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Author: Mat Daily

Week 1 NFL Betting Previews for Sunday

Posted on by Mat Daily

If you missed yesterday’s blog, I previewed every FBS matchup. On Friday, I’ll preview Sunday’s NFL games with key injuries, last year’s meetings, odds, TV networks/streams, and more. I’ll preview the MNF game on Monday morning.

Early Sunday games

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers

1:00 PM ET — FOX
Current range: Chicago -3; Total: 47

Open: -2.5/45.5.
 
Quarterbacks: Caleb Williams vs. Bryce Young. This is an interesting measuring-stick game for both former No. 1 picks. Williams enters Year 3 in Ben Johnson’s offense, while Young is coming off a much more encouraging 2025 season in which Carolina won the NFC South despite finishing 8-9. The Panthers were only 27th in total offense last season, so Young’s ability to create explosive passes remains important.
 
Key injuries: Chicago WR Rome Odunze and OT Ozzy Trapilo opened the week limited; backup QB Tyson Bagent did not practice. Carolina RB Jonathon Brooks was limited, while LB Patrick Jones II did not practice.
 
Key Trends:
*Underdogs are 8–2–1 ATS in the past 11 Bears–Panthers meetings.

*Carolina 24–32 ATS at home since 2019

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts

1:00 PM ET — CBS
Line: Baltimore -3.5; total around 48.

 
Open: -3.5/48.5.
 
Quarterbacks: Lamar Jackson vs. Daniel Jones. Baltimore again has a major quarterback advantage on paper. The Colts’ challenge is preventing Jackson from creating explosive plays when the initial play breaks down. Indianapolis will want Daniel Jones, coming off a torn Achilles, operating efficiently rather than forcing him into a high-volume shootout. Baltimore’s offense may look a bit different under new OC Declan Doyle. Expect tp see Jackson under center more.
 
Key matchup: Jonathan Taylor against Baltimore’s front. If Indianapolis establishes Taylor and stays ahead of the chains, it can reduce Baltimore possessions and protect Jones. Last season, the Colts with Jones under center was able to beat the LA Chargers 38-24 behind 288 yards passing from Jones and three rushing TDs from Taylor. Why is that signficant? Baltimore head coach Jesse Minter was running the Chargers’ defense. Baltimore did add former Bengals Edge Trey Hendrickson to help a struggling pass rush. 
 

Key Trends:
*Ravens–Colts have gone Under in 13 of their past 15 meetings.
*Daniel Jones is 34–15  Under when playing as an underdog.
*Indianapolis is 12–2 ATS in the past 14 meetings  

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers

1:00 PM ET — FOX
Line: Pittsburgh -3.5/Total 42.

 
Open: -2/41.5.
 
Quarterbacks: Tua Tagovailoa vs. Aaron Rodgers. Both are in new situations. Pittsburgh’s offense under Mike McCarthy should emphasize Rodgers getting the ball out quickly and controlling the game pre-snap. Atlanta wants rhythm throws for Tua and an offense that prevents Pittsburgh’s pressure from taking over. One problem? Tua may have suffered an oblique injury in practice and with Michael Pennix Jr. still returning from a knee injury, the Falcons could go with third-string Cooper Rush on Sunday. 
 
Key matchup: Pittsburgh pass rush vs. Tua or Rush. Both quarterbacks are immobile, especially Rodgers. But Rodgers has DK Metchalf and former Colts’ WR Michael Pittman as big targets. He just needs a little time to throw and he’ll be focused on those two all day. 
 
Two new coaches will debut in this one. Kevin Stefanski moves from Cleveland to Atlanta, while Mike McCarthy is back to coach Rodgers and take over for long-time coach Mike Tomlin, who moved to NBC.
 
Key Trends:

*Pittsburgh has won and covered five consecutive meetings with Atlanta.

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars

1:00 PM ET — CBS

 
Line: Jacksonville about -9; Total 40.5.
 
Open: -7.5/39.5.
 
Quarterbacks: Deshaun Watson vs. Trevor Lawrence. Watson is scheduled to make his first start since 2024. One fascinating career statistic: he enters the matchup 7-0 in his career against Jacksonville. But this Cleveland offense is very different from the teams behind those previous numbers. Jacksonville has the more stable offensive setup around Lawrence and enters after a strong 2025 season.
 
Key Cleveland injury: RG Teven Jenkins left Wednesday’s practice. LB Carson Schwesinger amd DL Maliek Collins were dealing with shoulder/quad issues but were trending toward playing.
 
Jacksonville injuries: LeQuint Allen Jr. and OL Cole Van Lanen were limited and being monitored; WR Jakobi Meyers is expected to play despite a thumb issue.
 
Major roster angle: Cleveland no longer has Myles Garrett, substantially changing its defensive ceiling and pass rush. Todd Monken takes over as head coach. Watson could have a brief stay as a starter if he can’t get off to a fast start. At least he’s on the road, where he can’t get booed.
 
 Key Trends:

*Week 1 underdogs of 6.5 or more are 32–13–1 ATS since 2013.

*Underdogs are 6–1 ATS in the past seven Browns–Jaguars games played in Jacksonville.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals

1:00 PM ET — FOX

Current Line: Cincinnati -3.5; total roughly 50.5.
 
Open: -2.5/52.5.
 
Quarterbacks: Baker Mayfield vs. Joe Burrow. Mayfield finished 2025 with 3,693 passing yards, 26 TDs and 11 INTs and just earned a new deal. Burrow missed nine games after a toe injury last season but still finished with a 100.7 passer rating, 17 TDs and five interceptions on limited attempts.

Since becoming Tampa Bay’s starter, Mayfield is 3-0 in Week 1, with nine TD passes, zero INTs and a 114.5 passer rating. Burrow has an 82.7 passer rating in those early games versus 104.3 from Week 3 onward. However, he and most of the Cincy starters played some in preseason to try and prevent the slow starts.
 
Injuries: Tampa RB Sean Tucker missed practice with a hamstring injury; Jalen McMillan, Rueben Bain Jr., Christian Rozeboom and Justin Skule were limited. Cincinnati received encouraging news with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Shemar Stewart participating fully.
 
Key Trends: 
*Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS last 6 in this series.
 
*Cincy is 4-0 Under in Week 1.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

1:00 PM ET — CBS

Current Line: Buffalo approximately -1; total 45.
 
Open: -2.5/44.5
 

Quarterbacks: Josh Allen vs. C.J. Stroud. The key is Houston’s ability to generate pressure against Allen without blitzing excessively. Houston did exactly that last season. Allen has a new head coach in his OC, Joe Brady. Allen is coming off an MVP season, while Stroud is coming off a miserable postseason. He was intercepted five times in two games,  fumbled five times (losing two) and completed just 51.9% of his passes.

2025 meeting

Houston 23, Buffalo 19. The Texans sacked Allen eight times in that game, with All-Pro pass rushers Will Anderson Jr. (2.5 sacks) and Danielle Hunter (two) accounting for more than 1/2 the sacks. Even more interesting, Houston has now beaten Buffalo at home in each of the previous two seasons. Houston QB CJ Stroud missed the game with a concussion and Davis Mills threw two TDs in his place.

 
Houston injuries:  All 53 players practiced Wednesday, although rookie DT Kayden McDonald was limited.  
 
Buffalo injuries: RB Ty Johnson and DB Jordan Hancock missed Wednesday’s practice; DE T.J. Sanders was limited.
 
Key Trends:

*Buffalo is 44–33 ATS in non-divisional AFC games since 2017.

*Home teams are 7–1 ATS in the past eight meetings.

*The series is 8–1 to the Under in its past nine.

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans

1:00 PM ET — CBS

 
Line:  pick/38.5.
 
Open: Tenn -1.5/38.5.
 
Quarterbacks: Geno Smith vs. Cam Ward. Geno gives the Jets veteran stability, while Ward enters Year 2 after an uneven rookie season. Tennessee’s offensive line allowed 56 sacks in 2025, making protection one of Sunday’s biggest matchup concerns.
 
Jets defensive angle: Rookie edge rusher David Bailey could immediately test Ward and that offensive line. Ward also gets some help in the form of rookie WR Carnell Tate and former Giants receiver Wan’Dale Robinson. The Jets forced just four turnovers in 2025 and did not have an interception for the time in NFL history. The additions of LB Demario Davis and S Minkah Fitzpatrick can’t hurt that unreal stat.
 
Tennessee injury: LB Cedric Gray did not practice because of a concussion; DE Keldric Faulk was a full participant despite a shoulder issue.
 
Interesting coaching angle: Former Jets coach Robert Saleh now faces his old organization with Tennessee, and several former Jets/Giants are also on the Titans roster.
 
Key Trends:
*The Jets are 11–2 ATS in their past 13 meetings with Tennessee.


*The Jets are only 21–42 ATS as road underdogs since 2016.

New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions

1:00 PM ET — FOX
Line: Detroit -7; total 50. 

 
Open: -6.5/48.
 
Quarterbacks: Tyler Shough vs. Jared Goff. Shough showed enough development during 2025 for New Orleans to commit to him, but this is a difficult road environment. Detroit’s ability to generate an early lead would place considerable pressure on the young Saints quarterback. Goff remains at his best when Detroit stays balanced and the play-action game is working. If the protection breaks down, he can struggle.
 
Saints injuries: RB Alvin Kamara opened the week limited. Cameron Jordan, Audric Estimé and TE Oscar Delp did not participate in the initial practice. New Orleans is also dealing with skill-position depth issues.
 

Shough is on the precipice of stardom. At least it appears that way after passing for 10 TDs and rushing for three more in 11 games. Their defense is underrated as they held opponents to 21 or fewer points in eight games last season. Cameron Jordan and Chase Young combined for 20.5 sacks last season, but Jordan will miss this game due to a hamstring injury. 

The Lions are hoping that a revamped offensive line and a new OC in Drew Petzing can help them back on the right track after they finished last in the NFC North in 2025.
 

Key Trends:

*Week 1 underdogs of at least 6.5 points are 32–13–1 ATS since 2013.

LATE GAMES

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers

4:25 PM ET — CBS

Current Line: Chargers -9.5; Total: 47.5.

Open: -10.5/45.5.

Quarterbacks: Jacoby Brissett vs. Justin Herbert. This is a substantial quarterback matchup despite the large spread. Murray’s mobility is Arizona’s best weapon against a Chargers defense capable of winning individual pass-rush matchups. Herbert has the stronger supporting roster and home-field advantage. The key for the Chargers is to protect Herbert, who was sacked 54 times in 2025. New OC Mike McDaniel takes over  and several additions on the offensive line could make the offense very dangerous. 

New coach Mike LaFleur takes over as head coach and is expecdted to start Brissett over Gardner Minshew II, with third-round pick Carson Beck waiting in the wings. WR Marvin Harrison Jr. caught 41 passes for 608 yards and four TDs in 12 games. More is expected from the young receiver this season.

Chargers injuries: Edge Tuli Tuipulotu, RB Keaton Mitchell, WR Brenen Thompson and S R.J. Mickens were limited. CB Deane Leonard missed practice. Khalil Mack’s absence was listed as veteran rest rather than injury.

Arizona’s initial injury report was effectively clean. 

Key Trends:

*Week 1 underdogs of 6.5 or more are 32–13–1 ATS since 2013. 

*Arizona is 35–27 ATS as an underdog since 2021.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

4:25 PM ET — CBS

Current Line: Minnesota approximately -1; Total: 46.

Open: Green Bay -1.5/45.5. 

2025 meetings

Green Bay won the first:
Packers 23, Vikings 6 at Lambeau. Minnesota won the rematch: Vikings 16, Packers 3 in Week 18.

Quarterbacks: Kyler Murray vs. Jordan Love. Love will not have RB Josh Jacobs (suspended) and Romeo Doubs (FA), but they still have plenty of talent surrounding him, led by WR Christian Watson. Murray is looking for a reset under head coach Kevin O’Connell. Minnesota also needed a fresh QB after missing the playoffs at 9-8 with the erratic J.J. McCarthy, who is now their third string QB.

