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Author: Mat Daily

A College and NFL Preseason Betting Preview for Friday and Saturday’s games

Posted on by Mat Daily

College Football kicks off on Saturday, August 29! UFC Wins 5 of the last 7 weeks. This weekend, the card emanates from China.

Here’s a betting preview for Friday, August 28 and Saturday, August 29, 2026, for Week 0 in College Football and Week 3 of the NFL Preseason, concentrating on matchup edges, market numbers, personnel, and angles rather than simply picking every favorite.

College Football — Saturday, August 29
North Carolina vs. TCU — Noon ET

Odds: Open TCU -6.5. Current TCU -8.5

The most interesting storyline is UNC’s offense. North Carolina averaged only 19.3 points and 288.8 yards per game last season, but Bobby Petrino takes over the offense. Petrino has a track record of significantly improving offenses, and TCU enters the opener without starting safety Jacob Fields because of a suspension.

NC State at Virginia — 3:30 ET

Odds: Opening: Virginia -3. Current: Virginia -4

Virginia is coming off an 11-win season and enters 2026 with an extraordinary amount of experience.

But NC State has the healthier roster. The Wolfpack’s significant players are largely available, while Virginia WR Rico Flores and RB Solomon Beebe are out and LB Kam Robinson’s status has been uncertain.

Virginia is also breaking in transfer QB Beau Pribula, while NC State brings back dangerous dual-threat quarterback CJ Bailey.

San Jose State at USC — 3 ET

Odds: Open: USC -35.5. Current USC -38.5.

San Jose State is rebuilding after a 3-9 season and has considerable roster turnover. Hawaii transfer Luke Weaver takes over at quarterback, and the Spartans are implementing Craig Stutzmann’s Spread & Shred offense.g a 35-40 point margin.

Jacksonville State at North Dakota State — 5:30 ET

Odds: Open: ND State -10; Current Odds: ND State -7

North Dakota State enters FBS football after winning 10 FCS national championships from 2011-24. Jacksonville State is essentially the blueprint for a successful FCS-to-FBS transition, winning 27 games in its first three FBS seasons.

Sacramento State at Eastern Michigan — 6:30 ET

Odds: Opening: Current: EMU -9.5. 

An unusual matchup because Sacramento State is playing its first game as an FBS member and its first MAC game, with a new head coach.

Eastern Michigan has the continuity advantage, but this is a difficult game to price because Sacramento State’s new roster/system has very little reliable FBS data.

Hawai’i at Stanford — 7 ET.

Odds: Open: Stanford -3. Current: Stanford -4.5

Hawai’i QB Micah Alejado gives the Warriors an offensive ceiling. Hawai’i is being projected as a potentially much-improved team in 2026. Meanwhile Stanford begins a new coaching era under Tavita Pritchard.

This is exactly the type of opening-week game where quarterback continuity can be worth more than the market initially assumes.

New Mexico State at Florida State — 7 ET

Odds: Open: FSU -28.5. Current: FSU -31.5.

New Mexico State improved to four wins last season, but Tony Sanchez is only 7-17 at NMSU entering Year 3.

The talent gap is enormous, and FSU’s defensive structure should present serious problems for Furman transfer QB Trey Hedden. But that’s a big line.

Memphis at UNLV — 10 ET

Odds: Open: UNLV -3. Current: UNLV -4.5.

UNLV has become one of the more consistent Group of Five programs, reaching the Mountain West title game and a bowl in three straight seasons. Memphis lost coach Ryan Silverfield to Arkansas and he was replaced by Charles Huff. Jason Semore was hired as the defensive coordinator and then left for Georgia Tech two weeks later.

NFL Preseason — Friday, August 28

Washington at Baltimore  

Current Odds: Baltimore -3; Total: 36.5

Washington is 1-1, while Marcus Mariota remains sidelined with an MCL sprain. Athan Kaliakmanis and Sam Hartman are expected to carry significant quarterback work. Washington’s offensive line has been a huge negative and was dominated in joint practice by Baltimore’s defense. The Ravens will likely go with rookie Joe Fagnano for most of the game and he’s looked solid. Don’t expect any starters in this game unless they are competing for a position.

Seattle at Kansas City

Current Odds: Seattle -1; Total: 34.5

But both teams enter 0-2, and Kansas City has managed only one offensive touchdown through two preseason games. Seattle plans to start Drew Lock. No starters should play in this game even though Patrick Mahomes wants to play. 

Cincinnati at Philadelphia

Current Odds: Philadelphia around -2.5; Total: 36. 

This is a roster-depth game more than anything else, with many players effectively auditioning for jobs ahead of Sunday’s 53-man cuts. 

Giants at Jets

Current Odds: Giants  -3; Total: 37.0

The Jets appear settled at QB2 with Cade Klubnik, leaving Brady Cook and Bailey Zappe fighting for depth/practice-squad status.

That typically means the later portions of the game involve quarterbacks playing behind backup offensive linemen and with roster-bubble receivers. 

Houston at Carolina: 

Current Odds: Houston -1; Total: 35.6.

Houston defense was all over Bryce Young in a joint practice. No Carolina starters will play this week. Expect a lot of KyleTrask and Kenny Pickett for the Panthers. Davis Mills and Brett Rypien will go for Houston with Graham Mertz out. 

Atlanta at Miami:

Current Odds: Atlanta -3.5; Total: 36.5.  

Atlanta is one of the few teams who will play their starters, which is why they are the road favorite. However, Michael Pnix Jr. (knee) has not played yet. Jack Strand and Cooper Rush played well last week. But it appears that Tua Tagovailoa will be the backup and start on Friday. Malik Willis is expected to play some after the offense has struggled in practice.

Tampa Bay over Jacksonville:

Current Odds: Jacksonville -3; Total: 35.

There’s no need to play Baker Mayfield, so expect a lot of Jake Browning and Jalon Daniels for the Bucs. They were great last week, going a combined 25 of 29. Trevor Lawrence has not played in preseason for the Jags, which means more of the same with Nick Mullens, Carter Bradley and Joey Aguilar playing.

New Orleans at Dallas:

Current Odds:  Dallas -1.5; Total: 38.5.

New Orleans hasn’t played Tyler Shough yet and if they think he’s the answer at QB, they’ll play Zach Wilson and Spencer Rattler. Both are vying for the backup job. Dallas should just get ready for the regular season. Sam Howell and Joe Milton have been battling for QB2, though Milton should have the edge.

Arizona at Green Bay: 

Current Odds: Green Bay -1; Total: 36.

The story is Mike LaFleur against Matt LaFleur. Carson Beck is not likely to play for Arizona due to injury, which means a lot of Gardner Minshew and Kedon Slovis. Green Bay has Kyle McCord, who should get most of the snaps.

Minnesota at Denver:

Current Odds: Denver -3.5; Total: 37.5.

This is all about the backup quarterbacks. Carson Wentz may have surpassed J.J. McCarthy, who could be dealt. Bo Nix played last week and is not expected to play this week. That means Sam Ehlinger and Jarrett Sidham will duel for the backup role.

Saturday NFL preseason

There are just two games.

Detroit at Indianapolis — 1 ET

Colts -3.5 | Total 36.5.

This is one where we actually have useful rotation information.

Indianapolis:

Anthony Richardson: first quarter
Riley Leonard: second quarter
Easton Stick: second half
Daniel Jones: not playing.

Detroit is expected to sit its starters, with Josh Dobbs and rookie Luke Altmyer splitting quarterback work.

Indianapolis has more first-half quarterback motivation and is giving Richardson legitimate work.

Chicago at Tennessee — 6 ET

Titans -2.5 | Total 36.5.

