Can Hedging be Beneficial when Betting on Football?
Hedging involves placing a bet on the opposite side of your initial bet. This is usually done once the odds of your original bet hitting have increased. For example, if you wager on the Eagles to win the Super Bowl at +650. Philly advances to the NFC Championship Game.
Their odds have now dropped to +175. You can now place wagers on the three teams remaining to guarantee you can make some money, though it does come at a potential hit if Philadelphia
were to hit and win the Super Bowl, your other bets would be losers, cutting into the return.
Hedging can be beneficial in football if…
1)You have a large potential payout. If you placed an early bet at attractive odds and the situation has changed in your favor, hedging can lock in a guaranteed profit or reduce the chance of walking away with nothing.
2)The odds have moved significantly. For example, you bet a team at 6.00 (5/1) to win a tournament, and before the final they’re priced at 2.00 (1/1). Betting the other side can secure a profit regardless of the outcome.
3)Your priorities are risk management. If preserving your bankroll is more important than maximizing profit, hedging can help smooth out variance.
When hedging is less advantageous:
1)The bookmaker’s margin (“vig”) works against you. Every additional bet usually incurs another margin, so frequent hedging can lower your long-term expected return.
2)Don’t hedge out of emotion. Many bettors hedge because they’re nervous, even when the original bet still has positive expected value.
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