Injuries: Minnesota’s opening report was relatively clean — three rookies appeared on it. Green Bay had significantly more names: Aaron Banks, Jordan Morgan, Javon Hargrave, Devonte Wyatt and Barryn Sorrell were among those limited, while Ty’Ron Hopper and Warren Brinson did not practice. Edge Micah Parsons (knee) will miss the first month or so.

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders

4:25 PM ET — FOX

Current Line: Las Vegas -3; Total: 40.5.

Open: -3/39.5.

Quarterback: Miami begins the Malik Willis and Jeff Hafley era after moving on from Tua Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel. Las Vegas enters a new era under head coach Klint Kubiak.Miami also moved on from Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, leaving the Dolphins with one of the NFL’s youngest rosters. Kirk Cousins will start at QB until top-pick Fernando Mendoza is ready to play.

Miami offensive key: De’Von Achane. His speed and ability to create explosive runs could relieve a great deal of pressure from Willis.

Major Raiders injury: TE Brock Bowers did not practice Wednesday because of a knee injury. He is expected to miss a game or two. RB Ashton Jeanty was a full participant despite an ankle injury.

Miami: Ronnie Harrison Jr. and TE Will Kacmarek were limited.

Key Trends:

*Kirk Cousins is 9–24 ATS as a home favorite since 2019.

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles

4:25 PM ET — FOX

Current Line: Philadelphia -4.5; total 44.5.

Open: -4/47.5.

Quarterbacks: Jayden Daniels vs. Jalen Hurts. Both QBs had disappointing seasons in 2025. The Eagles also lost WR A.J. Brown to new England and drafted Makai Lemon in the first round. New OC Sean Mannion takes over to for the Eagles. In Washington, they hired two new coordinators and are hoping their OLine can protect Daniels,w ho missed more than half of the season in 2025 and his completion rate went from 69% as a rooke to 60.6% last season.

Last year’s games:

Philadelphia won the first:
Eagles 29, Commanders 18.Washington won the Week 18 rematch:
Commanders 24, Eagles 17.

Philly’s injuries: Edge Jonathan Greenard returned to practice on a limited practice. TE Eli Stowers was limited by a hamstring injury. 

Washington injuries: K’Lavon Chaisson, Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Odafe Oweh were limited. Nick Allegretti and Marcus Mariota were full participants. A particularly important issue is Washington’s offensive line. LT Laremy Tunsil’s biceps injury plus questions at center could create favorable interior matchups for Philadelphia’s defensive tackles.

Key Trends:

*Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts enter this game having gone 6-0 in Week 1 together.

*Divisional road underdogs of 6.5 or fewer are 22–12–1 ATS since 2013.

*Philadelphia counters with Nick Sirianni’s 20–11 ATS record as a single-digit home favorite.

*Washington is only 20–34 ATS against NFC East opponents since 2017.

SUNDAY NIGHT

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

8:20 PM ET — NBC

Line: Dallas -2.5; Total 48.5.

Open: -2.5/48.

Quarterbacks: Dak Prescott vs. Jaxson Dart. This is a fascinating contrast. Prescott is 14-3 SU against the Giants in his career. Across those games, he has thrown 31 touchdown passes and carries a 101.5 passer rating. John Harbaugh takes over for a talented Giants team led by QB Dart and RB Cam Skattebo. They also should have WR Malik Nabers (knee) in the lineup. Dart ran a lot as a rookie, rushing for nine TDs last season.

Abdul Carter, Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux give New York a potentially dangerous edge-rush group. That creates a fascinating matchup because Dallas was only 19th in pass-block win rate in 2025, although it ranked 11th in run-block win rate.  

Last year’s games:
Dallas won an overtime shootout but did not cover the 4.5; Cowboys 40, Giants 37. The Gaints upset the Cowbys in the second game 34-17 as a 3-point dog.

Dallas injury concern: Starting LG Tyler Smith is out following thumb surgery. 

**********************************************************************************************

The “New” ATS Weekly Gaming Review is available for FREE. Vol. 3 is full of stats, trends, picks, power ratings, key injuries and more.  

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Upcoming and Current Events at ATS:

ATS Football set for another huge season!  NFL kicks off next Wednesday, September 9!

UFC has won 7 of the last 9 weeks. Discounts are available.

Hockey starts on September 29!
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Week 1 of the NFL kicks off this week! Double winner on Thursday with the Niners and the Under! There were many winners in Week 1 of College Football, including UMass (+29) outright over Rutgers! UFC wins 7 of the last 9 weeks. Is now on a 35-unit run! This week's card is in Arizona.

Week 2 College Football Betting Previews for Friday and Saturday

Posted on by Mat Daily

Week 1 of the NFL kicks of this week! There were many winners in Week 1 of College Football, including UMass (+29) outright over Rutgers! UFC Wins 7 of the last 9 weeks. Is now on a 35-unit run! This week's card in Arizona.

Who else would preview every FBS college football match up from Friday to Saturday, adding Thursday’s NFL matchup from Australia? 

49ers vs. Rams — Thursday, Melbourne

8:35pmET. Melbourne Cricket Ground. Current line: Rams: -4.5, total: 48.  

Last year: Nov. 9 LA Rams (-5.5) over SAN FRAN 42-26; Oct. 2 San Fran (+7.5) over LA RAMS 26-23ot.

This will be the NFL’s first regular-season game in Melbourne.

Analysis:

The Rams have had one of the best offseasons in NFL history, but will not have future Hall of Fame DT Aaron Donald, who is coming out of retirement, but is not travelling to Melbourne for this game. 

The odd thing about this game is that the Rams will depart on Tuesday night to fly 8,000 miles from LA to Melbourne. Star WR Puka Nacua has had a rocky offseason, but had 15 catches in two games against the 49ers last season. He also owned the rest of the league with 129 catches for 1,715 yards and 10 TDs last season, but has dealt with groin/hip soreness in camp.

The Niners just need to stay healthy, but they won’t be near 100% in the first game. WR Mike Evans was their big off-season pickup and they also brought back Deebo Samuel, who was with Washington last season. Despite numerous injuries, including an ACL tear to Edge Nick Bosa, the 49ers finished 12-5 last season. 

A healthy Christian McCaffrey is particularly important. He produced 1,202 rushing yards plus 924 receiving yards last season, making him one of the league’s biggest matchup problems.

Injury Angle:

The good news for the Rams is that DE Myles Garrett (knee) will play

DE Nick Bosa will play, while RB Christian McCaffrey and WR Mike Evans returned to full participation Tuesday. T George Kittle has also been practicing at full speed, although his game status has carried some uncertainty coming back from his Achilles injury.

College Football

Friday, September 11

Rutgers at Boston College — 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2

Odds: Boston College -3½ | Total 54.

Last games: Rutgers suffered one of Week 1’s biggest surprises, losing 37-21 to UMass. Boston College also enters 0-1.

Quarterbacks: This is especially interesting because Rutgers is changing quarterbacks. Dylan Lonergan threw for 242 yards and two TDs but also three interceptions against UMass before being injured. AJ Surace will start Friday. Surace brings more mobility and potentially more vertical-passing ability, but this is a difficult environment for his first start.

Boston College’s offensive advantage is more about avoiding mistakes and attacking a Rutgers defense that surrendered more than 200 rushing yards against UMass.

No. 23 Missouri at Kansas — 8 p.m., FOX

Odds: Missouri -5½ | Total 50½.

The Border War moves to Friday.

Last games: Missouri demolished FCS Arkansas-Pine Bluff 54-14. Kansas beat FCS LIU 51-6.

Quarterbacks: Ole Miss transfer Austin Simmons was outstanding last week: 17-of-19 for 252 yards and four touchdowns before halftime. Kansas QB Isaiah Marshall generated 246 passing yards, two TDs and another 49 rushing yards.

Simmons currently looks like the more polished downfield passer, but Marshall’s mobility gives Kansas a second dimension that Missouri did not have to defend in Week 1.

Kansas and Missouri won’t meet until the 2031 and ’32 seasons unless they face each other in the playoffs.

Saturday, September 12

No. 6 Oregon at Oklahoma State — Noon, ESPN

Odds: Oregon -23 | Total 57½.

Last games: Oregon survived Boise State 34-27 after trailing by 10 in the first half. Oklahoma State lost at Tulsa.

Quarterbacks: Oklahoma State QB Drew Mestemaker threw for 241 yards in the opener. Oregon has Heisman candidate Dante Moore, throw for 378 yards and three TDs. But the Ducks committed 10 penalties for 90 yards and allowed the Broncos to compete the entire game. 

The Ducks destroyed Oklahoma State 69-3 last season.

No. 11 Oklahoma at Michigan — Noon, FOX

Odds: Oklahoma -5½ | Total 43½.

Last games: Oklahoma crushed UTEP 51-0. Michigan escaped Western Michigan 13-12 on a last-play Hail Mary , which was a second attempt after the Wolverines were gifted an extra second.

Quarterbacks: Oklahoma QB John Mateer threw three TDs in Week 1. Michigan’s Bryce Underwood passed for 170 yards and ran for another 47, but Michigan managed only 276 total yards.

The QB matchup favors Oklahoma right now because Mateer is operating inside a functioning offense. Underwood’s raw talent is tremendous, but Michigan needs better protection and more easy throws. Can they use last week’s last-second play to bolster their chances or will karma bite them badly?

Arizona State at No. 10 Texas A&M — Noon, ABC

Odds: Texas A&M -14½ | Total 50½.

Last games: Arizona State smashed FXS Morgan State 70-7; A&M shut out Missouri State 50-0 while allowing only 67 yards.

Quarterbacks: ASU’s Cutter Boley threw for 387 yards and six TDs. This is a massive step up in class and his first major road test.

For A&M, quarterback play does not have to be spectacular if the defense and running game control the matchup. But Marcel Reed is an experienced starter, which is rare in today’s game. He threw for 3,169 yards with 25 TDs and 12 picks last season for the Aggies.

Injuries: Texas A&M WR Micah Williams is out, while WR Jerome Myles has been listed questionable with a leg issue.

Appalachian State at East Carolina — Noon, ESPNU

Odds: East Carolina -7½ | Total 56½.

ECU is coming off a 48-10 loss at Alabama, although that score reflects an enormous jump in opponent quality. Appalachian State had an easy win over FCS Maine 55-3. 

QB analysis: ECU’s quarterback should have considerably more time and cleaner throwing windows than he had against Alabama. App State’s key is creating explosive passes rather than trying to win a methodical possession game. Malachi Singleton completed 22 of 24 for 291 yards with 3 TDs last week. ECU’s QB is Mitch Griffis, who struggled last week against an elite Alabama defense. He had some success at Wake Forest, throwing for 1,553 yards with nine TDs and seven picks in nine games.

Wake Forest at Purdue — Noon, FS1

Odds: Wake Forest -3 | Total 49½.

Last games: Wake beat Akron 38-16. Gio Lopez, a North Carolina transfer, threw for 350 yards and three TDs. Purdue handled FCS Indiana State 44-19. Purdue QB Ryan Browne threw for 317 yards and three TDs. The Minnesota transfer added 87 rushing yards and a score. Louisivlle trasnfer WR had a 72-yard TD reception for the Demon Deacs.

Old Dominion at Virginia Tech — Noon, CW

Odds: Virginia Tech -19 | Total 50.

Virginia Tech has the obvious roster edge, but ODU games against regional Power-conference opponents have often become emotionally charged. They beat the Hokies last season 45-26 as a 5.5-point dog on the road. James Franklin will attempt to reverse that in his first FBS game.

QB analysis: Tech should get a test in this one after demolishing FCS VMI by 70 in the first game. Ethan Grunkemeyer joined Franklin from Penn State. He stepped in for the injured Drew Allar last season and threw for 1,339 yards with 8 TDs and 4 INTs. ODU, who downed Norfolk State 31-10, was led by QB Quinn Henicle, throwing for two TDs and rushing for two TDs. 

Penn State at Temple — Noon, ESPN2

Odds: Penn State -24 | Total 49½.

Last game: Penn State shut out Marshall 45-0.