Chicago is 1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U. Tennessee plans to play Cam Ward and its starters considerably longer, with the working plan calling for more than 30 snaps. Chicago has been less committed to a heavy Caleb Williams workload. He won’t play for Chicago, which means a lot of Case Keenum and Miller Moss, battling for the No. 3 spot behind Tyson Bagent. 

 

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

Upcoming and Current Events at ATS:

  • Week 3 of Preseason Football won 3 of 4 days last week. College Football starts on Saturday in Week 0!
  • UFC has won 5 of the last 7 weeks. Discounts are available.
    __________________________________________________________________

How crucial are Power Ratings when it comes to Handicapping College Football?

Posted on by Mat Daily

College Football kicks off on Saturday, August 29! Preseason Week 3 begins on Thursday! UFC Wins 5 of the last 7 weeks. This weekend, the card emanates from China.

 

Power ratings are one of the most important tools in college football handicapping, but they should be viewed as the starting point—not the final answer.

For a bettor,  think of power ratings as your estimate of how good each team is independent of the current betting market. They help you answer the most important question:

“If these two teams played on a neutral field today, what should the point spread be?”

Why power ratings matter

1. They create your own fair line

Suppose your ratings say:

  • Team A: +18
  • Team B: +10

Team A is 8 points better on a neutral field.

If Team A is playing at home, you might add 2–3 points for home field, making your fair spread roughly:

Team A -10.5

If the sportsbook has Team A -7, you potentially have 3.5 points of value.

That’s the basic handicapping application.

2. They prevent you from overreacting to rankings

This is especially important in college football.

AP rankings, CFP rankings and preseason expectations aren’t the same thing as a betting power rating.

A team can be:

  • No. 12 in the country but only a 6-point favorite over another strong team.
  • Unranked but actually 10–15 points better than another unranked team.
  • 3-0 while being substantially worse than a 1-2 team that faced much tougher opponents.

Power ratings attempt to strip away some of the noise from record, rankings and recent results.

3. They become even more valuable early in the season

This is particularly relevant to the 2026 season you’re handicapping right now.

There isn’t enough current-season data yet to rely heavily on traditional statistical metrics.

Early in the year, I would build ratings from:

Preseason rating
→ returning production
→ transfer portal
→ QB situation
→ coaching changes
→ recruiting/talent
→ returning starters
→ previous-season performance
→ schedule strength

Then gradually incorporate actual 2026 performance.

The weighting should change as the season progresses.

Time of seasonPreseason informationCurrent-season results
Week 0–1Very importantLimited
Weeks 2–3ImportantIncreasing
Weeks 4–6ModerateImportant
Weeks 7–10SmallerVery important
Late seasonMinimalDominant

The biggest mistake: using power ratings blindly

A power rating might tell you:

Ohio State 90
Michigan 84

That doesn’t automatically mean Ohio State should be -6.

You still need to account for:

  • Home-field advantage
  • Injuries
  • Starting QB availability
  • Backup QB quality
  • Weather
  • Rest
  • Bye weeks
  • Travel
  • Look-ahead spots
  • Rivalry games
  • Coaching changes
  • Motivation
  • Matchup-specific strengths
  • Tempo
  • Offensive/defensive scheme
  • Line movement

And there’s another huge consideration:

The market itself

Your goal isn’t simply to determine which team is better.

It’s to determine whether the betting line is wrong.

For example:

Your power rating: Ohio State -9
Market: Ohio State -5.5

That’s potentially valuable.

But if the market moves to:

Ohio State -8.5

your edge has largely disappeared.

That’s why I would track your fair line vs. the market line, rather than simply ranking teams 1–138.

The best power-rating system for college football

1. Overall power rating

“How good is this team?”

Example:

TeamPower Rating
Team A91.5
Team B87.0
Team C84.5

This establishes the baseline.

2. Offensive rating

How many points would the offense be expected to score against an average FBS defense?

3. Defensive rating

How many points would the defense be expected to allow against an average FBS offense?

This becomes particularly useful for matchup handicapping.

For example:

Team A

  • Elite offense
  • Average defense

Team B

  • Average offense
  • Elite defense

A raw power rating might say Team A -4.

But the matchup could produce a very different game depending on pace, explosiveness and the ability of Team B’s defense to slow Team A’s offense.

Power ratings + SOS + turnover margin

Given your recent interest in turnover ratio and strength of schedule, these three variables work extremely well together.

I’d use them like this:

Power Rating
→ How good is the team?

Strength of Schedule
→ How difficult have its opponents been?

Turnover Margin
→ How much of the team’s performance might be driven by variance/luck?

For example:

Team A is 8-1, +14 turnover margin, but has played the nation’s 80th-ranked schedule.

Team B is 6-3, -5 turnover margin, and has played the nation’s 8th-ranked schedule.

A basic bettor might automatically prefer Team A.

A good power-rating model may conclude that Team B is actually the better team.

That’s exactly the kind of situation where power ratings can uncover betting value.

College Football Power Ratings

 Team                                                                                                                                PR             HF

   
Air Force724
Akron673
UAB653
Alabama925
Arizona854
Arizona State864
Arkansas844
Arkansas State683
Army733
Auburn894
Ball State633
Boise State844
Boston College753
Bowling Green683
Buffalo693
BYU895
Central Michigan713
California834
Charlotte612
Cincinnati823
Clemson885
Coastal Carolina673
Colorado835
Colorado State765
Connecticut683
Delaware642
Duke894
East Carolina754
Eastern Michigan683
Florida905
Florida Atlantic (FAU)783
Florida Intl (FIU)723
Florida State854
Fresno State834
Georgia965
Georgia Southern703
Georgia State653
Georgia Tech864
Hawaii795
Houston884
Illinois874
Indiana954
Iowa894
Iowa State834
JMU804
Jacksonville State683
Kansas844
Kansas State865
Kennesaw State673
Kent State632
Kentucky854
Liberty733
Louisiana712
Louisiana Tech723
Louisville884
LSU935
Marshall743
Maryland813
Memphis783
Miami-Fla.945
Miami-Ohio713
Michigan915
Michigan State804
Middle Tenn State632
Minnesota874
Mississippi (Ole Miss)905
Mississippi State864
Missouri884
Missouri State622
No. Illinois633
North Texas703
Navy773
NC State823
Nebraska834
Nevada713
New Mexico774
New Mexico State663
North Carolina803
North Dakota State784
Northwestern793
Notre Dame955
Ohio673
Ohio State985
Oklahoma945
Oklahoma State874
Old Dominion (ODU)713
Oregon965
Oregon State693
Penn State885
Pittsburgh854
Purdue783
Rice673
Rutgers803
South Alabama764
South Florida834
Sacramento State633
Sam Houston State692
San Diego State804
San Jose State683
SMU884
South Carolina863
Southern Miss622
Stanford794
Syracuse804
TCU854
Temple703
Tennessee895
Texas955
Texas A&M935
Texas State793
Texas Tech924
Toledo713
Troy723
Tulane754
Tulsa703
UCF (Central Florida)824
UCLA834
UConn683
UL Monroe642
UMass582
UNLV773
USC904
Utah875
Utah State794
UTEP612
UTSA793
Vanderbilt864
Virginia853
Virginia Tech864
Western Kentucky683
Western Michigan693
Wake Forest803
Washington884
Washington State803
West Virginia825
Wisconsin845
Wyoming713

PR: Power Rating; HF: Home Field. A power play occurs when the line differs from our line by five or more points.

 

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

Upcoming and Current Events at ATS:

  • Week 3 of Preseason Football won 3 of 4 days last week. College Football starts on Saturday in Week 0!
  • UFC has won 5 of the last 7 weeks. Discounts are available.
    __________________________________________________________________

How important is Turnover Ratio when it comes to handicapping College Football?

