Betting Preview for Week 1 of College Football

There is a full slate of FBS games from Friday through Monday. Happy Labor Day Weekend! Current lines are subject to movement.

FRIDAY

San Jose State at Eastern Michigan — 6:30 ET

Line: Eastern Michigan -3 | Total: 56. Open: 3/53.5.

This is one of the more interesting Friday MAC/Mountain West crossover games. Eastern Michigan gets home field, but San Jose State has the more intriguing defensive challenge after coming off a 2025 season that produced enough competitiveness to make this a dangerous number. The key handicap is whether EMU can establish the run and avoid giving SJSU short fields.

UTEP at #10 Oklahoma — 8:00 ET

Line: Oklahoma -41.5, Total: 51.5. Open: -40.5/50.5

Oklahoma enters ranked No. 10 and this is a classic talent-vs.-number matchup. UTEP is catching more than six touchdowns, so the Sooners need a dominant performance to reward favorite bettors. Oklahoma’s defensive talent is legit, but their offense struggled last season, averaging just 354.3ypg. QB John Mateer is back after suffering a broken hand earlier in the year in 2025.

Toledo at Michigan State — 8:00 ET

Line: Michigan State -10 | Total: 47. Open: -10.5/49.5

Toledo is capable of playing physically and Michigan State is laying double digits. Michigan State’s new regime makes this a particularly important early test. Former Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald takes over. Mike Jacobs takes over a Toledo program that has won at least eight games in a season in four straight seasons.

#7 Miami at Stanford — 9:00 ET

Line: Miami -23.5 | Total: 48. Open: -21.5/49.5

Miami is one of the highest-profile Friday favorites. The challenge is the cross-country trip to Stanford in this ACC matchup and the unusual early-season scheduling environment. Miami has substantially more talent. Last year, Miami crushed Stanford 42-7 at home, giving 29.5. Duke transfer Darian Mensah takes over at QB and has a special WR in Malachi Toney. 

Fresno State at #14 USC — 9:00 ET

Line: USC -21.5 | Total: 52. Open: USC -23.5/51.5.

USC is coming off its Week 0 game against San Jose State giving the Trojans a short turnaround. They won the game 42-26 but did not cover the 37.5. Fresno State gets a potentially significant preparation advantage while USC has to deal with its second game in a short window. 


 SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 5

There are 50+ FBS games Saturday, so I’ll separate the marquee games from the deeper-card games.

Coastal Carolina at West Virginia — 12:00 ET

West Virginia -21.5 | Total 56.5. Open: 17.5/58.5.

West Virginia has the home-field and Power Four talent advantages, but Coastal has enough offensive ability to make 21.5 uncomfortable. Can the Chants overcome the tough Morgantown atmosphere?

East Carolina at #13 Alabama — 12:00 ET

Alabama -28.5 | Total 54.5. Open: -28.5/55.5.

Alabama went 11-4 last season and reaches 2026 ranked No. 13, but replaces first-round QB Ty Simpson with sophomore Keelon Russell. East Carolina went 9-4 and brings transfer QB Mitch Griffis into an offense with substantial portal additions.

Liberty at James Madison — 12:00 ET

James Madison -6.5 | Total 50. Open: -6/52.5.

One of the better Group-of-5 games on the board. Liberty gets points despite having enough offensive talent to make this competitive. JMU’s home field is important. They are usually one of the top mid-majors in the nation. But they’ ve lost another coach. This time, it was Bob Chesney to UCLA.

North Texas at #6 Indiana — 12:00 ET

Indiana -39.5 | Total 55.5. Open: 40.5/54.5.

Indiana is defending a 16-0 national championship season and replaces Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza with TCU transfer Josh Hoover. North Texas went 12-2 in 2025, its best season ever, but lost coach Eric Morris and now has Neal Brown running the program.

Ohio at Nebraska — 12:00 ET

Nebraska -23.5 | Total 46. Open: -23.5/45.5.

Nebraska is coming off a 7-6 season, which doesn’t sound like much, but before Matt Rhule took over. The Huskers had not finished above .500 since 2026. UNLV transfer Anthony Colandrea will take over at QB for Dylan Raiola. John Hauser takes over Ohio, which went 9-4 last season. 

Trend: Nebraska is 4-0 ATS in its last four against MAC opponents and the Over is 5-1 in Nebraska’s last six as a favorite.

Oregon State at #23 Houston — 12:00 ET

Houston -20.5 | Total 49.5. Open: -18.5/51.5. 

Houston is coming off a 10-3 season and returns QB Conner Weigman, who threw for 2,705 yards and 25 TDs while rushing for another 700 yards and 11 TDs. Oregon State went just 2-10 last year and has a new coach and new QB.

Trend: Under is 12-2 in Oregon State’s last 14 road games, while Houston has seen the Over hit in six straight games as a favorite.

Miami (Ohio) at Pitt — 12:30 ET

Pitt -16.5 | Total 47.5. Open: -16.5/50.5. 