Penn State is coming off an easy win to start the Matt Campbell era. His former QB Rocco Becht at Iowa State, threw for 271 yards with four TDs against Marshall. Temple used two QBs last week in their 38-14 win over FCS Rhode Island. Ajani Sheppard and Jaxon Smolik were mediocre, combining for 142 yards and 9-of-16 passing..

South Florida at Army — Noon, CBS Sports Network

Odds: Army -3½ | Total 46½.

Army’s option-based offense generated more than 500 rushing yards in Week 1 against FCS Bryant (59-3 win). USF had trouble against FIU, winning 19-9 at home.

USF QB Michael van Buren threw for just 100 yards last week on 11-of-18. The Bulls will need to slow down the Army rushing attack to have a chance.

Washington State at Kansas State — Noon, TNT

Odds: Kansas State -17½ | Total 49.

Washington State lost to rival Washington 24-10 last Sunday. K-State had an easy 71-3 win over FCS Nicholls. 

The Cougars are led by QB Caden Pinnick, who threw two picks against the Huskies. Pinnick also had 61 rushing yards and a score. He will likely have to play without top WR Tony Freeman, who caught 54 passes for 590 yards last year for Washington State, but suffered a knee injury in the first quarter of their last game. As for K-State, Avery Johnson threw for 199 yards and three TDs before leaving in the blowout. 

Western Kentucky at No. 2 Georgia — 12:45 p.m., SEC Network

Odds: Georgia -40½ | Total 55½.

Georgia crushed Tennessee State 63-3 last week. Western Kentucky lost at Nevada, 49-14 as a 1.5-point favorite..

WKU QB Rodney Tisdale completed 24 of 40 for 203 yards with no TDs and no picks. He threw for 1,432 yards last season with 9 TDs and 7 INTs.

No. 12 Alabama at Kentucky — 3:30 p.m., ABC

Odds: Alabama -10½ | Total 49½.

Last games: Alabama beat ECU 48-10; Kentucky opened the Will Stein era with a 45-13 victory over FCS Youngstown State.

Quarterbacks: Alabama sophomore Keelon Russell passed for 256 yards and led Alabama with 86 rushing yards. Kentucky senior Kenny Minchey threw for 301 yards and four TDs.

This is an excellent QB contrast: Russell’s dual-threat explosiveness against Minchey’s more conventional passing production.

Rice at No. 3 Notre Dame — 3:30 p.m., NBC/Peacock

Odds: Notre Dame -44½ | Total 55.

Notre Dame beat Wisconsin 41-13 in Green Bay after a slow start. Rice crushed FCS Houston Christian 31-3 at home. The Owls rushed for 465 yards and four TDs in this game.

ND QB CJ Carr completed 19 of 29 for 239 yards with two TDs against the Badgers. Tyvonn Byars led Rice with 104 yards on 16 carries. QB Jacurri Brown added 98 rushing yards, but threw just five times.  Brown is a senior, who has played sparingly at UCF and Miami-Fla.

Arizona at No. 15 BYU — 3:30 p.m., FOX

Odds: BYU -7½ | Total 48.

BYU demolished FCS Utah Tech 63-7 in its opener. Arizona beat FCS Northern Arizona 35-7 last week.

QB analysis: Two of the best QBs in the Big 12 meet. Arizona’s Noah Fifita is the FBS active leader in touchdown passes with 75. BYU RQB Bear Bachmeier threw for 3,033 yards and 15 RDS and ran for 11 more as a freshman. Senior BYU RB LJ Martin led the Big 12 in rushing with 1,305 yards. 

Last season, the Cougars beat Arizona 33-27 in overtime on the road.

UCF at Pittsburgh — 3:30 p.m., ESPN2

Odds: Pitt -7 | Total 57.

UCF opened with a 73-6 rout of FCS Bethune-Cookman. Pitt dominated Miami-Ohio 59-14 at home.

QB angle: Pitt QB Mason Heintschel threw for 453 yards with seven TD passes to set an ACC single-game mark. Alonza Barnett III completed 11 of 18 for 158 yards for UCF in their easy win over Bethune-Cookman. Louisville tranfser RB Duke Watson added 110 yards and a TD on seven carries.

California at Syracuse — 3:30 p.m., ACC Network

Odds: Syracuse -3½ | Total 57.

Cal is coming off a 45-24 home loss to UCLA. Syracuse destroyed FCS New Hampshire 66-3. 

Cal QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele therw for 271 yards with two TDs and two picks against UCLA, but is very highly regarded. The problem for Cal was their rush defense, which allowed 277 rushing yards and six TDs against UCLA. Cuse QB Steve Angeli (began his career at Notre Dame) threw for 3 TDs in the opener and 1,317 yards last season with 10 TDs and two picks in four games. 

Maryland at UConn — 3:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network

Odds: Maryland -13½ | Total 52½.

Maryland crushed FCS Hampton 62-0. Malik Washington passed for 186 yards and a TD while Maryland used multiple quarterbacks. UConn handled FCS Lafayette 56-7 as the Huskies put up a program-record 671 yards. Jason Candle, a former Toledo coach, has 87 new players. He brought his QB Kalieb Osbourne with him to Stors. He completed 19 of 26 for 265 yards against the Leopards. 

UTSA at Texas State — 3:30 p.m., CW

Odds: Texas State -1½ | Total 66.

Texas State is coming off a 59-7 loss at Texas, while UTSA beat FCS UTRGV 45-16.

QB angle: UTSA starts Owen McCown, who has been a solid starter for the last two seasons, tossing for 55 TDs and 17 picks.  Texas State will go with Brad Jackson, who threw for 3,224 yards with 27 TDs and seven picks, while rushing for 17 TDs last year. 

Last season, Texas State beat UTSA 43-36 on the road last season as a 5.5-point dog.

Mississippi State at Minnesota — 3:30 p.m., CBS

Odds: Pick’em | Total 55½.

Minnesota destroyed FCS Eastern Illinois 59-7 in Week 1. Mississippi State beat ULM 62-13 in their opener.

This is the first time Minnesota will be hosting an SEC team since 1959. They’ll be facing a Miss State that amassed a school-record 762 yards of total offense last week, including 354 yards passing from Kamario Taylor. Minnesota piled up 495 yards last week, including two punt-return TDs by Javon Tracy. The key will be the play of Dake Lindsey, who threw for 264 yards and a TD.

UNLV at North Texas — 3:45 p.m., ESPNU

Odds: UNLV -3 | Total 57½.

North Texas lost 52-16 at Indiana, while UNLV is 1-1 after beating Hawaii 21-6 last week. That came after a tough 27-21 home loss to Memphis on Aug 29.

UNLV QB Jackson Arnold struggled againaw Hawaii, throwing for just 116 yards, but ran for 89 yards with two TDs. He did throw for 291 yards and two TDs against Memphis. Tayven Jackson therw for 192 yards with a TD against Indiana, one of his former teams.

UNLV has two skill-position injuries to monitor: WR T. Stellato and RB S. Vann are questionable.

Eastern Michigan at Michigan State-3:30pmET,

Odds: Mich State -18.5/Total: 50.5.

MSU beat Toledo 30-20 last week at home, while Eastern Michigan fell at home against San Jose State 27-21.

Noah Kim is the starting QB for Eastern Michigan and has 453 yards passing with three TDs and one pick in two games. He began his career at Michigan State. The Spartans are led by QB Alessio Milivojevic threw for 247 yards with a TD in the opener. Last season, he threw for 1,267 yards with 10 TDs and 3 picks.

Utah State at Washington, -3:30pmET

Odds: Wash -27.5/Total: 55.5.

Washington won the Apple Cup with a 24-10 win over Washington State on Sunday. Demon Williams Jr. completed 24 of 34 for 268 yards and rushed for 61 yards. Utah State was shocked by FCS Idaho State last week, 29-17. McCae Hillstead completed just 15 of 30 for 178 yards with two TDs and three picks, before being replaced.

Jacksonville State at Ohio — 6 p.m., ESPN+

Odds: Ohio -3 | Total 51.

JSU crushed FCS Kentucky 49-7 last week; Ohio fell at Nebraska 49-21.  JSU is 1-1 after losing to North Dakota State 33-7 on Aug 29.

Ohio QB Nick Poulos struggled against Nebraska, completing 14 of 31 for 164 yards and a TD. He’s been a backup for the Bobcats in his first two seasons. Caden Creel threw for 327 yards with five TDs and a pick last week for JSU. The 6-foot QB rushed for 1,076 yards last season and passed for 1,514 yards.

Ohio WR R. Perry is dealing with an injury and has been considered unlikely to play.

Memphis at Boise State — 6 p.m., USA Network

Odds: Boise State -8½ | Total 55.

Last game: Boise lost a competitive 34-27 game at Oregon; Memphis is 2-0 after beating UNLV on the road on Aug. 29 27-21 and Arkansas State 42-24 last week.

QB analysis: Boise State hung in the game against Oregon, despite giving up 497 yards and producing just 274. QB Maddux Madsen threw for three TDs. Last season, he completed just 58.3% of his passes for 2,334 yards with 18 TDs and nine picks. Memphis QB Marcus Stokes completed 12 of 15 for 188 yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTS last week against Ark State. The D2 transfer from West Florida (they are now FCS), is playing in his first season in FBS.

Buffalo at FIU — 6 p.m., ESPN+

Odds: FIU -10½ | Total 47½.

Buffalo escaped FCS Albany 21-17 in its opener. FIU lost at USF 19-9 last week. 

QB analysis: Buffalo was down 17-14 late in the game against Albany before Elijah Holmes threw a 5-yard TD pass with 4:53 left for the game-winner. Holmes threw for 189 yards with three TDs and no picks. The senior is a transfer from Wingate. FIU covered last week, but they could have won had they been more efficient. JJ Kohl threw for 301 yards with a TD, but was also picked off twice. The App State transfer threw for 1,465 yards with 12 TDs and 2 picks last season.

No. 18 Tennessee at Georgia Tech — 7 p.m., ESPN

Odds: Tennessee -11½ to -12½ | Total approximately 55½.

Last games: Tennessee rolled Furman 56-9. Georgia Tech lost a heartbreaker to Colorado 14-13.

Quarterbacks: Tennessee freshman Faizon Brandon passed for 226 yards in the opener.

Georgia Tech’s quarterback  Alberto Mendoza, the younger brother of Fernando, threw for 237 yards against Colorado, but did not throw a TD pass or a pick.  

Injuries: Tennessee LB J. Harmon is out for the season with an ACL injury, although standout Arion Carter returns from suspension.

South Alabama at Tulane — 7 p.m., ESPN+

Odds: Tulane -9½ | Total 49½.

USA defeated FCS SE Louisiana 39-14 in their opener; Tulane fell at Duke 17-3 and didn’t cover the 9.5. 

So Alabama QB Bishop Davenport threw for 154 yards with a TD and had a rushing TD in the opener. Last season, he passed for 2,073 yards with 12 TDs and 6 picks, while rushing for 325 yards and nine TDs. Kadin Semonza threw for 140 yards in the opener for Tulane. The 5-11 QB had success for Ball State last season with 2,904 yards passing with 25 TDs, and 10 picks.  

Injury: Tulane RB J. McClure is questionable with a foot injury.

Tulsa at Sam Houston — 7 p.m., ESPN+

Odds: Tulsa -13½ | Total 51½.

Tulsa enters with confidence after beating Oklahoma State 24-10 at home as a 2-TD underdog. Sam Houston fell at Troy 24-21 but covered the 16.5 in their opener. 

Tulsa QB Baylor Hayes threw for 228 yards with a TD and a pick. He threw for 2,158 yards with 12 TDs and six picks last season. SHU QB Landyn Locke threw for 335 yards with three TDs and a pick in the opener. He threw for 765 yards with four TDs and four INTs in six games last season.

Middle Tennessee at Marshall — 7 p.m., ESPN+

Odds: Marshall -13 | Total 57.

Marshall fell 45-0 at Penn State last week, while MTU beat FCS Murray State 38-14.