Posted on by Mat Daily

College Football kicks off on Saturday, August 29! Last week of preseason begins on Thursday. UFC Wins 5 of the last 7 weeks.

One of the most important handicapping tools is turnover ratio. Let’s look at those numbers from last season.

Turnover ratio can be a valuable college football handicapping tool, but it works best as a diagnostic rather than a stand-alone reason to make a bet. The key is determining whether a team’s turnover performance reflects repeatable skill or results that are likely to regress.

How to use turnover ratio when handicapping college football

1. Look for turnover regression

Extremely positive or negative turnover margins often don’t carry over cleanly from one season to the next.

For example, if a team finished +15 in turnover margin and won several close games, ask how much of its success depended on turnovers. If that team loses its quarterback, ball-hawking defensive backs, or other key personnel, you may want to downgrade it entering the following season.

The reverse can be useful too. A good team that went -10 despite otherwise strong offensive and defensive numbers could be an improvement candidate if the underlying causes aren’t persistent.

2. Separate takeaways from giveaways

A +10 turnover margin can be produced in very different ways:

  • Team A: 25 takeaways, 15 giveaways.
  • Team B: 15 takeaways, 5 giveaways.

Team A may have an aggressive defense capable of creating pressure and mistakes. Team B may simply have protected the football exceptionally well. Knowing how the margin was created tells you more than the final number.

3. Study the quarterback

Quarterback play is especially important because interceptions and fumbles can be more predictive when they result from identifiable tendencies.

Look at a QB’s interception rate, turnover-worthy plays, pressure performance, sack/fumble tendencies and experience level. A team replacing a veteran quarterback who rarely turned the ball over shouldn’t automatically be expected to maintain the previous season’s turnover ratio.

4. Evaluate whether defensive takeaways are sustainable

Interceptions are more believable when a defense consistently generates pressure, sacks, pass breakups and hurried throws. Fumble recoveries deserve more caution because which team recovers a loose football can be highly variable.

A defense that recovered an unusually large percentage of available fumbles may be a regression candidate.

5. Combine turnover ratio with strength of schedule

This is particularly useful for preseason handicapping.

Suppose a team went +12 in turnovers in 2025, but its 2026 schedule becomes substantially more difficult. Facing better quarterbacks, offensive lines and coaching staffs could make those takeaways harder to reproduce.

Conversely, a team that had a poor turnover margin against a difficult schedule and now faces easier competition deserves another look.

6. Find misleading records

Turnovers can help explain why a team’s win-loss record doesn’t match its underlying performance.

Consider a hypothetical 9-3 team that was +16 in turnovers and 5-1 in one-score games. That profile could indicate a team whose record overstates how dominant it actually was.

Now compare it with a 6-6 team that was -12 in turnovers and 1-5 in one-score games. If its efficiency numbers were otherwise solid, that team could offer hidden value the following season.

7. Use turnovers with point spreads—not just winners

Turnovers have enormous leverage because they can create short fields, defensive touchdowns and lost scoring opportunities. That means they can distort final scores.

A team losing 35-21 after committing four turnovers may have played much closer to its opponent than the 14-point margin suggests. Reviewing yards per play, success rate and field position alongside turnovers can reveal whether the final score was misleading.

FactorWhat to examine
2025 Turnover MarginHow extreme was it?
GiveawaysQB interceptions and team fumbles
TakeawaysINTs and forced/recovered fumbles
Returning PersonnelQB, OL, pass rushers and secondary
2026 Schedule StrengthWill turnovers become easier or harder to generate?

Then categorize teams as Positive Regression, Neutral, or Negative Regression.

For example:

2025 +15 TO margin + low fumble-recovery luck + harder 2026 schedule = potential downgrade.

2025 -12 TO margin + experienced returning QB + strong underlying statistics + easier 2026 schedule = potential upgrade.

The biggest handicapping mistake is simply saying, “Team X was +15 last year, so they’re good at turnovers.” The better question is: Why were they +15, and how much of that advantage should reasonably continue in 2026?

For preseason college football handicapping, combining 2025 turnover ratio + 2026 strength of schedule + returning starters + quarterback experience + close-game results can be considerably more informative than turnover ratio by itself.

 

2025 College Football Turnover Ratio

Team                                                                                                            TO Margin                Ratio/Game

   
Arizona+18+1.38
Indiana+22+1.38
UConn+15+1.15
Notre Dame+13+1.08
Southern Miss+14+1.08
Texas+14+1.08
Texas Tech+14+1.00
Kansas State+11+0.92
Temple+11+0.92
East Carolina+10+0.77
Auburn+9+0.75
Duke+10+0.71
Jacksonville State+10+0.71
SMU+9+0.69
North Texas+9+0.64
Western Michigan+9+0.64
Miami (FL)+10+0.63
Louisiana Tech+8+0.62
Maryland+7+0.58
BYU+8+0.57
Tulane+8+0.57
LSU+7+0.54
Memphis+7+0.54
Minnesota+7+0.54
Marshall+6+0.50
UNLV+7+0.50
Virginia+7+0.50
Alabama+7+0.47
Fresno State+6+0.46
Georgia Southern+6+0.46
Toledo+6+0.46
UTSA+6+0.46
Utah+6+0.46
Utah State+6+0.46
Oregon+6+0.40
Army+5+0.38
Central Michigan+5+0.38
Illinois+5+0.38
South Florida+5+0.38
Washington+5+0.38
Miami (OH)+5+0.36
Iowa State+4+0.33
South Carolina+4+0.33
Houston+4+0.31
Tennessee+4+0.31
Ohio State+4+0.29
Akron+3+0.25
South Alabama+3+0.25
Louisville+3+0.23
Mississippi State+3+0.23
NC State+3+0.23
Penn State+3+0.23
San Diego State+3+0.23
Vanderbilt+3+0.23
Bowling Green+2+0.17
Middle Tennessee+2+0.17
Northern Illinois+2+0.17
Sam Houston+2+0.17
West Virginia+2+0.17
Clemson+2+0.15
Michigan+2+0.15
Nebraska+2+0.15
USC+2+0.15
Boise State+2+0.14
Iowa+1+0.08
Navy+1+0.08
Old Dominion+1+0.08
TCU+1+0.08
James Madison+1+0.07
Ole Miss+1+0.07
Coastal Carolina00.00
FIU00.00
Georgia00.00
New Mexico State00.00
Rutgers00.00
Troy00.00
Louisiana-1-0.08
Northwestern-1-0.08
Florida-1-0.08
Pittsburgh-2-0.15
Air Force-2-0.17
Colorado-2-0.17
Appalachian State-3-0.23
California-3-0.23
Hawaii-3-0.23
Ohio-3-0.23
Oklahoma-3-0.23
Ball State-3-0.25
Kansas-3-0.25
Kent State-3-0.25
Michigan State-3-0.25
North Carolina-3-0.25
UCLA-3-0.25
Wyoming-3-0.25
Kennesaw State-4-0.29
Cincinnati-4-0.31
Rice-4-0.31
Texas State-4-0.31
Colorado State-4-0.33
Stanford-4-0.33
UCF-4-0.33
Missouri-5-0.38
Eastern Michigan-5-0.42
Florida State-5-0.42
Oklahoma State-5-0.42
Arizona State-6-0.46
Georgia Tech-6-0.46
New Mexico-6-0.46
Wake Forest-6-0.46
Arkansas State-7-0.54
Western Kentucky-7-0.54
Buffalo-7-0.58
Liberty-7-0.58
UMass-7-0.58
Charlotte-8-0.67
Kentucky-8-0.67
Virginia Tech-8-0.67
Texas A&M-9-0.69
Washington State-9-0.69
Boston College-9-0.75
Tulsa-9-0.75
ULM-10-0.83
Arkansas-11-0.92
Georgia State-11-0.92
Oregon State-11-0.92
Wisconsin-11-0.92
Nevada-12-1.00
Purdue-12-1.00
UAB-12-1.00
UTEP-12-1.00
Baylor-13-1.08
San Jose State-13-1.08
Syracuse-13-1.08
Florida Atlantic-21-1.75

_____________________________________________________________________________________________

Upcoming and Current Events at ATS:

  • Week 3 of Preseason Football won 3 of 4 days last week. College Football starts on Saturday in Week 0!
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Who are the Top Transfers in College Football?