Pitt has more ACC-level talent, but Miami (Ohio) has been one of the more competitive MAC programs. Mason Heintschel will take over at QB for Pitt, who went 5-0 as a starter in his first five games, before going 6-3. Miami will turn to Kansas transfer David McComb at QB, who will be making his first collegiate start because expected starter Thomas Gotkowski suffered a season-ending injury.

Ball State at #1 Ohio State — 12:30 ET

Ohio State -50.5 | Total 56.5. Open: -49.5/56.5.

The biggest spread on the board. Ohio State is No. 1 and has an enormous talent edge, but asking a team to cover 50.5 is another matter.

Trend: Ohio State is 14-4 ATS over its last 18 games, while the Under is 12-3-1 in Ball State’s last 16 against Big Ten opponents.

Kent State at South Carolina — 12:45 ET

South Carolina -36.5 | Total 52.5. Open: -33.5/52.5.  

South Carolina has too much athleticism for Kent State, but the Gamecocks need to create separation quickly. SC went 4-8 last season, but they return La Norris Sellers at QB. He’s a dynamic dual-threat player. Kent State went 5-7 last season and will return with Dru DeShields at QB.

Baylor at Auburn — 3:30 ET

Auburn -7.5 | Total 58.5. Open: -6.5/58.5.

Both teams underachieved last season, going 5-7. Auburn hired Alex Golesh and has significant roster turnover, while Baylor retains Dave Aranda and brings in former Florida starter DJ Lagway.

Auburn returns only four starters but has 35 players with starting experience; Baylor returns five starters and has 33 players with starting experience.

Boise State at #2 Oregon — 3:30 ET

Oregon -24.5 | Total 51.5. Open: -24.5/53.5.

Oregon went 13-2 SU and 9-6 ATS last season; Boise State went 9-5 SU and 8-6 ATS. Oregon returns 11 starters and Boise returns 12, including QBs Dante Moore and Maddux Madsen.

Trend: Boise is 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Oregon, while the Under is 5-0 in Boise’s last five road games.

Boston College at Cincinnati — 3:30 ET

Cincinnati -7.5 | Total 51.5. Open: -9.5/53.5.

Cincinnati went 7-6 and returns 26 players with starting experience despite only five returning starters. Boston College went 2-10 but returns seven starters and 29 players with starting experience.  

Marshall at #18 Penn State — 3:30 ET

Penn State -24.5 | Total 54.5. Open: -24/52.

Penn State should have a substantial talent advantage, but Marshall is exactly the type of experienced underdog I want to investigate before laying nearly four touchdowns. New PSU coach Matt Campbell moves from Iowa State to Happy Valley to take over for James Franklin. He brings with him Rocco Becht, who threw 64 TD passes in three seasons for the Cyclones. Marshall is usually no pushover. Sun Belt preseason Offensive Player of the Year Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is back to lead a team that went 5-7 last season, which was Marshall’s worst record since 2016.

Trend: Marshall is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog.

Texas State at #5 Texas — 3:30 ET

Texas -29.5 | Total 59.5. Open: -30.5/60.5.

Texas returns 11 starters, including Arch Manning, while Texas State brings back eight starters from a 7-6 team and returns QB Brad Jackson plus two 1,000-yard receivers.

Trend: Texas is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home favorite; the Over is 4-0 in its last four as a favorite.

Tulane at Duke — 3:30 ET

Duke -7.5 | Total 51.5. Open: Duke -8.5/53.5.

Excellent matchup. Duke went 9-5 and won the ACC, but lost QB Darian Mensah to Miami. Tulane went 11-3 and reached the CFP, but lost coach Jon Sumrall, its QB and top receiver.

Trend: Over is 7-2 in Duke’s last nine at home and 4-1 in its last five as a favorite.

Oklahoma State at Tulsa — 3:45 ET

Oklahoma State -13.5 | Total 59.5. Open: -11.5/60.5.

This is a sneaky interesting in-state matchup. Tulsa catching 13.5 has value potential because rivalry familiarity can reduce the talent gap. Eric Morris takes over to try and rebuild the program in Stillwater. The former North Texas coach had the No. 1 offense in college football last season, averaging 512.4 ypg. Tulsa brings back Baylor Hayes under center and helped them beat Oklahoma State last season.

Northern Illinois at #22 Iowa — 4:15 ET

Iowa -31.5 | Total 46.5. Open: -29.5/43.5.

Iowa still has competition between Jeremy Hecklinski and Hank Brown at QB. No. Illinois also has an unsettled situation at quarterback, with Western Carolina transfer Taron Dickens expected to get the call, but nothing official has been announced.

Wyoming at Colorado State — 6:00 ET

Colorado State -3.5 | Total 46. Open: -4/47.5.

The Border War features new coach Jim Mora, who comes over from UConn, where he resurrected the program. Jay Sawyvel is back for this season at Wyoming and has a 7-17 record.

Arkansas State at Memphis — 7:00 ET

Memphis -9.5 | Total 52. Open: -10.5/55.5.