QB angle:  Roman Gagliano threw for 200 yards with two TDs in the opener for MTU. He threw for 1,005 yards last season for the Blue Raiders in five games. Carlos Del Rio-Wilson struggled in the opener, with just 102 yards passing. He threw for 2,043 yards passing with 17 TDs and five INTs last season. 

Georgia State at Kennesaw State — 7 p.m., ESPN+

Odds: Kennesaw State -9 | Total 54½.

Georgia State beat FCS NC A&T 59-10, while Kennesaw State destroyed FCS West Georgia 47-0.

Georgia State QB Cameran Brown threw for 190 yards with two TDs last week. He had 13 TD passes and just one pick last season for the Panthers. Rickie Collins threw for 156 yards and one TD, while rushing for 51 yards and two TDs for Kennesaw State last week. He played for Syracuse last season, throwing for 1,042 yards with 6 TDs and 10 INTs last season.

San Diego State at UCLA — 7:15 p.m., Big Ten Network

Odds: UCLA -11½ | Total 55.

UCLA’s rushing attack was one of the positive Week 1 stories. They dominated Cal 45-24 on the road; SD State beat FCS Portland State 53-20.  

Jayden Denegal threw for 137 yards with 2 TDs and a pick last week. Last season, he threw for 1,807 yards with nine TDs and eight picks for the Aztecs. Nico Iamaleava threw for 184 yards with a pick, but was helped by RB Anthony Woods, who rushed for 118 yards and two TDs. Wayne Knight added 71 yards and three rushing TDs.

Important QB injury: UCLA QB T. Dieffenbach is questionable with an undisclosed injury.

Georgia Southern at Clemson — 7:30 p.m., ACC Network

Odds: Clemson -20½ | Total 56.

Clemson was embarrassed 51-10 at LSU. Geo Southern dominated Charleston Southern 31-0.

QB analysis:  Clemson QB Christopher Vizzina had a rough opener with 83 yards passing and a pick. Max Johnson, a former UNC, Texas A&M and LSU QB goes for the Eagles. He threw for 281 yards with a TD in the opener. 

Navy at Florida Atlantic — 7:30 p.m., ESPNU

Odds: Navy -5 | Total 58½.

Navy topped 500 rushing yards in its opener, a 42-15 win over FCS Towson. FAU was roughed up at Floida 66-21. 

QB analysis: Braxton Woodson threw for 21 yards in the option offense, but ran for 200 yards and three TDs in the opener. Caden Veltkamp threw for 276 yards with a TD and two picks in the opener. The WKU transfer had 25 TDs and 10 picks last season for the Hilltoppers.

Last year: Navy beat FAU 42-32 but didn’t cover the 14.5.

Iowa State at No. 21 Iowa — 7:30 p.m., NBC/Peacock

Odds: Iowa  -14 | Total 40½.

Iowa shut out Northern Illinois 40-0, while Iowa State beat FCS SE Missouri 38-10.

Last season: Iowa State (-3.5) over Iowa 16-13.

QB angle: Arkansas State transfer QB Jaylen Raynor passed for 2 TDs and for 2 more in the opener for the Cyclones. Iowa played two QBs in the opener with Hank Brown throwing for 129 yards with a TD and Jeremey Hecklinsi completing just 7 of 16 for 76 yards with a TD and a pick.  

No. 1 Ohio State at No. 4 Texas — 7:30 p.m., ABC

Odds: Texas -1½ | Total 49.

This is the game of the weekend.

Last games: Ohio State routed Ball State 56-3. Texas crushed Texas State 59-7.

Quarterbacks: Ohio State’s Julian Sayin was 21-of-25 for 320 yards and three TDs. Texas has Arch Manning, whose arm talent and ability to attack vertically are the biggest challenge for Ohio State’s rebuilt secondary.

Sayin has arguably the best receiver in the nation in Jeremiah Smith. Texas counters with Ryan Wingo and Cam Coleman.

Injuries: Ohio State WR K. Parker is questionable. Texas WR D. McCutcheon and OL T. Goosby are also questionable.

No. 13 Texas Tech at Oregon State — 7:30 p.m., CBS

Odds: Texas Tech -26½ | Total 53½.

Texas Tech beat FCS Abilene Christian 33-10 but failed to produce the blowout many expected. Oregon State lost at Houston 33-20 but covered the 20.

QB angle: Will Hammond threw for 298 yards, a TD, and a pick in the opener for Texas Tech. OSU QB Braden Atkinson threw for 376 yards with a TD against Houston last week.

Southern Miss at Auburn — 7:45 p.m., SEC Network

Odds: Auburn -33 | Total 57.

Auburn survived Baylor 17-16 in Week 1. So Miss beat up on FCS Alcorn State 49-3, covering the 19.5 last week.

QB analysis: Auburn QB Byrum Brown threw for 259 yards, but also had 3 picks.  He played four seasons for USF.  Ethan Hampton threw for 180 yards and a TD for the Eagles. Hampton had four seasons of experience at Northern Illinois.

Arkansas at No. 20 Utah — 10:15 p.m., ESPN

Odds: Utah -12½ | Total 54½.

Utah crushed FCS Idaho 66-14 in its opener. Arkansas took care of FCS North Alabama 31-14, but didn’t cover.

QB analysis: Arkansas QB KJ Jackson threw for 267 yards and three TDs with a pick. Devon Dampier threw for 3 TDs in the opener. The 5-11 QB threw for 2,490 yards with 24 TDs, 5 INTs and 10 rushing TDs. 

Louisiana at No. 14 USC — 11 p.m., Big Ten Network

Odds: USC -31 | Total 60.

USC blanked Fresno State 39-0 as Jayden Maiava threw for 349 yards and three touchdowns. That was after beating SJ State 42-26 in the opener. Louisiana beat FCS Lamar 38-7. QB D’Wayne Winfield threw for 189 yards and ran for 84 with two TDs, but he alsot threw two picks.

USC freshman receivers Trent Mosley and Kayden Dixon-Wyatt both went over 100 yards, giving Maiava an increasingly dangerous group of targets.

Injuries: USC has several offensive players listed questionable, including TE T. Ashcraft, WRs R. Tezeno and T. Anderson, and backup QB Sam Huard.

New Mexico State at Hawai’i — 11:59 p.m. ET

Odds: Hawai’i -7 | Total 50.

NM State beat FCS Mercyhurst 5-14 in their opener. They fell at Florida State 34-17 in their opener on Aug. 31. but covered the 31.5. Hawai’i opened with a 37-27 loss at Stanford, before falling to UNLV 21-6 at home last week to start 0-2.

QB angle: Hawai’i QB Micah Alejado struggled against UNLV, completing 17 of 41 for 176 yards. He threw for 3,106 yards with 24 TDs and nine picks last season. Trey Hedden is a Furman transfer who has thrown for 525 yards with four TDs and one pick in two game for the Aggies.

******************************************************************************************************

The “New” ATS Weekly Gaming Review is available for FREE. Vol. 3 is full of stats, trends, picks, power ratings, key injuries and more.  

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Upcoming and Current Events at ATS:

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NFL Week 1 Betting Previews for Wednesday and Thursday

Posted on by Mat Daily

Week 1 of the NFL kicks off on Wednesday, September 9!! ATS There were many winners in Week 1 of College Football, including UMass (+29) outright over Rutgers! UFC Wins 7 of the last 9 weeks. Is now on a 35-unit run!

New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks — Wednesday

8pmET from Lumen Field. Weather: 71 degrees.

Current line: Seattle -3.5, total 44.5.

Moneyline: Sea -170; NE +155

Last game: Seattle (-5.5/45.5)  won the Super Bowl matchup 29-13 in February.

Analysis:

Seattle’s defensive front owned the last game in the Super Bowl and that’s a worry again for the Pats if they can’t protect Drake Maye. Head coach Mike Macdonald can generate pressure without having to blitz heavily, allowing Seattle to keep seven defenders in coverage.

The Patriots are seeking revenge after going 14-3 last season. The Pats averaged 28.8 points and allowed only 18.8 per game. They’ll face a talented Seahawks offense that will be without Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III, who joined Kansas City. He will be replaced by Zach Charbonnet and rookie Jadarian Price. 

Good news for the Patriots is that star CB Christian Gonzalez received his big contract extension two day for teh game and will face star WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Smith-Njigba was the AP Offensive Player of the Year last season with 119 catches for 1,793 yards. 

Maye set a franchise record with a completion percentage of 72% with 4,394 passing yards, 31 TDs, and eight picks in 2025. He gains a proven No. 1 WR in A.J. Brown, and they also bring in Romeo Doubs from the Packers to improve the passing game.

Injury angle

New England center Ben Brown is OUT with a knee injury, while RB TreVeyon Henderson is OUT with an ankle injury, according to the latest NFL injury report. Seattle safety Ty Okada is OUT, while S Nick Emmanwori and WR Tory Horton are questionable.  

Prop Bet: Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime TD scorer +140

(odds from Draft Kings)

49ers vs. Rams — Thursday, Melbourne

8:35pmET. Melbourne Cricket Ground. Current line: Rams: -4.5, total: 48. 

Money Line: LA Rams -200/San Fran +172.

Last year: Nov. 9 LA Rams (-5.5) over SAN FRAN 42-26; Oct. 2 San Fran (+7.5) over LA RAMS 26-23ot.

This will be the NFL’s first regular-season game in Melbourne.

Analysis:

The Rams have had one of the best offseasons in NFL history, but will not have future Hall of Fame DT Aaron Donald, who is coming out of retirement, but is not travelling to Melbourne for this game. 

The odd thing about this game is that the Rams will depart on Tuesday night to fly 8,000 miles from LA to Melbourne. Star WR Puka Nacua has had a rocky offseason, but had 15 catches in two games against the 49ers last season. He also owned the rest of the league with 129 catches for 1,715 yards and 10 TDs last season, but has dealt with groin/hip soreness in camp.

The Niners just need to stay healthy, but they won’t be near 100% in the first game. WR Mike Evans was their big off-season pickup and they also brought back Deebo Samuel, who was with Washington last season. Despite numerous injuries, including an ACL tear to Edge Nick Bosa, the 49ers finished 12-5 last season. 

A healthy Christian McCaffrey is particularly important. He produced 1,202 rushing yards plus 924 receiving yards last season, making him one of the league’s biggest matchup problems.

Injury Angle:

The good news for the Rams is that DE Myles Garrett (knee) will play

SF DE Nick Bosa will play, while RB Christian McCaffrey and WR Mike Evans returned to full participation Tuesday. T George Kittle has also been practicing at full speed, although his game status has carried some uncertainty coming back from his Achilles injury.

Prop Bets: 
Anytime TD scorer: Mike Evans +190
(odds from Draft Kings)

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The “New” ATS Weekly Gaming Review is available for FREE. Vol. 3 is full of stats, trends, picks, power ratings, key injuries and more.  

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Upcoming and Current Events at ATS:

  • ATS Football set for another huge season!  NFL kicks off next Wednesday, September 9!
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Betting the 2026 NFL: How much do Stats, Trends, Injuries and Offseason Moves Matter?

Posted on by Mat Daily

Week 1 of the NFL kicks off on Wednesday, September 9!! ATS There were many winners in Week 1 of College Football, including UMass (+29) outright over Rutgers! UFC Wins 7 of the last 9 weeks. Is now on a 35-unit run!

The NFL is one of the most heavily analyzed and efficiently priced betting markets in sports. Sportsbooks have access to enormous amounts of information, sophisticated models and immediate market feedback. That means successful handicapping can’t simply consist of deciding which team is better.

The real objective is to determine whether the betting line accurately reflects how good those teams are right now.

Heading into the 2026 season, four areas deserve particular attention: statistics, betting trends, injuries and offseason personnel changes. Used together, they can provide a much more complete picture of a matchup than any one category can provide by itself.

1. Statistics: Look Beyond the Final Score

Wins and losses tell us what happened. Good statistics can help explain why it happened—and whether it’s likely to happen again.

A team can win 27-17 and still be outplayed for much of the game. A turnover returned for a touchdown, short fields or a special-teams play can dramatically alter the final score.

That’s why NFL handicappers should dig deeper.