Posted on by Mat Daily

College Football kicks off on Saturday, August 29! Last week of preseason begins on Thursday. UFC Wins 5 of the last 7 weeks.

The 2026 transfer portal has produced several players who could materially change the national championship, CFP and conference races. I’d rank them based on proven production + talent + expected role + team impact, rather than simply portal recruiting grade.

Top 15 FBS Transfers for 2026
Rank Player Position 2025 School → 2026 School Why he matters
1 Sam Leavitt QB Arizona State → LSU Proven winner and dynamic dual-threat; LSU’s biggest portal addition
2 Brendan Sorsby QB Cincinnati → Texas Tech Big arm, mobility and proven production; potentially transformative for Tech
3 Drew Mestemaker QB North Texas → Oklahoma State One of the most productive passers to enter the portal
4 Cam Coleman WR Auburn → Texas Elite physical talent and explosive-play potential
5 Josh Hoover QB TCU → Indiana Experienced Power-conference QB joining the defending national champion
6 Jordan Seaton OT Tennessee → LSU Massive offensive-line addition with elite upside
7 Princewill Umanmielen EDGE Ole Miss → LSU High-level pass-rush talent; gives LSU another disruptive defender
8 DJ Lagway QB Florida → Baylor Former elite recruit looking for a reset; enormous upside if healthy
9 Nick Marsh WR Michigan State → Indiana Big, productive target who should immediately help Indiana’s passing game
10 Eugene Wilson III WR Florida → LSU Explosive slot/space weapon who could thrive in Lane Kiffin’s offense
11 Colton Joseph QB Old Dominion → Wisconsin Dual-threat QB who could give Wisconsin a different offensive identity
12 John Henry Daley EDGE Washington → Michigan Elite pass-rush production; PFF credited him with 51 pressures and 10 sacks in 2025
13 Aidan Chiles QB Michigan State → Northwestern Experienced starter with significant upside in a new environment
14 Michael Hawkins Jr. QB Oklahoma → West Virginia Athletic QB with Power Four experience; important piece of WVU’s rebuild
15 Aaron Philo QB Georgia Tech → Florida Won Florida’s QB competition and takes over for DJ Lagway

More quarterbacks

DJ Lagway — Baylor from Florida

Cutter Boley-Arizona State from Kentucky

Dylan Raiola- Oregon from Nebraska

Byrum Brown – Auburn from USF

Colton Joseph – Wisconsin from ODU

Alberto Mendoza – Georgia Tech from Indiana

Rocco Becht – Penn State from Iowa State

Biggest Defensive transfer?
John Henry Daley-Michigan from Utah
At Utah, Daley recorded 11.5 sacks and 17.5 tackles for loss with 48 tackles and two forced fumbles.. He followed coach Kyle Whittingham from Utah to Michigan.

Most underrated?
S Koi Perich -Oregon from Minnesota
One of the best safeties in America. He’s also elite as a kick and punt returner.

________________________________________________________________________________________

Upcoming and Current Events at ATS:

  • Week 3 of Preseason Football won 3 of 4 days last week. College Football starts on Saturday in Week 0!
  • UFC has won 5 of the last 7 weeks. Discounts are available.
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Approach to Betting on Week 0 in College Football

Posted on by Mat Daily

College Football kicks off on Saturday, August 29! Last week of preseason begins on Thursday. UFC Wins 5 of the last 7 weeks.

Week 0 should be approached very differently from a normal college-football Saturday.


 The 2026 FBS Week 0 slate is only eight games on Saturday, Aug. 29, so there is much less information and a much smaller betting menu than you’ll have once Week 1 arrives.

Week 0 betting philosophy

1. Bet fewer games, not more

The biggest mistake is treating Week 0 like a full Saturday and forcing action. With only eight FBS games, I’d be comfortable making 1–3 bets rather than taking a position on every game.

The current slate includes:

  • North Carolina vs. TCU
  • San Jose State at USC
  • NC State at Virginia
  • Jacksonville State at North Dakota State
  • Sacramento State at Eastern Michigan
  • Hawai’i at Stanford
  • New Mexico State at Florida State
  • Memphis at UNLV

2. Make coaching and QB research your priority

This is probably the most important Week 0 adjustment.

You don’t have a meaningful 2026 game sample yet, so I’d put substantially more weight on:

  • Starting QB and backup QB situation
  • Returning offensive line production
  • New offensive/defensive coordinators
  • Head-coach changes
  • Transfer additions
  • Returning production
  • Defensive front seven
  • How much of the system is new
  • Whether the team has a significant Week 1 matchup to prepare for

For Week 0, continuity is particularly valuable. A team returning its QB, play-caller and much of its offensive line has a much smaller uncertainty factor than a team installing a new offense.

3. Don’t blindly bet preseason rankings

This is a classic early-season trap.

For example, TCU is currently ranked No. 23 in the preseason coaches poll, and FanDuel had TCU around -7.5 against North Carolina in the early Week 0 market.

But don’t automatically conclude:

“Ranked team vs. unranked team = easy favorite.”

Instead ask whether the number already accounts for the perceived talent gap.

If your power rating makes TCU -4 but the market is -7.5, you aren’t getting a bargain just because TCU is the better team.

4. Pay special attention to travel and unusual venues

Week 0 has some unusual circumstances.

UNC–TCU is in Dublin, while NC State–Virginia was originally scheduled for Rio de Janeiro before being moved to Charlottesville.

International games can introduce variables involving:

  • Travel
  • Time-zone adjustment
  • Practice schedules
  • Crowd/environment
  • Preparation
  • Familiarity with the venue
  • Hydration/recovery

Don’t automatically assume travel hurts the favorite. Look at which team is better equipped to handle the situation.

5. Be careful with totals

Early-season totals are particularly interesting because offensive uncertainty is enormous.

For example, the early market had:

UNC–TCU: 47.5
NC State–Virginia: 53.5
Hawai’i–Stanford: 49.5
Memphis–UNLV: 57.5

Before betting an over, I would want answers to:

  • Are both starting QBs confirmed?
  • How much offensive-line continuity exists?
  • Are the offensive coordinators new?
  • How aggressive are the coaches?
  • Does either team have a strong defensive front?
  • Are there weather concerns?
  • Is the market expecting offensive improvement based primarily on reputation?

I generally prefer waiting on Week 0 totals rather than automatically betting them early.

6. Look for information advantages, not just “best teams”

This is where I think Week 0 can actually be valuable for bettors.

You’re looking for situations where your information differs from the market’s assumptions.

A few examples:

New coach + new QB + new OC:
High uncertainty → be cautious.

Returning QB + returning OC + veteran OL:
Lower uncertainty → potentially stronger early-season handicap.

Huge favorite:
Don’t ask “Will they win?” Ask “Will they win by enough?”

Florida State was around -31.5 against New Mexico State in the early market.

That’s a completely different handicap from simply predicting Florida State to win.

7. Don’t overreact to Week 0 results

This is crucial.

If a team wins 42-10, bettors may immediately upgrade it dramatically.

If another team loses 31-17, the market may downgrade it.

Don’t chase the box score.

