The national championship game goes at 8:50pmET from Indiana, featuring No. 1 seed Michigan vs. No. 2 seed UConn from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The game will be broadcast on TBS/tru/HBO Max.
UConn (34-5, 17-22 ATS, 18-21 O/U) vs. Michigan (36-3, 19-20 ATS, 17-22 O/U)
Odds: (from DK). Michigan -6.5. Total: 144.5. Money line: Michigan -298; UConn +240.
Prop Bets: Final Four Most Outstanding Player Best Bet: Aday Mara (Michigan) +220. Longshot: Silas Demary Jr. +800
We’re finally here at the end of the college basketball season and another strong NCAA Tournament. The Final Four was not special after some great games in the Elite Eight. UConn handled Illinois by nine as a 1.5-point dog, while Michigan dominated No. 1 Arizona 91-73 as a 1.5-point underdog. UConn is going for its seventh NCAA title and third for Danny Hurley/. Michigan is looking at its second and the first for Dusty May. The Wolverines are 1-6 in the national title games.
UConn (9th KenPom, 27th in Adjusted Offense, 9th in Adjusted Defense, 319th in Adjusted Tempo). UConn beat No. 3 Illinois in the semifinal and dominated the game as a slight underdog. Tarris Reed Jr. dominated a big Illini frontcourt with 17 points and 11 rebounds, while Braylon Mullins, the hero in the Elite Eight, added 15 points on four 3-pointers. But it was the UConn defense that was the most impressive, holding a very good Illini offense (ranked first on KenPom) to just 34% shooting from the field and 23% from beyond the arc. They were outrebounded by nine. The Huskies arrived in Indianapolis by beating Furman by 11, UCLA by 16, No. 3 Michigan State by four, and No. 1 Duke 73-72 in one of the most incredible finishes in the history of the NCAA Tournament. Mullins nailed a 35-pointer with 0.4 seconds left to lead the Huskies to the come-from-behind win. UConn did not play well, shooting just 5 of 23 from beyond the arc (22%), and Mullins was 0-for-5 from 3-point range before he made that big shot. But Tarris Reed Jr. was phenomenal against Duke, dominating the paint with 26 points, nine rebounds, and four blocks. Alex Karaban, who went 2 for 10 against the Blue Devils, is having a great tournament, averaging 17.8 points on 39% shooting from 3-point range despite that poor shooting performance. But with the size of the Illini, they will need players like Silas Demary Jr. (39% 3pt), Karaban (38% 3pt in the regular season), and Mullins (33.7% 3pt reg season) to step up from the perimeter.
Strengths: Dan Hurley is one of the best coaches in the nation—very balanced scoring. Defense is elite, and they shoot 48.1% from the field. Reed can compete against any big man and is stronger than Mara. Just beat one very good Big 10 team. Weakness: Three-point shooting is mediocre for an elite team (35.2%, overall). Offense can be susceptible to droughts.
Michigan (1st KenPom, 4th Adjusted Offense, 1st Adjusted Defense, 22nd in Adjusted Tempo) blew the doors off of Arizona on Saturday night. That was despite losing star Yaxel Lendeborg for most of the game due to an MCL strain. He played just 15 minutes, scoring 11 points, while 7-3 center Aday Mara led the way with 26 points and nine rebounds. Lendeborg returned after going back to the locker room multiple times, despite (reportedly) the urges of family members to sit out. The Wolverines managed to shoot 44% (12 of 27) from 3-point range and went +12 in the rebounding margin against a top-five rebounding squad.
Michigan arrived at the Final Four after destroying No. 6 Tennessee 95-62, No. 4 Alabama (90-77), Saint Louis (75-72), and Howard (101-80). They were defeated by Purdue in the Big 10 title game 80-72 as a 4.5-point favorite.
The Wolverines have a very talented squad, led by Lendeborg, who had 27 points and seven rebounds last Sunday against Tennessee. He is one of the best all-around players in the nation, averaging 15.1 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks, while shooting 52.3% from the field and 38.3% from beyond the arc. Mara (12.2ppg, 2.6bpg, 6.8rpg) has plenty of perimeter help led by UNC transfer Elliott Cadeau at the point, averaging 10.3 points and 5.9 assists, while shooting 37% from three-point range.
Michigan also has several players who might be taken in the first round of the NBA, along with Mara, Lendeborg and Morez Johnson (6-9, 250), who averages 13.1 points and 7.3 rebounds, while shooting 62.1% from the field. In terms of guards. Lendeborg is expected to play on Monday
Strengths: Size. They are eighth in rebound rate. Number one in the nation in field goal defense (38.4%). Weaknesses: Not many. Guards are good, but they don’t have an explosive scorer. They are 288th in defensive turnover rate.
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