Some particularly useful statistics include yards per play, success rate, third-down efficiency, red-zone efficiency, pressure and sack rates, explosive plays, rushing efficiency, turnover differential and points per drive.

The key is separating repeatable performance from potentially unsustainable results.

Suppose a team starts 4-1 but has been badly outgained on a per-play basis while benefiting from an unusually favorable turnover margin. The public sees a 4-1 football team. A handicapper should be asking whether the underlying numbers suggest that team is overpriced.

That distinction—team record versus team performance—can create betting value.

2. ATS Trends: Understanding How Teams Perform Against Expectations

Straight-up records measure victories.

Against-the-spread records measure performance relative to market expectations.

That’s a crucial distinction.

A 12-win team isn’t automatically a profitable betting team. If bookmakers continually force bettors to lay inflated prices with it, the team can win games while consistently failing to cover.

This is why situational ATS records can be valuable. Among the categories worth tracking during 2026 are:

  • Home ATS record
  • Road ATS record
  • Neutral-site ATS record
  • ATS following a bye
  • ATS following a straight-up victory
  • ATS following a straight-up loss
  • Favorite versus underdog performance
  • Division games
  • Conference versus non-conference games
  • Short-rest and extended-rest situations

But trends require context.

A team being 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games is interesting. It isn’t automatically a reason to bet that team in Game 11.

Ask why the trend exists.

Has the team consistently been undervalued away from home? Does its playing style travel particularly well? Was most of the sample produced by a different quarterback or coaching staff?

A trend should begin the handicapping conversation—not end it.

3. Injuries: Don’t Just Ask Who Is Out

One of the biggest mistakes bettors make is treating every injury equally.

They’re not.

The real question is:

How much does this particular player’s absence change the matchup?

Quarterback is the obvious example, but injuries elsewhere can be severely underestimated.

Losing an elite left tackle against an opponent with an outstanding pass rush can change an entire offensive game plan. Losing a starting cornerback becomes more important against an opponent built around elite receivers. Losing two defensive tackles could transform a normally strong run defense.

Depth also matters.

A team might survive losing one cornerback. Losing its No. 1 and No. 3 corners simultaneously could create a completely different handicap.

That’s why ATS should evaluate injuries through three levels:

Player value → Replacement value → Matchup impact

And bettors need current information. The NFL’s official injury reporting is already relevant heading into Week 1, with practice participation and game-status information becoming increasingly important as kickoff approaches.

The betting line may react immediately to a star quarterback being ruled out. The better opportunities can sometimes come from injuries whose secondary effects aren’t as obvious to the market.

4. Offseason Moves: Last Year’s Team Doesn’t Exist Anymore

This is especially important early in the season.

Bettors naturally anchor themselves to what they saw last year. But NFL rosters can change dramatically between January and September.

The 2026 offseason provides plenty of examples. NFL.com’s transaction tracker documents major additions and departures throughout all 32 organizations, while some teams have undergone changes at quarterback, coaching staff and multiple position groups simultaneously.

There have also been genuinely market-moving transactions. Among the major moves this offseason were the Rams’ acquisition of Myles Garrett and New England’s acquisition of A.J. Brown.

Those aren’t simply names to add to a depth chart.

A dominant pass rusher can affect opposing protection schemes, quarterback pressure, third-down defense and potentially turnover opportunities. An elite receiver can affect coverage structure and create opportunities for every other offensive player.

That’s why offseason analysis needs to evaluate how a player’s arrival or departure changes the entire unit.

5. Coaching and Coordinator Changes Can Be Just as Important

Personnel isn’t the only offseason variable.

A new head coach, offensive coordinator or defensive coordinator can fundamentally change how a team plays.

Consider changes in:

Tempo. Personnel packages. Run/pass ratio. Play-action frequency. Blitz rate. Defensive coverage. Fourth-down aggressiveness. Red-zone philosophy.

Those changes can create opportunities early in the season because historical team statistics may no longer accurately describe the current team.

For example, Buffalo begins 2026 with Josh Allen playing his first NFL season under a head coach other than Sean McDermott. Baltimore begins the Jesse Minter era after replacing John Harbaugh. Arizona, Miami and Las Vegas are also among teams entering the season with new head-coaching situations.

That makes blindly applying old ATS trends particularly dangerous.

6. The Market Has a Memory—and Bettors Should Exploit It

One of the most important concepts entering a new NFL season is market lag.

Public perception doesn’t reset to zero during the offseason.

If a team was terrible last year, bettors remember it. If another team was spectacular, bettors remember that too.

But perhaps the bad team upgraded its offensive line, changed coordinators and improved its secondary.

Perhaps the successful team lost several starters, changed coordinators and benefited from an unsustainable turnover differential last season.

The question isn’t:

“Who was better last year?”

It’s:

“How much of last year’s performance should still be priced into this year’s line?”

That’s a much more useful handicapping question.

Putting It All Together: 

No single statistic, trend or injury should determine a wager.

Think of NFL handicapping as building a case.

STATS tell us how efficiently the teams are actually playing.

TRENDS tell us how teams have historically performed relative to sportsbook expectations.

INJURIES tell us whether the personnel responsible for those statistics will actually be available—and who replaces them.

OFFSEASON MOVES tell us whether historical numbers remain applicable to the current roster.

COACHING CHANGES tell us whether the team’s philosophy and schemes have changed.

THE BETTING MARKET ultimately tells us the price we have to pay for everything above.

That’s the final piece.

You can correctly determine that Team A is better than Team B and still make a bad bet if the point spread already overstates Team A’s advantage.

The objective isn’t simply to predict winners.

The objective is to find where your assessment of a team’s true probability differs from the probability implied by the betting market.

That’s why preparation is so important in the NFL.

The bettor who knows only last week’s score is competing against someone who knows the score plus the underlying statistics, ATS history, injury situation, roster changes, coaching adjustments and line movement.

In a market as competitive as the NFL, that additional information can be the difference between betting a team and finding value.

******************************************************************************************************

The “New” ATS Weekly Gaming Review is available for FREE. It’s full of stats, trends, picks, power ratings, key injuries and more.  

______________________________________________________________________________________

Upcoming and Current Events at ATS:

  • ATS Football set for another huge season!  NFL kicks off next Wednesday, September 9!
  • UFC has won 7 of the last 9 weeks. Discounts are available.
    __________________________________________________________________

Betting Preview for Week 1 of College Football

Posted on by Mat Daily

Week 1 of College Football kicks off on this weekend! ATS All-Sport wins big last week as average clients win over $5,000! UFC Wins 6 of the last 8 weeks.

There is a full slate of FBS games from Friday through Monday. Happy Labor Day Weekend! Current lines are subject to movement.

FRIDAY

San Jose State at Eastern Michigan — 6:30 ET

Line: Eastern Michigan -3 | Total: 56. Open: 3/53.5.

This is one of the more interesting Friday MAC/Mountain West crossover games. Eastern Michigan gets home field, but San Jose State has the more intriguing defensive challenge after coming off a 2025 season that produced enough competitiveness to make this a dangerous number. The key handicap is whether EMU can establish the run and avoid giving SJSU short fields.

UTEP at #10 Oklahoma — 8:00 ET

Line: Oklahoma -41.5, Total: 51.5. Open: -40.5/50.5

Oklahoma enters ranked No. 10 and this is a classic talent-vs.-number matchup. UTEP is catching more than six touchdowns, so the Sooners need a dominant performance to reward favorite bettors. Oklahoma’s defensive talent is legit, but their offense struggled last season, averaging just 354.3ypg. QB John Mateer is back after suffering a broken hand earlier in the year in 2025.

Toledo at Michigan State — 8:00 ET

Line: Michigan State -10 | Total: 47. Open: -10.5/49.5

Toledo is capable of playing physically and Michigan State is laying double digits. Michigan State’s new regime makes this a particularly important early test. Former Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald takes over. Mike Jacobs takes over a Toledo program that has won at least eight games in a season in four straight seasons.

#7 Miami at Stanford — 9:00 ET

Line: Miami -23.5 | Total: 48. Open: -21.5/49.5

Miami is one of the highest-profile Friday favorites. The challenge is the cross-country trip to Stanford in this ACC matchup and the unusual early-season scheduling environment. Miami has substantially more talent. Last year, Miami crushed Stanford 42-7 at home, giving 29.5. Duke transfer Darian Mensah takes over at QB and has a special WR in Malachi Toney. 

Fresno State at #14 USC — 9:00 ET

Line: USC -21.5 | Total: 52. Open: USC -23.5/51.5.

USC is coming off its Week 0 game against San Jose State giving the Trojans a short turnaround. They won the game 42-26 but did not cover the 37.5. Fresno State gets a potentially significant preparation advantage while USC has to deal with its second game in a short window. 

 SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 5

There are 50+ FBS games Saturday, so I’ll separate the marquee games from the deeper-card games.

Coastal Carolina at West Virginia — 12:00 ET

West Virginia -21.5 | Total 56.5. Open: 17.5/58.5.

West Virginia has the home-field and Power Four talent advantages, but Coastal has enough offensive ability to make 21.5 uncomfortable. Can the Chants overcome the tough Morgantown atmosphere?

East Carolina at #13 Alabama — 12:00 ET

Alabama -28.5 | Total 54.5. Open: -28.5/55.5.

Alabama went 11-4 last season and reaches 2026 ranked No. 13, but replaces first-round QB Ty Simpson with sophomore Keelon Russell. East Carolina went 9-4 and brings transfer QB Mitch Griffis into an offense with substantial portal additions.

Liberty at James Madison — 12:00 ET

James Madison -6.5 | Total 50. Open: -6/52.5.

One of the better Group-of-5 games on the board. Liberty gets points despite having enough offensive talent to make this competitive. JMU’s home field is important. They are usually one of the top mid-majors in the nation. But they’ ve lost another coach. This time, it was Bob Chesney to UCLA.

North Texas at #6 Indiana — 12:00 ET

Indiana -39.5 | Total 55.5. Open: 40.5/54.5.

Indiana is defending a 16-0 national championship season and replaces Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza with TCU transfer Josh Hoover. North Texas went 12-2 in 2025, its best season ever, but lost coach Eric Morris and now has Neal Brown running the program.

Ohio at Nebraska — 12:00 ET

Nebraska -23.5 | Total 46. Open: -23.5/45.5.

Nebraska is coming off a 7-6 season, which doesn’t sound like much, but before Matt Rhule took over. The Huskers had not finished above .500 since 2026. UNLV transfer Anthony Colandrea will take over at QB for Dylan Raiola. John Hauser takes over Ohio, which went 9-4 last season. 

Trend: Nebraska is 4-0 ATS in its last four against MAC opponents and the Over is 5-1 in Nebraska’s last six as a favorite.

Oregon State at #23 Houston — 12:00 ET

Houston -20.5 | Total 49.5. Open: -18.5/51.5. 

Houston is coming off a 10-3 season and returns QB Conner Weigman, who threw for 2,705 yards and 25 TDs while rushing for another 700 yards and 11 TDs. Oregon State went just 2-10 last year and has a new coach and new QB.

Trend: Under is 12-2 in Oregon State’s last 14 road games, while Houston has seen the Over hit in six straight games as a favorite.

Miami (Ohio) at Pitt — 12:30 ET

Pitt -16.5 | Total 47.5. Open: -16.5/50.5. 

Pitt has more ACC-level talent, but Miami (Ohio) has been one of the more competitive MAC programs. Mason Heintschel will take over at QB for Pitt, who went 5-0 as a starter in his first five games, before going 6-3. Miami will turn to Kansas transfer David McComb at QB, who will be making his first collegiate start because expected starter Thomas Gotkowski suffered a season-ending injury.

Ball State at #1 Ohio State — 12:30 ET

Ohio State -50.5 | Total 56.5. Open: -49.5/56.5.

The biggest spread on the board. Ohio State is No. 1 and has an enormous talent edge, but asking a team to cover 50.5 is another matter.

Trend: Ohio State is 14-4 ATS over its last 18 games, while the Under is 12-3-1 in Ball State’s last 16 against Big Ten opponents.

Kent State at South Carolina — 12:45 ET

South Carolina -36.5 | Total 52.5. Open: -33.5/52.5.  