Instead, look at:

  • Yards per play
  • Success rate
  • Explosive plays
  • Early-down efficiency
  • QB performance
  • Offensive line
  • Havoc rate
  • Turnovers
  • Special teams
  • Garbage-time production

A 35-point victory generated by +4 turnovers isn’t necessarily evidence that a team is 35 points better.

Don’t try to predict everything. Try to identify what you know better than the market.

Build a Week 0 power rating, compare it with the sportsbook number, and only bet when you have a meaningful difference.

Because the 2026 Week 0 market is already posting numbers,  track line movement from now through kickoff rather than simply recording today’s line. The current sportsbook numbers, for example, are explicitly subject to change.

Ideal Week 0 process: establish your own number → monitor injuries/QBs → monitor the market → compare your number to the closing number → bet only when the edge is large enough.

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Upcoming and Current Events at ATS:

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NFL Preseason Week 2 Betting Previews: Saturday, Aug. 22-Sunday, Aug. 23

Posted on by Mat Daily

Week 2 of Preseason Football kicked off on Thursday, going 2-1. College Football kicks off on Aug. 29. UFC Wins 5 of the last 6 weeks. Big card from Sacramento goes on Saturday.

We are back with Week 2 of the preseason, which, in some cases, might be a dress rehearsal for Week 3 as in years past. However, this week, with two games Thursday, three on Friday, 10 on Saturday and one on Sunday, is still about competition and players trying to make a roster. Let’s take an inside look at Friday, Saturday and Sunday’s matchups.

Friday’s games

NY Jets at Pittsburgh (NFL Network), 7pmET. 

Odds: NY Jets -1.5

Total:  36.5

Line Moves: Pittsburgh opened at -3.5 on Aug 18 and moved to NY Jets -1.5 by Wednesday.

Last week: Pittsburgh (+3) handled Green Bay 28-9 at home; The NY Jets (-5.5) lost at home to Tampa Bay 24-16.

Notes: Mike McCarthy is 33-4 SU but had gone 5-8 SU in his last 13 games in Dallas before winning last week. Aaron Glenn is 1-3 SU.

QB Rotations: Geno Smith (ankle) missed last week and has struggled in training camp so he might need the reps. If he doesn’t play, rookie Cade Klubnik should get plenty of time as he’s been playing well in camp. They also have Bailey Zappe and Brady Cook in the mix. Aaron Glenn does want to play the starters with or without Smith. As for Pittsburgh, no Aaron Rodgers or Mason Rudolph. That means the first half of Will Howard and a second half of rookie Drew Allar, who played well last week.

Carolina at Jacksonville (ESPN Unlimited), 7:30pmET

Odds: Carolina -1.5

Total: 37.5

Line Moves: Jacksonville opened at -2.5 on Aug 18 and moved to Carolina -1.5 on Wednesday night.

Last week: Carolina (+3) fell on the road to Buffalo 29-14; Jacksonville (+2.5) edged New Orleans 24-20 on the road.

Notes: Liam Coen is 1-2 SU in preseason. Dave Canales and Carolina won the HOF game, but he’s still just 2-5 SU in the preseason. 

QB Rotations: Starters are expected to play for a “couple of drives” for the Jags, including Trevor Lawrence. Carolina is expected to play their starters 10-20 snap inclduing QB Bryce Young. Young went 3 of 5 for 18 yards last week.

Green Bay at Denver (NFL Network), 9pmET

Odds: Denver -6

Total: 41.5

Line Moves: The line opened on Aug 17 at Denver -4.5 and moved to 6 by Aug 19.

Last week: Green Bay (-3) fell at Pittsburgh 28-9; Denver (-3) beat Atlanta 27-7 on the road.

Notes: Sean Payton is 37-33 SU overall in preseason and 6-1 his last 7 in Denver. Matt LaFleur is 9-11 SU overall, but 6-4 SU the last 10 in Green Bay.

QB Rotations: Jordan Love played a little last week and will play at least a series this week against Denver along with the starters. Tyrod Taylor will be the backup again. Denver will play QB Box Nix and the starters some time after not playing last week. But expect Jarrett Stidham and Sam Ehlinger to continue to battle for the backup job.

Saturday’s games

Washington at Detroit (ESPN), 12pmET: 

Odds: Detroit -1.5

Total: 36.5

Opened at Detroit -2.5 and 36.5.

Last week:  Detroit (+6.5) lost on the road to Cincinnati 16-14, but covered; Washington (+3.5) beat Miami 20-7 at home.

Notes: Dan Campbell (Det) is 5-11 SU in preseason. Dan Quinn (Was) is 8-19 SU and 2-4 with Washington. 

QB Rotations: Campbell usually rests his starters. No Jared Goff, but newly-signed Josh Dobbs will get the start at QB, ahead of rookie Luke Altmyer. Both are competing for the backup job with Teddy Bridgewater retiring last week (again). Quinn has not decided on whether Jayden Daniels will start, but most of the starters are expected to play. Backup QB Marcus Mariota (knee) is out, which means Sam Hartman and rookie Athan Kaliakmanis will get most of the time.      

Buffalo at Cleveland, 1pmET (NFL Network):

Odds:  Cleveland -3

Total: 37

Opened: Cleveland -1.5/39.5.

Last week: The Bills (-3) beat Carolina 29-14 at home; the Browns (-3) lost at Chicago 34-10.

Notes: Todd Monken is 0-1 SU and Joe Brady is 1-0 SU in preseason.

QB Rotations:  Cleveland will start Shedeur Sanders, and Deshaun Watson is expected to play the 2nd half. After playing last week, Josh Allen will sit, and the starters are not expected to play.

Atlanta at Indianapolis, 1pmET. 

Odds: Indy -3.5

Total:  36

Opening Lines: Indy -1.5/37.5

Last week: Indianapolis (-3) tied New England 13-13; Atlanta (+3) lost at home to Denver 27-7.

Notes: Kevin Stefanski is 7-8 SU in preseason and 2-4 SU in his last 6 games. Shane Steichen (Indy) is 5-4-1 SU.

QB Rotations: Stefanski will not play his starters this week and with Michael Penix Jr. still out with an injury, Jack Strand will take over first-team reps, while Cooper Rush will likely play the 2nd half. The Colts will go with Riley Leonard and Anthony Richardson will be the backup. Daniel Jones will not play at all in preseason.

Baltimore at Minnesota (ESPN Unlimited), 1pmET

Odds: Minnesota -3.5

Total: 36.5

Opening Lines: Minnesota -2.5/37.5.

Last week: Baltimore (+3.5) beat Philadelphia at home 24-7; Minnesota (-1) edged the NY Giants on the road 13-10.

Notes: Jesse Minter is 1-0 SU in preseason. Kevin O’Connell is 5-8 SU, but is 5-2 SU in his last 7 games. 

QB Rotations: Baltimore will not play Lamar Jackson in preseason and most of their starters will sit as well. Tyler Huntley had just seven passing attempts last week as rookie Joe Fagnano received most of the reps at QB. J.J. McCarthy will start, and most Minnesota starters will sit. Starter Kyler Murray threw just three passes last week. The Vikes also played Carson Wentz (9 of 14) and Max Brosmer (1 of 2). 

New Orleans at LA Rams (ESPN Unlimited), 4pmET

Odds: New Orleans -2

Total: 37

Opening Lines: New Orleans -2/Total 37.5

Last week: New Orleans (-2.5) lost at home to Jacksonville 24-20;  The LA Rams (+1.5) beat Kansas City on the road 20-12. 

Notes: Kellen Moore (NO) is 0-3 SU in preseason; Sean McVay is 12-16 SU.

QB Rotations: NO starter Tyler Shough will sit this one out. Spencer Rattler and Zach Wilson will split time. The first stringers will also sit. As for the Rams, McVay is consistent with not playing his starters in preseason. Rookie Ty Simpson shined last week with 25 pass attempts, while Stetson Bennett IV had just six. Bennett is vying for the backup spot with Simpson, so he should play more this week.

