College football returns on August 29 and if you have not read much about the sport, things can look daunting. One of the factors that handicappers have looked at in past years to handicap games is the number of returning starters. With the transfer portal coming into fruition in the last few years due to NIL and the transfer rule that allows players to be eligible right away, does that intangible even matter?
Returning starters are one of the most useful offseason inputs for handicapping college football, but in the transfer-portal era they need to be used differently than they were five or 10 years ago.
For 2026, returning starters should be used a baseline for continuity, then adjust that number for transfers, returning production/snap counts, coaching changes and the quality of the players returning.
A returning starter is someone who made at least six starts in 2025.
Why returning starters matter to handicappers
1. Quarterback continuity is particularly valuable
If a team brings back its starting QB, that is generally more meaningful than simply returning a large number of starters.
A returning QB potentially gives you:
- Better command of the offense
- Better pre-snap recognition
- More familiarity with the playbook
- Better chemistry with receivers
- More experience in the coach’s system
- Less volatility early in the season
That’s important when you’re handicapping Week 1 through Week 4, when the market can underestimate the value of offensive continuity.
2. Offensive-line continuity can be extremely important
This is one of the areas I would pay the most attention to.
A team returning four or five offensive linemen who started the previous season has a significant continuity advantage over a team breaking in three or four new starters.
It can affect:
- Sack rate
- Rushing efficiency
- Short-yardage success
- Red-zone offense
- QB pressure
- Overall offensive consistency
3. Defensive experience can be especially valuable early
Returning linebackers and defensive backs can help a defense communicate and execute more efficiently.
Pay particular attention to teams returning:
Multiple starting defensive linemen
3+ linebackers
3+ defensive backs
A defense with eight returning starters can be particularly interesting when facing a new QB or inexperienced offensive line.
4. Returning starters can help you identify teams the market may underrate
This is where it becomes particularly useful for betting.
5. Returning starters matter less when the portal has replaced the losses
This is the biggest caveat for 2026.
Indiana won the 2025 national championship despite returning only eight players who had six or more starts. Miami also returned eight. Both programs supplemented their returning core with experienced transfers.
Returning starters + returning snaps + transfer production + QB situation + coaching continuity + recruiting talent
| Total | O | D | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USC | 15 | 9 | 6 |
| Georgia | 14 | 6 | 8 |
| Maryland | 14 | 6 | 8 |
| New Mexico | 14 | 8 | 6 |
| Notre Dame | 14 | 6 | 8 |
| Oklahoma | 14 | 8 | 6 |
| Oregon | 14 | 6 | 8 |
| Virginia Tech | 14 | 8 | 6 |
| Boise State | 13 | 7 | 6 |
| BYU | 13 | 5 | 8 |
| Fresno State | 13 | 6 | 7 |
| Tennessee | 13 | 8 | 5 |
| Texas Tech | 13 | 7 | 6 |
| Delaware | 12 | 7 | 6 |
| Houston | 12 | 7 | 6 |
| Nebraska | 12 | 6 | 6 |
| Stanford | 12 | 5 | 7 |
| Texas | 12 | 6 | 6 |
| Air Force | 11 | 3 | 8 |
| Army | 11 | 8 | 3 |
| Florida Atlantic | 11 | 5 | 6 |
| Minnesota | 11 | 6 | 5 |
| Navy | 11 | 5 | 6 |
| Ohio State | 11 | 8 | 3 |
| Pittsburgh | 11 | 6 | 5 |
| SMU | 11 | 7 | 4 |
| Texas State | 11 | 7 | 4 |
| Western Michigan | 11 | 7 | 4 |
| Arkansas State | 10 | 7 | 3 |
| Indiana | 10 | 4 | 6 |
| Liberty | 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Miami (FL) | 10 | 3 | 7 |
| Michigan | 10 | 7 | 3 |
| Ole Miss | 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Oregon State | 10 | 5 | 5 |
| San Diego State | 10 | 7 | 3 |
| South Carolina | 10 | 5 | 5 |
| UCF | 10 | 4 | 6 |
| Vanderbilt | 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Wake Forest | 10 | 2 | 8 |
| Washington | 10 | 7 | 3 |
| Akron | 9 | 6 | 3 |
| California | 9 | 6 | 3 |
| Eastern Michigan | 9 | 5 | 4 |
| Florida | 9 | 4 | 5 |
| Jacksonville State | 9 | 4 | 5 |
| Kansas State | 9 | 6 | 3 |
| Kent State | 9 | 7 | 2 |
| Louisiana | 9 | 7 | 2 |
| Marshall | 9 | 6 | 3 |
| Miami (OH) | 9 | 5 | 4 |
| New Mexico State | 9 | 3 | 6 |
| Northwestern | 9 | 4 | 5 |
| Temple | 9 | 7 | 2 |
| Texas A&M | 9 | 4 | 5 |
| Tulsa | 9 | 3 | 6 |
| Utah State | 9 | 4 | 5 |
| Arizona | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| Central Michigan | 8 | 6 | 2 |
| Clemson | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| Duke | 8 | 4 | 4 |
| Louisville | 8 | 4 | 4 |
| LSU | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| NC State | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| North Dakota State | 8 | 3 | 5 |
| Rutgers | 8 | 4 | 4 |
| TCU | 8 | 3 | 5 |
| UTSA | 8 | 6 | 2 |
| Virginia | 8 | 3 | 5 |
| Alabama | 7 | 3 | 4 |
| Ball State | 7 | 5 | 2 |
| Charlotte | 7 | 3 | 4 |
| Georgia Tech | 7 | 2 | 5 |
| Hawaii | 7 | 4 | 3 |
| Illinois | 7 | 4 | 3 |
| Louisiana Tech | 7 | 5 | 2 |
| Mississippi State | 7 | 2 | 5 |
| Missouri | 7 | 6 | 1 |
| Missouri State | 7 | 4 | 3 |
| Purdue | 7 | 3 | 4 |
| Syracuse | 7 | 2 | 5 |
| Troy | 7 | 6 | 1 |
| Arkansas | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| Buffalo | 6 | 2 | 4 |
| Florida State | 6 | 2 | 4 |
| Iowa | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Kansas | 6 | 2 | 4 |
| Kennesaw State | 6 | 2 | 4 |
| Nevada | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| Ohio | 6 | 1 | 5 |
| UCLA | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| UMass | 6 | 2 | 4 |
| UNLV | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Western Kentucky | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Wyoming | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| App State | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Baylor | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| Boston College | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| Cincinnati | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Coastal Carolina | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| Colorado | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| FIU | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Georgia State | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Kentucky | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| Louisiana-Monroe | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Michigan State | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| North Carolina | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Old Dominion | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| Rice | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Sam Houston | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| South Alabama | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Tulane | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Utah | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Washington State | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Colorado State | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| Middle Tennessee | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| Northern Illinois | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Penn State | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Sacramento State | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| UTEP | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Wisconsin | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Arizona State | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Auburn | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Bowling Green | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| East Carolina | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Georgia Southern | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| James Madison | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Oklahoma State | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| UAB | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| South Florida | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| West Virginia | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| San Jose State | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Memphis | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Southern Miss | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Toledo | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| UConn | 1 |
(from CBS Sports)
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