South Carolina has too much athleticism for Kent State, but the Gamecocks need to create separation quickly. SC went 4-8 last season, but they return La Norris Sellers at QB. He’s a dynamic dual-threat player. Kent State went 5-7 last season and will return with Dru DeShields at QB.

Baylor at Auburn — 3:30 ET

Auburn -7.5 | Total 58.5. Open: -6.5/58.5.

Both teams underachieved last season, going 5-7. Auburn hired Alex Golesh and has significant roster turnover, while Baylor retains Dave Aranda and brings in former Florida starter DJ Lagway.

Auburn returns only four starters but has 35 players with starting experience; Baylor returns five starters and has 33 players with starting experience.

Boise State at #2 Oregon — 3:30 ET

Oregon -24.5 | Total 51.5. Open: -24.5/53.5.

Oregon went 13-2 SU and 9-6 ATS last season; Boise State went 9-5 SU and 8-6 ATS. Oregon returns 11 starters and Boise returns 12, including QBs Dante Moore and Maddux Madsen.

Trend: Boise is 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Oregon, while the Under is 5-0 in Boise’s last five road games.

Boston College at Cincinnati — 3:30 ET

Cincinnati -7.5 | Total 51.5. Open: -9.5/53.5.

Cincinnati went 7-6 and returns 26 players with starting experience despite only five returning starters. Boston College went 2-10 but returns seven starters and 29 players with starting experience.  

Marshall at #18 Penn State — 3:30 ET

Penn State -24.5 | Total 54.5. Open: -24/52.

Penn State should have a substantial talent advantage, but Marshall is exactly the type of experienced underdog I want to investigate before laying nearly four touchdowns. New PSU coach Matt Campbell moves from Iowa State to Happy Valley to take over for James Franklin. He brings with him Rocco Becht, who threw 64 TD passes in three seasons for the Cyclones. Marshall is usually no pushover. Sun Belt preseason Offensive Player of the Year Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is back to lead a team that went 5-7 last season, which was Marshall’s worst record since 2016.

Trend: Marshall is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog.

Texas State at #5 Texas — 3:30 ET

Texas -29.5 | Total 59.5. Open: -30.5/60.5.

Texas returns 11 starters, including Arch Manning, while Texas State brings back eight starters from a 7-6 team and returns QB Brad Jackson plus two 1,000-yard receivers.

Trend: Texas is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home favorite; the Over is 4-0 in its last four as a favorite.

Tulane at Duke — 3:30 ET

Duke -7.5 | Total 51.5. Open: Duke -8.5/53.5.

Excellent matchup. Duke went 9-5 and won the ACC, but lost QB Darian Mensah to Miami. Tulane went 11-3 and reached the CFP, but lost coach Jon Sumrall, its QB and top receiver.

Trend: Over is 7-2 in Duke’s last nine at home and 4-1 in its last five as a favorite.

Oklahoma State at Tulsa — 3:45 ET

Oklahoma State -13.5 | Total 59.5. Open: -11.5/60.5.

This is a sneaky interesting in-state matchup. Tulsa catching 13.5 has value potential because rivalry familiarity can reduce the talent gap. Eric Morris takes over to try and rebuild the program in Stillwater. The former North Texas coach had the No. 1 offense in college football last season, averaging 512.4 ypg. Tulsa brings back Baylor Hayes under center and helped them beat Oklahoma State last season.

Northern Illinois at #22 Iowa — 4:15 ET

Iowa -31.5 | Total 46.5. Open: -29.5/43.5.

Iowa still has competition between Jeremy Hecklinski and Hank Brown at QB. No. Illinois also has an unsettled situation at quarterback, with Western Carolina transfer Taron Dickens expected to get the call, but nothing official has been announced.

Wyoming at Colorado State — 6:00 ET

Colorado State -3.5 | Total 46. Open: -4/47.5.

The Border War features new coach Jim Mora, who comes over from UConn, where he resurrected the program. Jay Sawyvel is back for this season at Wyoming and has a 7-17 record.

Arkansas State at Memphis — 7:00 ET

Memphis -9.5 | Total 52. Open: -10.5/55.5.

A much better betting matchup. Arkansas State is capable of keeping this close. Memphis won their first game on the road over UNLV 27-21 in Week 0. Ark State has gone to three straight bowl games led by coach Butch Jones.

FIU at South Florida — 7:00 ET

USF -13.5 | Total 54.5. Open:  -2.5/54.5.

Interesting intra-state matchup as USF brings new coach Brian Hartline to lead the Bulls. They’ll take on an FIU team with a 6-7, 250-pound transfer QB in JJ Kohl, who threw for 1,465 yards in 2025. FIU went 7-6 in 2025 and is led by head coach Willie Simmons, who’s offense averaged 397 yards per game in 2025.

Missouri State at #8 Texas A&M — 7:00 ET

Texas A&M -41.5 | Total 53.5. Open: -38.5/52.5.

Texas A&M returns QB Marcel Reed, who produced 3,169 passing yards, 493 rushing yards and 31 total TDs last season. Missouri State enters its second FBS season with a new coach and QB.

Sam Houston at Troy — 7:00 ET

Troy -16.5 | Total 53.5. Open: -18/51.

Good Group-of-5 matchup. Troy went 9-5 ATS last season. Sam Houston will go with Landyn Locke, a 6-4 sophomore at quarterback. Goose Crowder is back as the starting QB for Troy. 

Clemson at #11 LSU — 7:30 ET

LSU -10.5 | Total 51.5. Open: LSU -11/50.5.

LSU is debuting new head coach Lane Kiffin and transfer QB Sam Leavitt. Clemson’s Christopher Vizzina becomes the full-time starter after three seasons in the program. Both teams finished 7-6 last year.

LSU won last year’s opener 17-10 at Clemson. Kiffin also might be playing several players who were in NFL camps this summer.

Betting trend: Under is 5-1 in LSU’s last six as a home favorite and 4-1 in Clemson’s last five road games.

ULM at Mississippi State — 7:30 ET

Mississippi State -28.5 | Total 55. Open: -29.5/55.5

Mississippi State finished 5-8 last season and faces a ULM team that is trying to bounce back from a 3-9 season. Kamario Taylor starts at QB for the Bulldogs, who went 0-2 last season. ULM brings back a more experienced QB in Aidan Aremnta, who threw for 1,629 yards and 12 TDs last season.

Western Michigan at #16 Michigan — 7:30 ET

Michigan -27.5 | Total 48.5. Open: -26.5/47.5.

Michigan’s new head coach Kyle Whittingham gets his debut, while sophomore QB Bryce Underwood takes over a major offense. Western Michigan went 10-4 last season and returns MAC Player of the Year Broc Lowry plus RB Jalen Buckley.

Trend: Under is 4-0 in Michigan’s last four at home; the home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Florida Atlantic at Florida — 7:45 ET

Florida -26.5 | Total 59.5. Open: -25.5/58.5.

Florida brings in another new coach in Jon Sumrall, who takes over for Billy Napier (now at JMU). Sumrall was at Tulane when his squad beat FAU 35-24 last season on Nov. 15. GT transfer Aaron Philo will be the Gators’ new starting QB, and the team finished 93rd in passing yards per game in 2025. FAU led the nation with 340.2 passing yards per game and returns QB Caden Veltkamp.

Trend: FAU is 6-1 ATS in its last seven against SEC opponents, while Under is 5-1 in Florida’s last six as a home favorite.

UNLV at Hawaii — 10:00 ET

UNLV -3.5 | Total 58.5. Open: UNLV -1.5/58.5. 

Both teams played in Week 0 and both lost. Last year, UNLV crushed Hawaii at home 38-10, but it’s never easy to win at Hawaii. 

Trend: Hawaii is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 overall, while the home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.

Central Michigan at New Mexico — 10:00 ET

New Mexico -10.5 | Total 47.5. Open: -12.5/49.5.

Central Michigan could play two quarterbacks in Jadyn Glasser and Angle Flores. New Mexico starter Jack Layne (elbow) is out with an injury, so the Lobos are expected to use multiple quarterbacks. 

UCLA at California — 10:30 ET

UCLA -1.5 | Total 53.5. Open: Cal -1.5/54.5.

 UCLA went 3-9 last season and hired former James Madison coach Bob Chesney; Cal went 7-6 and hired first-time head coach Tosh Lupoi.

Trend: The Under is 6-1 in UCLA’s last seven as a road favorite, while the underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. 

Western Kentucky at Nevada — 10:30 ET

WKU -1 | Total 52.5. Open: WKU -4/53.5

Rodney Tisdale Jr. is expected to go for WKU after a solid freshman season. Carter Jones started strong and faded late at QB for Nevada. Both are dual-threat QBs and will need to rely on the running game.

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 6

Washington State at #17 Washington — 4:00 ET

Washington -23.5 | Total 51.5. Open: -21.5/50.5.

The Apple Cup returns with Washington hosting. Washington went 9-4 last year and returns 11 starters, including QB Demond Williams Jr. Washington State changed coaches and has an extraordinary 77% of its roster either freshmen or transfer-portal players.

Trend: Washington State is 6-0 ATS in its last six as an underdog, while Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last five as a home favorite. 

#24 Louisville at #9 Ole Miss — 7:30 ET

Ole Miss -7 | Total 55.5. Open: -7.5/55.5.

The only ranked-vs.-ranked matchup of Week 1. Ole Miss returns QB Trinidad Chambliss, who threw for 3,937 yards, 22 TDs and only three interceptions last season. Louisville brings back RB Isaac Brown, who averaged a remarkable 8.8 yards per carry in 2025. Peter Golden takes over at Ole Miss for Lane Kiffin, who fled to LSU. The Rebels bring back QB Trinidad Chambliss, who threw for nearly 4,000 yards and 22 TDs thanks to a ruling from a Mississippi district judge. Louisville will add another QB transfer in Lincoln Kienholz, a backup at Ohio State.

Trend: Ole Miss is 5-1 ATS in its last six against ACC opponents; the Over is 4-0 in its last four neutral-site games. 

Wisconsin at #4 Notre Dame — 7:30 ET

Notre Dame -20.5 | Total 47.5. Open: -19.5/46.5.

Notre Dame went 10-2 last year after starting 0-2 and returns QB C.J. Carr, who threw for 2,741 yards and 24 TDs with six interceptions. Wisconsin went just 4-8. New Wisconsin coach Luke Fickell takes over after going 57-18 in six seasons at Cincinnati. Colton Joseph, a dual-threat transfer from ODU, takes over at QB.

Trends: Wisconsin is 4-0 ATS in its last four as an underdog, and the Under is 7-0 in Wisconsin’s last seven as an underdog.

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 7

#19 SMU at Florida State — 7:30 ET

SMU -3 | Total 53.5. Open: SMU -2.5/52.5. 

The Labor Day finale is an intriguing ACC matchup. SMU went 9-4 last year and has won at least nine games in three consecutive seasons. Florida State went 5-7 last year and already has a Week 0 game under its belt—a 34-17 victory over New Mexico State in which it failed to cover as a 31.5-point favorite.

Florida State has also lost five of its last six against ranked opponents. SMU beat FSU 42-16 in 2024. SMU QB Kevin Jennings enters his third year with 7,709 passing yards and 65 combined TDs. FSU was up 17-10 in the third quarter against NM State in their opener before pulling away.

 

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Betting Approach to Week 1 of the NFL

Posted on by Mat Daily
Football Player with a Blue Uniform Catching a Ball in a Stadium

Week 1 of the NFL kicks off on Thursday, September 9!! ATS Football offers many winners in Week 1 of College Football, including UMass (+29) outright over Rutgers! UFC Wins 7 of the last 9 weeks. Is now on a 35-unit run!

Week 1 is one of the most dangerous—and potentially exploitable. The best approach is to be selective rather than aggressive. The 2026 Week 1 board has 16 games, and many spreads are relatively short, which makes price discipline especially important.

Best approach to NFL Week 1 betting

1. Don’t overreact to last season. Personnel, coordinators, schemes, offensive lines and defensive rotations can change dramatically. Downgrade 2025 ATS records compared with current roster strength, coaching changes and matchup advantages.

