• Fraudulent records
• Teams overperforming in one-run games
• Travel/fatigue issues
• Platoon weaknesses

• Big-market teams
• Last game results
• Batting average
• Win-loss record

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Baseball is rolling at ATS! ATS Baseball has won 4 of the last 5 weeks. Get 2-3 games every single day through October.  We project average bettors to win over $10,000 in the first half.

• Join our Baseball Financial Program for $399 and get the rest of the Basketball Financial Program for FREE.  Contact us below for special deals so you can start winning today.

  ______________________________________________________________________________

  Hoops Financial Program is Rolling

  There are four weeks left in the NBA season. The ATS Basketball Financial Program has won 12 of 14 weeks, and average bettors are up nearly $5,000 in that span. Join our Basketball Financial Program for just $199 and get the rest of the regular season and playoffs through mid-June. Or call about Early Bird Discounts.

  __________________________________________________________________

Western Conference Finals Betting Preview

The Western Conference Finals begin on Monday night at 8:30pmET on NBA/Peacock with the OKC Thunder hosting the San Antonio Spurs in Game 1. The Thunder are -6.5-point favorites in Game 1 and the total is 219.5, while the money line is OKC -265/Spurs +215. Let’s take a look at a betting preview of this series.

(odds from DraftKings).

San Antonio (70-24, 53-39-2 ATS, 42-52 O/U) vs Oklahoma City (72-18, 44-45-1 ATS, 50-40 O/U)

Head-to-Head: The Spurs are 4-1 SU this season and 3-1-1 ATS. Three of those games were by 10 or more points. That included a 111-109 win for San Antonio in the NBA Cup semifinals on Dec. 14.

Preview: The Thunder come into this series having swept the Suns and Lakers, covering five of those eight games. OKC has now won nine straight postseason games, heading back to their NBA Finals win over Indiana in Game 7, 103-91 on June 22 of 2025. The key for the Thunder will be how they handle 7-5 Victor Wembanyama, who has a 7-1 Chet Holmgren to try and slow him down. Holmgren did not play well against the Spurs this season, averaging just 12.2 points and 7 rebounds. He averaged 20 points against the Lakers and 19.6 points per game on 60% shooting in the playoffs. He doesn’t have to be the No. 2 scorer because Jalen Williams (20.5ppg in 2 postseason games) is expected back from a hamstring injury. They have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (29.1ppg, 7.1apg in 8 postseason games), the two-time MVP. Ajay Mitchell is averaging 18.8 points and 4.9 assists in the postseason, picking up the slack for Williams.

Key stats: OKC is 1^st in Adjusted Net Ratings, 7^th in Adjusted Offensive Rating, and 1^st in Adjusted Defensive Rating. (stats from DunksandThrees.com). First in defensive field goal percentage (43.9%), 25^th in three-point defense (36.8%). Fifth in Field goal percentage (48.6%) and 13th in three-point percentage (37.8%).

The Spurs had a tougher road to get here, beating Portland in five and Minnesota in six games. The main issues right now are injuries with point guard De’Aaron Fox, dealing with an ankle injury. He’s a game-time decision, but Fox is expected to play. He’s been outstanding this season, averaging 18.6 points and 6.2 assists. He’s not a great three-point shooter (34.6%), but they have Stephon Castle (44% in postseason), who is an emerging player, averaging 19.9 points and 6.1 assists in the postseason. Another emerging player is rookie Dylan Harper, who is averaging 13.7 points and 5.1 rebounds, while shooting 56.6% from the field. This will be a battle of the guards with Mitchell, Jalen Williams, SGA, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace and Jared McCain taking on a younger and more athletic group. But the Spurs are still about Wemby, who is a potential MVP, averaging 20.3 points, 10.7 rebounds and 4.1 blocks in the postseason. He’s averaging 18.4 points, 9.2 rebounds and 2.0 assists against the Spurs. The Defensive Player of the Year protects the rim like no other player in the history of the NBA.

Key stats: Spurs are 2nd in Adjusted Net Ratings, 3rd in Adjusted Offensive Rating, and 3^rd in Adjusted Defensive Rating. (stats from DunksandThrees.com). Fourth in defensive field goal percentage (44.6%), 8^th in three-point defense (34.9%). Sixth in Field goal percentage (48.3%) and 15th in three-point percentage (37.3%).