NY Giants at Miami, (NFL Network), 4pmET

Odds: NY Giants -3

Total: 37

Opening Lines: NY Giants -1.5/37.5

Last Week: The Giants (+1) lost to Minnesota at home 13-10; Miami (-3.5) lost at Washington 20-7.

Notes: Jeff Hafley (MIA) is 0-1 SU in preseason; John Harbaugh is 48-17 SU.

QB Rotations: The Giants signed QB Jake Haener last week after Joe Webb retired. They do need another body and Jaxson Dart, who took a big hit last week, might not play, though Harbaugh has not announced anything as of Thursday night. Expect a lot of Jameis Winston and Brandon Allen behind most second- and third-stringers. Quinn Ewers didn’t practice Monday, so Miami could be thin at QB, even if Malik Willis plays a series or two (hasn’t been announced). Willis completed 4 of 5 passes for 43 yards last week. Expect a lot of Cam Miller and Mark Gronowski. 

Chicago at Cincinnati, 7pmET

Odds: Chicago -1.5

Total: 36.5

Opening Lines: Cincinnati -2/40.5.

Last week: Chicago (+3) crushed Cleveland 34-10 at home; Cincinnati (-6.5) beat Chicago 16-14 at home but didn’t cover.

Notes: Ben Johnson (Chi) is 3-0 SU in preseason; Zac Taylor is 5-14 SU.

QB Rotations: Chicago is expected to play their starters in Game 2, including QB Caleb Williams and Case Keenum will get the rest of the snaps, although Tyson Bagent (hamstring) was hurt last week and is “week-to-week”. Joe Burrow played 13 snaps for the Bengals last week, but the starters will not play for the rest of preseason. That means a lot of Joe Flacco and Josh Johnson. 

Philadelphia at New England (NFL Network), 7pmET

Odds: Philadelphia -2.5

Total: 36.5

Opening Lines: Philadelphia -1/37.5

Last week: Philadelphia (-3.5)  lost at Baltimore 24-7; New England (+3) tied Indianapolis 13-13 at home.

Notes: Nick Sirianni is 5-9 SU in preseason; Mike Vrabel (NE) is 9-10 SU in preseason.

QB Rotations: Considering the fact that Jalen Hurts played a lot in joint practices with the Patriots this week, he’s not going to start this week. They started Andy Dalton, who is battling Tanner McKee for the backup job. The Pats used Tommy DeVito and Behren Morton last week and expect them to play them again, with Drake Maye having nothing to prove. 

Kansas City at Tampa Bay (ESPN Unlimited), 7:30pmET

Odds: Tampa Bay -5

Total: 37

Opening Lines: Kansas City -1.5/36.5

Last week: KC (-1.5) lost to the LA Rams at home 20-12; Tampa Bay (+5.5) beat the NY Jets 24-16 on the road.

Notes: Andy Reid is 46-54 SU in preseason and 0-7 SU in his last 7 games. Todd Bowles is 14-15 SU and 7-3 SU in his last 10 games. 

QB Rotations: Normally, Patrick Mahomes would play in preseason, but he’s coming off a major injury, so Justin Fields and Garrett Nussmeier will get most of the reps at QB. Chris Oladokun could also get time. As for Tampa Bay, Baker Mayfield will get the start this week along with the starters. Jake Browning was hurt in practice and didn’t play in Game 1. Jalon Daniels impressed last week and should get more time again. 

Dallas at Arizona (NFL Network), 10pmET

Odds: Arizona -1

Total: 38

Opening Lines: Arizona -1.5/37.5.

Last week: Arizona (+3) beat Las Vegas 27-14 on the road; Dallas (+1.5) beat Seattle 17-7 on the road.

Notes: Mike LaFleur is 1-1 SU in preseason; Brian Schottenheimer is 2-2 SU.

QB Rotations: Dak Prescott won’t play, but Joe Milton and Sam Howell are battling for the backup role. Milton completed 12 of 15 for 107 yards last week, while Howell was solid, completing 8 of 12 for 94 yards with a TD. Rookie RB Jermiyah Love is out. Arizona has a pretty good QB rotation even if Jacoby Brissett doesn’t play and he’s out. Gardner Minshew will start and Kedon Slovis will mop up. Rookie Carson Beck is also hurt. 

Sunday, August 23

Seattle at Tennessee, 8pmET (Fox).

Odds: Tennessee -4.5

Total: 38

Opening Lines: Tennessee -2.5/38.5

Last week: Seattle (-1.5) lost to Dallas 17-7 at home; Tennessee beat San Francisco (-6.5) 19-13 on the road last week, but didn’t cover.

Notes: Mike Macdonald is 3-3 SU in preseason. Robert Saleh is 11-2 SU in preseason, mostly with the Jets.

QB Rotations: Tennessee has issues at QB as Mitch Trubisky was injured in practice on Monday. Starter Cam Ward has struggled thus far in practice and is expected to play as long as one half in this game. As for Seattle, Drew Lock and Jalen Milroe will see extended playing time. Expect Seattle to rest most of their starters.

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Upcoming and Current Events at ATS:

  • Week 2 of Preseason Football kicked off on Thursday with two big winners on San Francisco and Las Vegas! ATS enters its 34th football season. Big game coming up this weekend. Huge Saturday offers 10 games. Some Early Bird discounts are still available!
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NFL Preseason Week 2 Betting Previews: Thursday, Aug. 20-Friday, Aug. 21

Posted on by Mat Daily

Week 2 of Preseason starts on Thursday. College Football kicks off on Aug. 29. UFC Wins 5 of the last 6 weeks!

We are back with Week 2 of preseason, which in some cases might be a dress rehearsal as in year’s past for Week 3. However, this week with two games Thursday, three on Friday, 10 on Saturday and one on Sunday, is still about competition and players trying to make a roster. Let’s take an inside look at Thursday and Friday’s matchups.

Thursday’s games

Las Vegas at Houston (ESPN), 8pmET: 

Odds: Las Vegas -1.5

Total: 37

Line Moves:  Las Vegas opened at -1.5 on Aug 17 and moved to -1 Houston at BetMGM. DraftKings has the Raiders at -1.5 +100 on Thursday night.

Last week:  Houston (+1) lost 27-7 at home to the LA Chargers; the Raiders (-3) lost 27-14 at home against Arizona.

Notes: Klint Kubiak is now 0-1 SU/ATS in his career with the Raiders. DeMeco Ryans is now 7-4 SU.

QB Rotations:  The Raiders are expected to give rookie Fernando Mendoza a lot of time after a so-so first game (10-of-16). Some starters should play against Houston. Expect a lot of Aidan O’Connell in the second half, which might be good news for Houston. The Texans were bad offensively last week with Davis Mills and Graham Mertz, with 98 net passing yards. CJ Stroud is not expected to play and most starters will rest.

San Francisco at LA Chargers (NFL Network), 10pnET:

Odds:  San Francisco -1.5

Total: 37.5

Line Moves: The Chargers opened at -1.5 on Aug. 17 in the morning and moved to San Francisco -1.5 on Thursday night at BetMGM. The total started at 39.5 on Aug. 17 and moved to 37.5

Last week: The Chargers (-1) beat Houston 27-7 on the road; San Fran fell at home to Tennessee 19-13. They covered the 6.5 points.

Notes: Kyle Shanahan is 14-13 SU, while Jim Harbaugh is 14-10 SU (4-4 with Chargers).

QB Rotations:  Despite recent OL injuries, Justin Herbert is expected to start and play one series along with the rest of the starters. Kyle Shanahan said he’ll play some of the starters, unlike last week. There’s no chance that Christian McCaffrey and Nick Bosa will play since they are dealing with injuries, while WR Mike Evans (tightness) is not likely to play. QB Brock Purdy is likely to play.