2. Make your own number before looking at the spread. Build a projected line using team power ratings plus home-field advantage. If you make Baltimore -6 at Indianapolis and the market is Baltimore -3.5, that’s potentially meaningful. If you make it -4, there probably isn’t enough edge to justify the bet.

3. Pay enormous attention to 3 and 7. Current examples illustrate why. Seattle was -3.5 against New England and Baltimore -3.5 at Indianapolis in recently posted numbers. Buying a favorite at -3 versus -3.5—or taking an underdog +3.5 instead of +3—can materially change long-term results.

4. Injuries matter more than simply counting who’s out. Concentrate on QB, offensive line, pass rush, cornerback and high-usage skill positions. For example, New England’s early Week 1 report includes Christian Barmore and starting-caliber center Ben Brown missing practice, while Seattle has multiple players limited or absent.

The question isn’t just who is injured? It’s how big is the drop-off to the replacement?

5. Attack coordinator and coaching changes. This is one of my favorite Week 1 angles. New systems can create temporary pricing errors because the market doesn’t yet know exactly how much a team’s pace, pass rate, blitz rate, coverage structure or red-zone philosophy has changed.

That can make first-half bets and team totals particularly interesting.

6. Be careful laying large numbers. The Chargers were recently around -10.5 against Arizona, while Jacksonville was around -7.5 against Cleveland 

7. Look harder at totals than most bettors do. Week 1 totals can offer opportunities when you identify a mismatch between expected pace and the posted number. Look for offensive-line continuity, new play callers, inexperienced QBs, secondary injuries, explosive-play capability and likely game script.

For example, Jets-Titans was recently only 38.5, while Tampa Bay-Cincinnati was 50.5. Those dramatically different totals tell you what the market already expects—your job is to find where that expectation is wrong.

Money management

If your normal strongest wager is 3 units, don’t automatically fire 3-unit bets throughout Week 1. There’s too much uncertainty.

Structure it roughly as 1 unit for a normal edge, 1.5–2 units for a strong edge, and reserve maximum exposure for an unusually large pricing discrepancy. Passing on a game is also a position.

Avoid putting five or six Week 1 favorites into a parlay simply because they “should win.” You can handicap five games correctly and lose the entire ticket because one favorite underperforms.

Look for teams where the market’s perception hasn’t caught up with the offseason.

The best candidates are teams with some combination of a major QB change, upgraded offensive line, new coordinator, substantially improved secondary, major pass-rush addition, important player returning from injury, or misleading 2025 record caused by turnovers/close-game variance.

Those situations can create the biggest gap between public perception and current team strength.

Power Rating → Injury/Depth Adjustment → Matchup Adjustment → Coaching Adjustment → Projected Spread → Compare to Market → Track Line Movement → Bet only if the edge remains.

******************************************************************************************************

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Best Bets for the 2026 College Football Awards

Posted on by Mat Daily

Week 1 of College Football kicks off on Thursday, Sept 3! ATS All-Sport wins big last week as average clients win over $5,000! UFC Wins 6 of the last 8 weeks.

Yes. Since the 2026 season is just getting underway, this is a good time to look at season-long college football futures, particularly player awards. 

2026 College Football Futures

Heisman Tropy

Prices vary substantially by sportsbook, which is especially important with futures. Current markets (DraftKings) have CJ Carr from Notre Dame at +700 as the Heisman favorite, followed by players including Arch Manning, Dante Moore, Julian Sayin, and Jeremiah Smith.

Here are the candidates:

1. Sam Leavitt, LSU — (+2000)

This is probably my favorite combination of price and upside. Leavitt moves into a Lane Kiffin/Charlie Weis Jr. offense after accumulating 4,652 career passing yards, 816 rushing yards and 46 total TDs. LSU also strengthened the offensive line and added receiving weapons.

2. Julian Sayin, Ohio State — (+1200)

Sayin is one of the safer bets because Ohio State should provide both statistics and victories. He completed 77% of his passes last season and posted a 92.9 PFF grade, according to Sporting News’ preseason futures analysis.

And he gets perhaps the nation’s best receiver in Jeremiah Smith.

The concern is actually Smith himself: they could split Heisman votes. But quarterbacks have a structural advantage in this award.

3. Dante Moore, Oregon — Heisman (+1100)

Moore posted a 90.2 PFF passing grade last year and returns to an Oregon offense loaded with skill talent.

There is also a powerful futures correlation:

Dante Moore Heisman + Oregon national championship.

Oregon is currently around +750 to win the national championship. If Oregon is undefeated or 11-1 entering the Big Ten title game, Moore will probably be sitting near the top of the Heisman board.

(Take Moore as the best bet)

4. Marcel Reed, Texas A&M —  (+3000)

Reed produced 3,169 passing yards, 31 total TDs and 493 rushing yards in 2025.  

Dual-threat quarterbacks are particularly attractive because 500-700 rushing yards and 8-10 rushing touchdowns can dramatically boost the statistical résumé.

5. Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State —  (+1400)

Here’s the fascinating non-QB bet.

Smith led Power Four receivers with 1,243 receiving yards last season and returns to what could be college football’s best offense.

The problem isn’t talent. It’s position.

A receiver generally needs an extraordinary season to beat the top quarterbacks. I’d want something like:

1,400+ yards
15+ TDs
Ohio State in CFP contention
Multiple huge performances in marquee games.

6. Drew Mestemaker, Oklahoma State — Heisman (+5000 range)

This is my lottery-ticket candidate.

Mestemaker threw for an FBS-leading 4,379 yards and 34 TDs at North Texas last season, including an incredible 608-yard game. He followed coach Eric Morris to Oklahoma State, along with much of the offensive infrastructure.

The obstacle is Oklahoma State’s record. He probably needs the Cowboys in the Big 12 championship race to have a realistic shot.

7. Malachi Toney, Miami — Heisman (+3500/+4000)

Toney had 1,211 receiving yards as a freshman, including an FBS-leading 841 yards after the catch, according to Sporting News. Miami is also the current ACC favorite.

If Miami wins 11+ games and Toney explodes statistically, he’ll get national attention.

Arch Manning +750 

The talent is obvious. The price isn’t. Texas faces a difficult schedule, including major games against Ohio State, Tennessee, Missouri, LSU, Texas A&M and Oklahoma.

Here are my 2026 projections entering the first full week of the season. The odds below are current examples and can vary significantly by sportsbook.

2026 College Football Award Futures

Award Projected WinnerBest Value/ChallengerLong Shot
Bear Bryant Coach of the YearDan Lanning, Oregon +800Lane Kiffin, LSU +1200Willie Fritz, Houston +3500
Davey O’BrienJulian Sayin, Ohio State +850Sam Leavitt, LSU, +1400Marcel Reed, Texas A&M, +2000
BiletnikoffJeremiah Smith, Ohio State, +150Cam Coleman, Texas, +1200Duce Robinson, FSU, +1600
Doak WalkerKewan Lacy, Ole Miss, +800Bo Jackson, Ohio State, +1000Isaac Brown, Louisville, +1500
John MackeyJamari Johnson, Oregon, +600Trey’Dez Green, LSU,  +700Luke Hasz, Ole Miss, +1600

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Upcoming and Current Events at ATS:

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Different Approaches to Betting on College Football

Posted on by Mat Daily

Week 1 of College Football kicks off on Thursday, Sept 3! ATS All-Sport wins big last week as average clients win over $5,000! UFC Wins 6 of the last 8 weeks.

For college football, treat exotics, parlays and player props as specialized tools rather than the foundation of the card. The strongest approach is usually to find an edge in the underlying matchup first, then decide whether a derivative market expresses that edge better than the full-game spread or total.

Best college football exotic bets

1. First-half spreads and totals are the most popular of the exotics. College football produces enormous differences in coaching, depth and motivation. If you believe a favorite has a major preparation or talent advantage but might take its foot off the gas late, 1H -7 can be more attractive than full-game -17. Conversely, teams with slow offensive starts or scripted defensive success can create 1H Under opportunities.

2. Team totals can be better than game totals. Suppose you expect Alabama to dominate an inferior opponent but don’t have a strong opinion about whether the opponent scores 7 or 17. Instead of Over 52.5, an Alabama team total Over 38.5 isolates your actual handicap.

3. Alternate spreads are useful when your projected margin is substantially different from the market. If your handicap says a -10 favorite should win by 20+, you can investigate -13.5 or -14 at plus money. But the price matters—you don’t automatically have value simply because the payout is bigger.

4. Quarter and live markets can exploit game scripts. If an option offense needs a series or two to settle in, or a favorite historically starts slowly, live betting can sometimes produce a materially better number than betting before kickoff. This is particularly useful when what you’re seeing confirms the handicap rather than contradicts it.

Parlays: keep them short

The preferred structure is a two-leg parlay of bets that you would genuinely play individually. A parlay doesn’t turn mediocre bets into good ones; each additional priced leg generally compounds the sportsbook’s advantage.

For example, if you independently make:

  • Clemson +3 a strong play
  • Wisconsin/Notre Dame Under 48 a strong play

then combining them occasionally makes considerably more sense than searching the board for four additional selections simply to create a six-team parlay. 

2 teams → best parlay structure

3 teams → acceptable selectively

4–5 teams → high variance

6+ teams → primarily lottery-ticket territory

Same-game parlays require extra caution

This is where correlation becomes critical.

Imagine your handicap says LSU will control Clemson through its passing attack. A ticket such as:

LSU moneyline + LSU QB passing Over + LSU team total Over

tells one coherent game story.

But that doesn’t automatically make it a bargain. Sportsbooks specifically adjust SGP payouts because the outcomes are correlated, and published analyses estimate that the effective margin on SGPs can be substantially higher than on straight wagers.

So my rule would be:

Start with the handicap → identify 2–3 related outcomes → compare the SGP payout against betting those markets separately.

Don’t start by saying, “I want a five-leg SGP” and then hunt for five legs.

Player props: potentially one of the better CFB derivative markets

College player props can provide interesting opportunities because personnel information matters enormously.

I’d emphasize:

QB passing attempts/yards: especially when you can predict game script. A 17-point underdog may be forced into 40+ attempts.

RB rushing attempts/yards: particularly when a favorite should lead throughout the second half.

WR receptions/yards: injuries to another receiver can matter more than season averages because targets must be redistributed somewhere.

Anytime TD props: look for goal-line usage rather than simply choosing the team’s most famous player.

Backup-player props: college depth charts change rapidly. Injuries, suspensions and role changes can create temporary discrepancies before markets fully adjust.

One complication is availability: college player-prop rules vary by jurisdiction, and the NCAA continues to push regulators to eliminate individual college player props.

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Upcoming and Current Events at ATS:

  • ATS Football set for another huge season! College Football starts on Thursday in Week 1! NFL kicks off next Wednesday, September 9!
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A Look at the New Coaches and Coordinators in College Football

Posted on by Mat Daily

Week 1 of College Football kicks off on Thursday, Sept 3! ATS All-Sport wins big last week as average clients win over $5,000! UFC Wins 6 of the last 8 weeks.

The 2025-26 coaching carousel was unusually large: 33 FBS programs entered 2026 with a new permanent head coach, including 17 Power Four programs. There were also 63 new Power Four coordinators, so for handicapping purposes the coordinator changes can be almost as important as the head-coaching moves. Check out the coordinator moves below. 