Conference Finals: OKC -260/Spurs +210

Series Leader (total points): Wembanyama +320

Finals MVP: Victor Wembanyama +230

Series Correct Score: Spurs 4-2 (+550)

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Baseball is one of the most profitable sports at ATS. Won for the week and is up again! Get 2-3 games every single day through October.  We project average bettors to win over $31,000 in the first half.

• Join our Baseball Financial Program for $399 and get the Basketball Financial Program for FREE.  Contact us below for special deals so you can start winning today.

  ______________________________________________________________________________

  Hoops Financial Program is Rolling

  There are four weeks left in the NBA season. The ATS Basketball Financial Program has won 12 of 14 weeks, and average bettors are up nearly $5,000 in that span. Join our Basketball Financial Program for just $199 and get the rest of the regular season and playoffs through mid-June.

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Odds for Week 1 in the NFL

The schedule is finally out, and it’s one of the most overhyped and overrated things in sports. Yet, for bettors, we get an early look at the games in Week 1. While lines are going to change some from now until September 9, they should be similar, barring a major injury to a quarterback or key player. The rosters should also be similar, so picking Week 1 this early is a risk, but if you can find good odds and have an itch to bet a few months before the season, do so with caution.

(odds from DraftKings)

Wednesday, Sept. 9

New England at Seattle, 8:20pmET (NBC)

Seattle -3.5 ML: -192/New England +160

Total: 44.5 points

The Super Bowl champ usually gets the first game, though this is on a Wednesday. This time, it’s a Super Bowl rematch with Mike Vrabel back after his rough summer of trying to duck questions about his relationship with former NFL reporter Diana Russini.

Thursday, September 10

San Francisco vs. LA Rams, Melbourne, Australia, 8:35pmET Netflix

LA Rams -2.5. ML: LA Rams -148/49ers +124

Total: 48.5.

An early NFC West matchup. Will the 49ers finally be healthy? The Rams upgraded their secondary and are the favorite to win the Super Bowl.

Sunday, Sept. 13

Chicago at Carolina, 1pmET (FOX)

Chicago -2.5. ML: Bears -135/Panthers +114

Total: 44.5.

Two young quarterbacks battle, with Caleb Williams taking on Bryce Young. The Panthers made huge strides last season, and it’s a slight surprise that they are home dogs.

Tampa Bay at Cincinnati, 1pmET (FOX)

Cincinnati -3.5. ML: Cincinnati -198/Tampa Bay +164

Total: 50.5

Joe Burrow is finally back to lead a team that could be a favorite in the AFC. The question for Cincy is twofold: Can Burrow stay healthy, and do they have the defense to contend? Tampa Bay still has Baker Mayfield, but future HOFer Mike Evans is gone.

Baltimore at Indianapolis, 1pmET (CBS)

Baltimore -3.5. ML: Ravens -185/Colts +154

Total: 49.5.

Baltimore has a brand new coaching staff under Jesse Minter and a new EDGE in Trey Hendrickson. Indy brought back WR Alex Pierce. The biggest question for the Colts is whether QB Daniel Jones will be completely healthy, returning from a torn Achilles tendon. Running is also a big part of his arsenal.

Buffalo at Houston, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Buffalo -1.5. ML: Bills -112/Texans -108

Total: 45.5.

These teams met in Week 12 as the Houston defense was able to take charge in a 23-19 win. Buffalo hasn’t won a game in Houston dating back to 2006. While the Houston defense is elite, they need a rebound season from QB C.J. Stroud.

New Orleans at Detroit, 1pmET (FOX)

Detroit -7. ML: Lions -325/Saints +260

Total: 48.5.

The Saints are in rebuild mode, but showed promise going 4-1 with rookie QB Tyler Shough. The addition of Travis Etienne Jr. at running back can’t hurt. Detroit is a team in flux, a little, and will need improvements on the offensive line to show that they are still in the mix.

NY Jets at Tennessee, 1pmET (CBS)

Titans -3. ML: Titans -170/Jets +142

Total: 39.5.

This is not an exciting Week 1 game. However, the Jets could be very good on the defensive side with rookie David Bailey on the EDGE and a solid defensive line. The Titans helped QB Cam Ward by adding rookie WR Carnell Tate and beefing up the offensive line.