Friday’s games

NY Jets at Pittsburgh (NFL Network), 7pmET. 

Odds: NY Jets -1.5

Total:  36.5

Line Moves: Pittsburgh opened at -3.5 on Aug 18 and moved to NY Jets -1.5 by Wednesday.

Last week: Pittsburgh (+3) handled Green Bay 28-9 at home; The NY Jets (-5.5) lost at home to Tampa Bay 24-16.

Notes: Mike McCarthy is 33-4 SU but had gone 5-8 SU in his last 13 games in Dallas before winning last week. Aaron Glenn is 1-3 SU.

QB Rotations: Geno Smith (ankle) missed last week and has struggled in training camp so he might need the reps. If he doesn’t play, rookie Cade Klubnik should get plenty of time as he’s been playing well in camp. They also have Bailey Zappe and Brady Cook in the mix. Aaron Glenn does want to play the starters with or without Smith. As for Pittsburgh, no Aaron Rodgers or Mason Rudolph. That means the first half of Will Howard and a second half of rookie Drew Allar, who played well last week.

Carolina at Jacksonville (ESPN Unlimited), 7:30pmET

Odds: Carolina -1.5

Total: 37.5

Line Moves: Jacksonville opened at -2.5 on Aug 18 and moved to Carolina -1.5 on Wednesday night.

Last week: Carolina (+3) fell on the road to Buffalo 29-14; Jacksonville (+2.5) edged New Orleans 24-20 on the road.

Notes: Liam Coen is 1-2 SU in preseason. Dave Canales and Carolina won the HOF game, but he’s still just 2-5 SU in the preseason. 

QB Rotations: Starters are expected to play for a “couple of drives” for the Jags, including Trevor Lawrence. Carolina is expected to play their starters 10-20 snap inclduing QB Bryce Young. Young went 3 of 5 for 18 yards last week.

Green Bay at Denver (NFL Network), 9pmET

Odds: Denver -6

Total: 41.5

Line Moves: The line opened on Aug 17 at Denver -4.5 and moved to 6 by Aug 19.

Last week: Green Bay (-3) fell at Pittsburgh 28-9; Denver (-3) beat Atlanta 27-7 on the road.

Notes: Sean Payton is 37-33 SU overall in preseason and 6-1 his last 7 in Denver. Matt LaFleur is 9-11 SU overall, but 6-4 SU the last 10 in Green Bay.

QB Rotations: Jordan Love played a little last week and will play at least a series this week against Denver along with the starters. Tyrod Taylor will be the backup again. Denver will play QB Box Nix and the starters some time after not playing last week. But expect Jarrett Stidham and Sam Ehlinger to continue to battle for the backup job.

________________________________________________________________________________________

Upcoming and Current Events at ATS:

  • Week 2 of Preseason Football starts on Thursday! Preseason NFL action begins as ATS enters its 34th football season. Big game coming up this weekend. Some Early Bird discounts are still available!
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Approach to Betting on Week 2 of the NFL Preseason

Posted on by Mat Daily
NFL Football Sitting with-piles-of-dollars on AstroTurf

Week 2 of Preseason starts on Thursday. College Football kicks off on Aug. 29. UFC Wins 5 of the last 6 weeks!

As we approach NFL preseason Week 2, while I wouldn’t call this a “dress rehearsal”, you have more data, more information, reliable depth charts, and coaches who are starting to reveal their plans for starter usage.

The biggest mistake is treating preseason games like regular-season games. The question isn’t “Which team is better?” It’s “Which team is getting more valuable snaps from its best players?”

1. Make QB playing time your No. 1 handicap

This is still the single biggest variable.

For Week 2, we’re already seeing several serious situations:

  • Denver: Bo Nix is expected to play after sitting out Week 1.
  • Jacksonville: Trevor Lawrence could get a couple of drives.
  • Cincinnati: Joe Burrow played 13 snaps in Week 1 and could again have a limited workload.
  • Tampa Bay: Todd Bowles has said his starters, including Baker Mayfield, will play.
  • LA Chargers: Jim Harbaugh said he’d play his starters one series on Thursday against the 49ers. 
  • Cleveland is expected to start QB Shedeur Sanders and he’ll play the entire first half.

And the Jets-Steelers game is particularly interesting because Aaron Glenn is considering playing Geno Smith, who missed Week 1 with a minor injury.

1)Don’t bet a preseason spread until you know the expected QB rotation—or have a very strong reason to anticipate an advantage before the market catches up.

2. Week 2 is a good week to look for “starter vs. backup” mismatches

Because teams are experimenting with different playing-time strategies, you can get situations where:

Team A

  • Starting QB: 2-3 drives
  • Starting OL: 2-3 drives
  • Starting defense: 1-2 series

vs.

Team B

  • Backup QB: entire first half
  • Second-string OL: significant playing time
  • Second-string defense: significant playing time

In that situation, the team with fewer “starters” could actually be the better full-game wager.

That’s why preseason lines can move dramatically when a coach announces his rotation.

3. Don’t overreact to Week 1 results

This is a huge Week 2 trap.

If a team won 34-10 in Week 1, don’t automatically assume it’s a great preseason team.

Instead, ask:

Who produced the points?

A touchdown scored by the first-team offense is much more relevant than three touchdowns against third-string defenders.

Break Week 1 performance into:

  • First-team offense
  • Second-team offense
  • Third-team offense
  • First-team defense
  • Backup defense
  • Turnovers
  • Special teams

Turnovers are especially dangerous to use as a predictive statistic.

4. Look for QB competitions

These are some of my favorite preseason situations.

A QB competition can mean the coaching staff has a reason to give a player more snaps than a normal starter would receive.

Cleveland’s Deshaun Watson started Week 1, while Shedeur Sanders is scheduled to start the Week 2 game against Buffalo and play the first half, with Watson taking the second half.

However, Sanders struggled in the second half and the Browns were crushed by the Bears 34-10.

5. Pay close attention to injuries

Week 2 is where this becomes especially important.

Don’t just look at the injury report. Look at position and depth.

QB → offensive line → pass rush → secondary → skill positions

A backup quarterback losing his starting center and two starting receivers can be much more significant than losing a starting linebacker in a preseason game.

And monitor players who were injured in Week 1. For example, Washington backup QB Marcus Mariota is out for the remainder of the preseason with an MCL sprain, although he’s expected back for Week 1.

6. Joint practices are a major Week 2 angle

This is one of the things to emphasize more in Week 2 than Week 1.

Teams often have joint practices with their preseason opponents. Those practices can tell you:

  • Which starters are getting significant reps
  • Whether the offense is moving the ball
  • Which defensive backs are struggling
  • Whether a QB is comfortable in the system
  • Whether a coach intends to use starters in the game

The preseason schedule is also affected by these practices, and coaches sometimes alter game participation because players already received extensive work during the week.

Week 2 betting checklist

Before putting money on a game, I’d want answers to these 10 questions:

  1. Who is starting at QB?
  2. How many drives is he expected to play?
  3. Who is the No. 2 QB?
  4. How long will the No. 2 play?
  5. Which starting OL are playing?
  6. Which starting defensive players are playing?
  7. Are there important injuries?
  8. Did the teams have joint practices?
  9. What did the first-team units actually do in Week 1?
  10. Has the betting line already adjusted for all of this?

________________________________________________________________________________________

Upcoming and Current Events at ATS:

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How do returning starters in college football impact handicapping?

Posted on by Mat Daily

Week 2 of Preseason starts on Thursday. College Football kicks off on Aug. 29. UFC Wins 5 of the last 6 weeks!