Team                                    New Head Coach                               Previous Job

   
LSULane KiffinOle Miss HC
MichiganKyle WhittinghamUtah HC
Oklahoma StateEric MorrisNorth Texas HC
AuburnAlex GoleshSouth Florida HC
KentuckyWill SteinOregon OC
Virginia TechJames FranklinPenn State HC
Penn StateMatt CampbellIowa State HC
FloridaJon SumrallTulane HC
UCLABob ChesneyJames Madison HC
UtahMorgan ScalleyUtah DC
Kansas StateCollin KleinTexas A&M OC
Ole MissPete GoldingOle Miss DC
Iowa StateJimmy RogersWashington State HC
CaliforniaTosh LupoiOregon DC
Michigan StatePat FitzgeraldFormer Northwestern HC
ArkansasRyan SilverfieldMemphis HC
StanfordTavita PritchardCommanders QB Coach
South FloridaBrian HartlineOhio State OC
MemphisCharles HuffSouthern Miss HC
UConnJason CandleToledo HC
North TexasNeal BrownTexas Assistant
Colorado StateJim MoraUConn HC
Oregon StateJaMarcus ShephardAlabama Co-OC
James MadisonBilly NapierFormer Florida HC
ToledoMike JacobsMercer HC
Washington StateKirby MooreMissouri OC
Coastal CarolinaRyan BeardMissouri State HC
TulaneWill HallTulane Assistant
Missouri StateCasey WoodsSMU OC
Southern MissBlake AndersonSouthern Miss OC
UABAlex MortensenUAB OC
OhioJohn HauserOhio Staff
Kent StateMark CarneyKent State OC/Interim

 

The moves matter MOST for handicapping

  1. Lane Kiffin — LSU

This is my No. 1 coaching-change team for bettors. LSU isn’t simply changing coaches; it’s changing its offensive identity and roster construction. Kiffin has historically been aggressive schematically and in the portal, and LSU assembled a major transfer haul around him. 

Handicapping implication: Don’t anchor LSU’s 2026 offensive rating to its 2025 numbers. Early LSU team totals and Overs deserve special attention. But there’s also a danger: the public knows Kiffin’s reputation, so LSU Overs may become inflated quickly.

  1. Eric Morris — Oklahoma State

This could actually create the largest difference between a 2025 power rating and the true 2026 team.

Oklahoma State went 1-11 in 2025 and then brought in Morris from North Texas, along with QB Drew Mestemaker, RB Caleb Hawkins and a massive transfer influx. CBS reported 54 transfers, the most in the country at the time.

That means last year’s Oklahoma State statistical profile is nearly useless.

Betting angle: Oklahoma State may initially be underrated by models carrying too much 2025 data.

The key isn’t simply “bet Oklahoma State.” It’s recognizing that a team with enormous roster and system turnover deserves a much lower weighting on last year’s EPA, success rate and yards-per-play numbers.

This is one of my favorite early-season ATS watch teams.

  1. Alex Golesh — Auburn

This is a fascinating totals situation.

Golesh arrives from South Florida and brought quarterback Byrum Brown plus numerous former USF starters, while Auburn retained defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin.

That combination matters.

You could get:

faster/more aggressive offense + relatively stable defense.

Those aren’t automatically Overs. If Auburn’s offense improves substantially while the defense remains strong, the better early opportunity can sometimes be Auburn team-total Overs rather than full-game Overs.

I would especially study Auburn’s possessions per game and seconds per snap immediately.

  1. Kyle Whittingham — Michigan

Whittingham is almost the opposite handicapping case.

Michigan gets an experienced coach whose programs have historically emphasized physicality, defense, preparation and line-of-scrimmage football—but Michigan also brought Jason Beck with him to reshape the offense around Bryce Underwood. CBS specifically highlighted Beck’s offense as a major component of the transition.

That creates an unusual betting possibility:

The market may price Michigan as traditional “slow, defense-first Michigan” longer than the new offense warrants.

Watch Michigan’s early explosive pass rate and first-down play calling.

If Beck opens the offense substantially, old Michigan Under tendencies become far less useful.

  1. Will Stein — Kentucky

Stein comes directly from Oregon’s offensive operation. Kentucky spent years being identified with Mark Stoops’ defense/run-game/field-position identity. The philosophical transition could be substantial, and Kentucky also attacked the transfer market aggressively.

That means historical Kentucky ATS and Under trends require a major discount.

If Kentucky begins playing materially faster or throwing more frequently on early downs, old Kentucky Under systems should be thrown out quickly.

  1. Matt Campbell — Penn State

This one requires patience.

Campbell didn’t merely change schools. A significant group of Iowa State players followed him to Penn State, including QB Rocco Becht.

Penn State’s logo and recruiting reputation could create inflated numbers while the roster learns a new system

  1. James Franklin — Virginia Tech

Franklin could be a very good ATS coach to monitor early because the market perception of Virginia Tech is much lower than the perception of Penn State.

That matters.

He also brought substantial personnel familiarity with him, while Brent Pry returned as defensive coordinator. CBS characterized Virginia Tech as one of the carousel’s strongest immediate-reload situations.

Unlike at Penn State, Franklin may not initially face “elite-program tax” in every point spread.

Potential value: Virginia Tech as a short favorite or underdog rather than laying huge numbers.

  1. Jon Sumrall — Florida

Sumrall brings a strong winning history from Troy/Tulane and an SEC-oriented approach. Florida is more interesting to me defensively and situationally than simply as an offensive upgrade.

Look closely at Florida as an underdog.

A well-coached, physical team with enough talent can become much more valuable catching +6½ or +7½ than laying -17 against inferior opposition.

  1. Bob Chesney — UCLA

Chesney’s rise through Holy Cross and James Madison has been built heavily around development, organization and maximizing personnel. He took JMU to the playoff before UCLA hired him.

UCLA also underwent enormous transfer turnover.

That’s exactly the sort of program where conventional preseason power ratings have wide error bars.

Handicapping angle: Don’t judge UCLA solely on its first game. Developmental coaches often reveal their value as the season progresses.

  1. Morgan Scalley — Utah

Scalley has spent years inside the Utah program, so the defensive identity and physicality should have considerable continuity. The bigger handicapping question is offense because Jason Beck followed Whittingham to Michigan and Utah changed offensive leadership.

Early Utah totals may therefore offer Under opportunities if the market assumes offensive continuity that isn’t actually there.

The biggest hidden factor: coordinator changes

This is extremely important.

There were 63 new coordinators in the Power Four alone, and 17 Power Four programs changed both coordinators. That is enough schematic turnover that blindly using last year’s offensive and defensive efficiencies can be dangerous.

Two examples jump out: Chad Morris returned to Clemson as offensive coordinator, while Will Muschamp returned to Texas as defensive coordinator.

Yes. For the 2026 FBS season, there has been enormous coordinator turnover. FootballScoop’s trackers identify 60 offensive-coordinator changes and 53 defensive-coordinator changes; because many schools changed both, the unique-team total is lower.

Here is the full list of teams appearing on at least one of those coordinator-change trackers:

FBS Team                                                                                                                 New OC             New DC

   
Air Force—✓
Arkansas✓✓
Arkansas State✓—
Auburn✓—
Boston College✓✓
Bowling Green✓✓
Buffalo✓✓
BYU—✓
California✓✓
Cincinnati✓—
Clemson✓—
Coastal Carolina✓✓
Colorado✓—
Colorado State✓—
East Carolina✓✓
Eastern Michigan—✓
Florida✓✓
Florida State✓—
Georgia Southern—✓
Georgia Tech✓✓
Illinois—✓
Iowa State✓✓
Jacksonville State✓—
James Madison✓✓
Kansas State✓✓
Kentucky✓✓
Louisiana Tech✓—
Louisville—✓
LSU✓—
Maryland✓—
Memphis✓✓
Miami (Ohio)✓—
Michigan✓✓
Middle Tennessee✓—
Mississippi State—✓
Missouri✓—
Missouri State✓✓
Nebraska—✓
Nevada✓—
North Carolina✓—
North Texas✓✓
Northwestern✓—
Ohio State✓—
Oklahoma State✓✓
Old Dominion✓—
Ole Miss✓✓
Oregon✓✓
Oregon State✓✓
Penn State—✓
Purdue—✓
Rutgers—✓
San Diego State—✓
San Jose State—✓
SMU✓✓
South Alabama—✓
South Carolina✓—
Southern Miss✓✓
Stanford✓✓
Syracuse—✓
TCU✓—
Tennessee—✓
Texas—✓
Texas A&M✓✓
Texas State—✓
Toledo✓✓
Tulane✓✓
Tulsa✓—
UAB✓*✓
UCLA✓✓
UConn✓✓
ULM✓—
UMass✓—
USC—✓
USF✓✓
Utah—✓
UTEP✓—
UTSA✓—
Virginia Tech✓✓
Washington State✓✓
Western Kentucky✓—
Wyoming✓—

Key: ✓ = New coordinator · — = No new coordinator · ✓* = New OC designation as provided.

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A Betting Approach to Week 1 of College Football

Posted on by Mat Daily

Week 1 of College Football kicks off on Thursday, Sept 3! ATS All-Sport wins big last week as average clients win over $5,000! UFC Wins 6 of the last 8 weeks.

For Week 1 of the 2026 college football season,  take a much more selective approach than simply betting the biggest games. The opening week is unusually difficult to handicap because you’re working with new rosters, transfers, new coaches, and very limited current-season data. There are also several major Power Four matchups right away.

1. Make QB continuity your No. 1 variable

Before looking at the spread, determine:

  • Returning starting QB vs. new starter
  • Returning offensive line
  • QB experience in the current system
  • How much of the skill-position production returned
  • Whether the opponent’s defense returns its core

In Week 1, trust a proven QB/system more than preseason rankings.

2. Don’t automatically bet ranked favorites

This is one of the biggest Week 1 traps.

A team like Oklahoma, Texas, Oregon or LSU can be substantially better than its opponent and still be a bad bet if the number has been inflated by public perception.

Instead, ask:

“What does my number say the spread should be?”

If you make Oklahoma -17 and the market is -23, don’t bet Oklahoma simply because you think they’re the better team.

3. Pay special attention to coaching changes

This is particularly important in 2026. There are more than a dozen first-year coaches at Power Four programs, creating uncertainty about schemes, personnel usage and game management.

For a new coach, examine:

  • Offensive/defensive coordinator continuity
  • Previous team’s tempo
  • QB development history
  • Returning starters
  • Transfer volume
  • Whether the coach inherited a roster suited to his system

Be especially cautious laying large numbers with teams undergoing major coaching transitions.

4. Treat transfers differently by position

Don’t just count how many transfers a team added.

QB > OL > DL > CB > WR/RB

A team replacing its QB and three offensive linemen is much more concerning than a team replacing three wide receivers.

And with the modern portal, roster talent doesn’t necessarily equal roster continuity.

5. Attack uncertainty rather than avoiding it

The best Week 1 opportunities can come from teams whose true strength is poorly understood.

For example, if a team:

  • changed coaches,
  • imported several transfers,
  • has a new QB,
  • but was heavily recruited,

The market may have difficulty determining its actual Week 1 level.

6. Be extremely careful with totals

Totals can be particularly tricky in Week 1.

  • New QB
  • Offensive coordinator change
  • Tempo change
  • OL continuity
  • Weather
  • Defensive coordinator change
  • Returning defensive production

A new offense can create either explosive upside or extreme inefficiency.

I would rather bet a Week 1 total when I have a strong schematic reason than simply betting an “under because it’s the first game.”

7. Line movement matters more than usual

I’d track:

Opening line → current line → closing line

For example:

Team A -7 → -8.5

If my power rating makes the fair line -10, the move doesn’t necessarily eliminate my edge.

But:

Team A -7 → -3.5

requires finding out why.

Was there an injury? QB news? Weather? Sharp action? Something else?

Don’t blindly follow movement. Explain the movement.

Preseason rating + Week 0 information + matchup adjustment

rather than:

Week 0 result = new power rating

Try and avoid:

  • Parlays built around obvious favorites
  • Betting every ranked team
  • Blindly following public money
  • Overreacting to preseason rankings
  • Betting a game simply because it’s on national TV
  • Making too many Week 1 wagers

The biggest Week 1 rule

Your goal isn’t to have the most bets. It’s to find the biggest difference between your estimated true line and the sportsbook’s line.

If your power rating says:

LSU -4.5

and the market says:

LSU -1.5

that’s potentially a much more interesting wager than taking a 20-point favorite you think should be favored by 22.

For Week 1, try and build a personal power-rating sheet for all 138 FBS teams, then compare those ratings against the Week 1 spreads. That gives you a systematic way to identify the 5–10 games where you actually have an edge rather than trying to handicap all 70+ games equally.

Last week’s College Football Power Ratings

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