Atlanta at Pittsburgh, 1pmET (FOX)

Pittsburgh -3. ML: Steelers -175/Falcons +145

Total: 42.5.

Pittsburgh still doesn’t have a veteran quarterback, but most expect Aaron Rodgers to return (who else?). Mike McCarthy takes over for long-time coach Mike Tomlin, and that’s the big story in the Steel City. Atlanta adds Tua Tagovailoa, who could show something with a new team, but he’s not the long-term answer at quarterback.

Cleveland at Jacksonville, 1pmET (CBS)

Jacksonville -7. ML: Jaguars -190/Browns +235

Total: 40.5.

The Browns have another new head coach. Todd Monken comes over from Baltimore and needs to figure out the quarterback situation between Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders. The Jags don’t have to worry about Trevor Lawrence. They didn’t add a whole lot, save for depth, though running back is a bit of a concern with Trevor Etienne gone to New Orleans.

Arizona at LA Chargers, 4:25pmET, (CBS)

LA Chargers: -11.5. ML: Chargers -625/Cardinals +455

Total: 45.5 points.

Arizona might be the worst team in football on paper. Kyler Murray is gone and Jacob Brissett is the likely starter at QB, with rookie Carson Beck vying with Gardner Minshew for the backup spot. The Chargers should be contending in the AFC West. The key is the offensive line and whether they have the depth to withstand the injuries from last season.

Green Bay at Minnesota, 4:25pmET (CBS)

Green Bay -1.5. ML: Packers -125/Vikings +105

Total: 44.5.

An NFC North matchup, as the Packers have the edge at quarterback with Jordan Love. EDGE Micah Parsons is not expected to play due to injuries for the Packers. He might be happy he doesn’t have to chase Kyler Murray, a likely starter at quarterback for the Vikings.

Miami at Las Vegas, 4:25pmET (FOX)

Las Vegas -3. ML: Raiders -175/Dolphins +145.

Total: 41.5.

The Raiders are rare favorites, and that’s likely because they drafted Fernando Mendoza at QB as the top pick overall. Kirk Cousins is the backup but might start the opener if Mendoza is not ready. Miami picked up Malik Willis at quarterback and he doesn’t have the weapons that Tua Tagovailoa has but he does have RB De’Von Archane back to a rebuilding Dolphins offense.

Washington at Philadelphia, 4:25pmET (FOX)

Eagles -5.5. ML: Eagles -238/Commanders +195.

Total: 46.5

The Eagles are trying to avoid the controversies of last season, especially on the offensive end, where AJ Brown is expected to be traded before the season. Washington addressed their defense in the draft, but they need a healthy Jayden Daniels to get back in the mix of the NFC East.

Dallas at NY Giants, 8:20pmET (NBC)

Dallas -2.5. ML: Cowboys -130/Giants +110

Total: 48.5.

Another NFC East matchup, this is about John Harbaugh’s first game in blue instead of purple. There are injury issues concerning WR Malik Nabers (knee), and if he’s not ready, they’ll have to rely on a defense that’s loaded with talented pass rushers. Dallas had major issues in the secondary, and if that’s solved, they could push the Eagles. At some point, the window for Dak Prescott is going to start to close.

Monday, Sept. 14

Denver at Kansas City, 8:15pmET (ESPN/ABC)

KC -2.5. ML: Chiefs -155/Broncos +130

Total: 42.5.

Both quarterbacks are coming off injuries. Box Nix (ankle) should be ready for Denver. The Broncos added WR Jaylen Wadde from Miami, which can’t hurt. Patrick Mahomes is coming off a knee injury and might not be ready. The Chiefs have improved their secondary so they should be back on track.

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  There are five weeks left in the NBA season. The ATS Basketball Financial Program has won 11 of 13 weeks, and average bettors are up nearly $5,000 in that span. Join our Basketball Financial Program for just $199 and get the rest of the regular season and playoffs through mid-June.

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  Big UFC card from the APEX in Vegas this Saturday!

• ATS has won 5 of the last 7 weeks. *ALLEN VS COSTA
  
  One of the better analytical points from early-week MMA betting coverage is that UFC markets are still less efficient than NFL/NBA markets because of information asymmetry and recency bias.
  The common public mistakes this week:
  *Overvaluing recognizable UFC veterans
  *Overreacting to recent knockout wins
  *Ignoring grappling advantages
  *Betting favorites too early before line movement settles