How do key injuries impact betting on the NFL Preseason?

Week 1 of the NFL preseason is over and there are several key injuries. This is why so many teams avoid playing their starters in the preseason. Thus far, we have Buffalo WR D.J. Moore (ankle). That particular injury should not affect his regular season status.

You also have Arizona rookie phenom RB Jermiyah Love (high ankle sprain), which means he might miss Game 1. Fortunately, the Cardinals have James Connor and Tyler Allgeier. 

Washington might be looking for another backup quarterback with Marcus Mariota (MCL) out. With Mariota out the rest of preseason, Sam Hatman will take the reigns though HC Dan Quinn hasn’t mentioned whether starting QB Jayden Daniels will play in preseason. Expect the Commanders to pick up another body if Mariota is going to miss extensive time. Rookie Athan Kaliakmanis will likely play at least the second half in the last two games.

There are other key injuries, but when it comes to the preseason, the focus should be on the starting quarterback and the quarterback rotations. 

In preseason, you’re usually betting on the backup QB

The Mariota injury is a perfect example of knowing the rotation, although Washington managed to beat Miami 20-7, despite Mariota throwing just two passes before he was injured.

*If a team is missing multiple offensive linemen, especially backups, the quarterback and running backs could be less effective. 

Focus on these key factors:

  • Who is actually playing?
  • Which QB will get the most snaps?
  • Which defensive starters are sitting?
  • Are injuries forcing players to play extended minutes?
  • Does the team have adequate depth?

The bottom line is that injuries should be viewed primarily through depth, rotations and expected playing time.

Also, while injuries can impact your betting, don’t bet the injury. Bet the difference between the injury’s true impact and the impact already reflected in the betting odds. 

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Preseason Week 1 Standout Performances

  • LA Rams rookie QB Ty Simpson completed 21 of 25 for 190 yards and two TDs in a 20-12 win over Kansas City.
  • Pittsburgh rookie QB Drew Allar went 10 of 13 for 153 yards with two passing TDs and a rushing score in a 28-9 win over Green Bay.
  • RB Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) rushed for 58 yards and had three catches, but also suffered a high ankle sprain. ‘
  • Tua Tagovailoa went 3 of 22 for 22 yards, including one fumble. 
  • Deshaun Watson outplayed Shedeur Sanders in Cleveland’s QB competition. Sanders had a pick and a lost fumble. 
  • Rookie Fernando Mendoza struggled early but went 10 of 16 for 97 yards and a TD. Arizona QBs went 26 of 30 despite not playing without rookie QB Carson Beck. 

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