College football returns on August 29 and if you have not read much about the sport, things can look daunting. One of the factors that handicappers have looked at in past years to handicap games is the number of returning starters. With the transfer portal coming into fruition in the last few years due to NIL and the transfer rule that allows players to be eligible right away, does that intangible even matter?

Returning starters are one of the most useful offseason inputs for handicapping college football, but in the transfer-portal era they need to be used differently than they were five or 10 years ago.

For 2026,  returning starters should be used a baseline for continuity, then adjust that number for transfers, returning production/snap counts, coaching changes and the quality of the players returning.

A returning starter is someone who made at least six starts in 2025.

Why returning starters matter to handicappers

1. Quarterback continuity is particularly valuable

If a team brings back its starting QB, that is generally more meaningful than simply returning a large number of starters.

A returning QB potentially gives you:

  • Better command of the offense
  • Better pre-snap recognition
  • More familiarity with the playbook
  • Better chemistry with receivers
  • More experience in the coach’s system
  • Less volatility early in the season

That’s important when you’re handicapping Week 1 through Week 4, when the market can underestimate the value of offensive continuity.

2. Offensive-line continuity can be extremely important

This is one of the areas I would pay the most attention to.

A team returning four or five offensive linemen who started the previous season has a significant continuity advantage over a team breaking in three or four new starters.

It can affect:

  • Sack rate
  • Rushing efficiency
  • Short-yardage success
  • Red-zone offense
  • QB pressure
  • Overall offensive consistency

3. Defensive experience can be especially valuable early

Returning linebackers and defensive backs can help a defense communicate and execute more efficiently.

Pay particular attention to teams returning:

Multiple starting defensive linemen
3+ linebackers
3+ defensive backs

A defense with eight returning starters can be particularly interesting when facing a new QB or inexperienced offensive line.

4. Returning starters can help you identify teams the market may underrate

This is where it becomes particularly useful for betting.

5. Returning starters matter less when the portal has replaced the losses

This is the biggest caveat for 2026.

Indiana won the 2025 national championship despite returning only eight players who had six or more starts. Miami also returned eight. Both programs supplemented their returning core with experienced transfers.

Returning starters + returning snaps + transfer production + QB situation + coaching continuity + recruiting talent

 TotalOD
USC1596
Georgia1468
Maryland1468
New Mexico1486
Notre Dame1468
Oklahoma1486
Oregon1468
Virginia Tech1486
Boise State1376
BYU1358
Fresno State1367
Tennessee1385
Texas Tech1376
Delaware1276
Houston1276
Nebraska1266
Stanford1257
Texas1266
Air Force1138
Army1183
Florida Atlantic1156
Minnesota1165
Navy1156
Ohio State1183
Pittsburgh1165
SMU1174
Texas State1174
Western Michigan1174
Arkansas State1073
Indiana1046
Liberty1064
Miami (FL)1037
Michigan1073
Ole Miss1055
Oregon State1055
San Diego State1073
South Carolina1055
UCF1046
Vanderbilt1055
Wake Forest1028
Washington1073
Akron963
California963
Eastern Michigan954
Florida945
Jacksonville State945
Kansas State963
Kent State972
Louisiana972
Marshall963
Miami (OH)954
New Mexico State936
Northwestern945
Temple972
Texas A&M945
Tulsa936
Utah State945
Arizona853
Central Michigan862
Clemson853
Duke844
Louisville844
LSU853
NC State853
North Dakota State835
Rutgers844
TCU835
UTSA862
Virginia835
Alabama734
Ball State752
Charlotte734
Georgia Tech725
Hawaii743
Illinois743
Louisiana Tech752
Mississippi State725
Missouri761
Missouri State743
Purdue734
Syracuse725
Troy761
Arkansas642
Buffalo624
Florida State624
Iowa633
Kansas624
Kennesaw State624
Nevada642
Ohio615
UCLA633
UMass624
UNLV633
Western Kentucky633
Wyoming642
App State523
Baylor514
Boston College514
Cincinnati532
Coastal Carolina514
Colorado541
FIU523
Georgia State532
Kentucky514
Louisiana-Monroe532
Michigan State523
North Carolina523
Old Dominion514
Rice532
Sam Houston532
South Alabama523
Tulane523
Utah523
Washington State550
Colorado State413
Middle Tennessee413
Northern Illinois440
Penn State422
Sacramento State413
UTEP404
Wisconsin431
Arizona State312
Auburn312
Bowling Green321
East Carolina312
Georgia Southern303
James Madison312
Oklahoma State312
UAB321
South Florida321
West Virginia330
San Jose State220
Memphis110
Southern Miss110
Toledo110
UConn1  

(from CBS Sports)

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Upcoming and Current Events at ATS:

  • Week 2 of Preseason Football starts on Thursday! Preseason NFL action begins as ATS enters its 34th football season. Big game coming up this weekend. Some Early Bird discounts are still available!
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How do key injuries impact betting on the NFL Preseason?

Posted on by Mat Daily

Week 2 of Preseason starts on Thursday. College Football kicks off on Aug. 29. UFC Wins has won 5 of 6 weeks!

Week 1 of the NFL preseason is over and there are several key injuries. This is why so many teams avoid playing their starters in the preseason. Thus far, we have Buffalo WR D.J. Moore (ankle). That particular injury should not affect his regular season status.

You also have Arizona rookie phenom RB Jermiyah Love (high ankle sprain), which means he might miss Game 1. Fortunately, the Cardinals have James Connor and Tyler Allgeier. 

Washington might be looking for another backup quarterback with Marcus Mariota (MCL) out. With Mariota out the rest of preseason, Sam Hatman will take the reigns though HC Dan Quinn hasn’t mentioned whether starting QB Jayden Daniels will play in preseason. Expect the Commanders to pick up another body if Mariota is going to miss extensive time. Rookie Athan Kaliakmanis will likely play at least the second half in the last two games.

There are other key injuries, but when it comes to the preseason, the focus should be on the starting quarterback and the quarterback rotations. 

In preseason, you’re usually betting on the backup QB

The Mariota injury is a perfect example of knowing the rotation, although Washington managed to beat Miami 20-7, despite Mariota throwing just two passes before he was injured.

*If a team is missing multiple offensive linemen, especially backups, the quarterback and running backs could be less effective. 

Focus on these key factors:

  • Who is actually playing?
  • Which QB will get the most snaps?
  • Which defensive starters are sitting?
  • Are injuries forcing players to play extended minutes?
  • Does the team have adequate depth?

The bottom line is that injuries should be viewed primarily through depth, rotations and expected playing time.

Also, while injuries can impact your betting, don’t bet the injury. Bet the difference between the injury’s true impact and the impact already reflected in the betting odds. 

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Preseason Week 1 Standout Performances

  • LA Rams rookie QB Ty Simpson completed 21 of 25 for 190 yards and two TDs in a 20-12 win over Kansas City.
  • Pittsburgh rookie QB Drew Allar went 10 of 13 for 153 yards with two passing TDs and a rushing score in a 28-9 win over Green Bay.
  • RB Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) rushed for 58 yards and had three catches, but also suffered a high ankle sprain. ‘
  • Tua Tagovailoa went 3 of 22 for 22 yards, including one fumble. 
  • Deshaun Watson outplayed Shedeur Sanders in Cleveland’s QB competition. Sanders had a pick and a lost fumble. 
  • Rookie Fernando Mendoza struggled early but went 10 of 16 for 97 yards and a TD. Arizona QBs went 26 of 30 despite not playing without rookie QB Carson Beck. 

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Upcoming and Current Events at ATS:

  • Week 2 of Preseason Football starts on Thursday! Preseason NFL action begins as ATS enters its 34th football season. Early Bird discounts are still available!
  • UFC has won 5 of the last 6 weeks. Discounts are available.
    __________________________________________________________________

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