A much better betting matchup. Arkansas State is capable of keeping this close. Memphis won their first game on the road over UNLV 27-21 in Week 0. Ark State has gone to three straight bowl games led by coach Butch Jones.

FIU at South Florida — 7:00 ET

USF -13.5 | Total 54.5. Open:  -2.5/54.5.

Interesting intra-state matchup as USF brings new coach Brian Hartline to lead the Bulls. They’ll take on an FIU team with a 6-7, 250-pound transfer QB in JJ Kohl, who threw for 1,465 yards in 2025. FIU went 7-6 in 2025 and is led by head coach Willie Simmons, who’s offense averaged 397 yards per game in 2025.

Missouri State at #8 Texas A&M — 7:00 ET

Texas A&M -41.5 | Total 53.5. Open: -38.5/52.5.

Texas A&M returns QB Marcel Reed, who produced 3,169 passing yards, 493 rushing yards and 31 total TDs last season. Missouri State enters its second FBS season with a new coach and QB.

Sam Houston at Troy — 7:00 ET

Troy -16.5 | Total 53.5. Open: -18/51.

Good Group-of-5 matchup. Troy went 9-5 ATS last season. Sam Houston will go with Landyn Locke, a 6-4 sophomore at quarterback. Goose Crowder is back as the starting QB for Troy. 

Clemson at #11 LSU — 7:30 ET

LSU -10.5 | Total 51.5. Open: LSU -11/50.5.

LSU is debuting new head coach Lane Kiffin and transfer QB Sam Leavitt. Clemson’s Christopher Vizzina becomes the full-time starter after three seasons in the program. Both teams finished 7-6 last year.

LSU won last year’s opener 17-10 at Clemson. Kiffin also might be playing several players who were in NFL camps this summer.

Betting trend: Under is 5-1 in LSU’s last six as a home favorite and 4-1 in Clemson’s last five road games.

ULM at Mississippi State — 7:30 ET

Mississippi State -28.5 | Total 55. Open: -29.5/55.5

Mississippi State finished 5-8 last season and faces a ULM team that is trying to bounce back from a 3-9 season. Kamario Taylor starts at QB for the Bulldogs, who went 0-2 last season. ULM brings back a more experienced QB in Aidan Aremnta, who threw for 1,629 yards and 12 TDs last season.

Western Michigan at #16 Michigan — 7:30 ET

Michigan -27.5 | Total 48.5. Open: -26.5/47.5.

Michigan’s new head coach Kyle Whittingham gets his debut, while sophomore QB Bryce Underwood takes over a major offense. Western Michigan went 10-4 last season and returns MAC Player of the Year Broc Lowry plus RB Jalen Buckley.

Trend: Under is 4-0 in Michigan’s last four at home; the home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Florida Atlantic at Florida — 7:45 ET

Florida -26.5 | Total 59.5. Open: -25.5/58.5.

Florida brings in another new coach in Jon Sumrall, who takes over for Billy Napier (now at JMU). Sumrall was at Tulane when his squad beat FAU 35-24 last season on Nov. 15. GT transfer Aaron Philo will be the Gators’ new starting QB, and the team finished 93rd in passing yards per game in 2025. FAU led the nation with 340.2 passing yards per game and returns QB Caden Veltkamp.

Trend: FAU is 6-1 ATS in its last seven against SEC opponents, while Under is 5-1 in Florida’s last six as a home favorite.

UNLV at Hawaii — 10:00 ET

UNLV -3.5 | Total 58.5. Open: UNLV -1.5/58.5. 

Both teams played in Week 0 and both lost. Last year, UNLV crushed Hawaii at home 38-10, but it’s never easy to win at Hawaii. 

Trend: Hawaii is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 overall, while the home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.

Central Michigan at New Mexico — 10:00 ET

New Mexico -10.5 | Total 47.5. Open: -12.5/49.5.

Central Michigan could play two quarterbacks in Jadyn Glasser and Angle Flores. New Mexico starter Jack Layne (elbow) is out with an injury, so the Lobos are expected to use multiple quarterbacks. 

UCLA at California — 10:30 ET

UCLA -1.5 | Total 53.5. Open: Cal -1.5/54.5.

 UCLA went 3-9 last season and hired former James Madison coach Bob Chesney; Cal went 7-6 and hired first-time head coach Tosh Lupoi.

Trend: The Under is 6-1 in UCLA’s last seven as a road favorite, while the underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. 

Western Kentucky at Nevada — 10:30 ET

WKU -1 | Total 52.5. Open: WKU -4/53.5

Rodney Tisdale Jr. is expected to go for WKU after a solid freshman season. Carter Jones started strong and faded late at QB for Nevada. Both are dual-threat QBs and will need to rely on the running game.


SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 6

Washington State at #17 Washington — 4:00 ET

Washington -23.5 | Total 51.5. Open: -21.5/50.5.

The Apple Cup returns with Washington hosting. Washington went 9-4 last year and returns 11 starters, including QB Demond Williams Jr. Washington State changed coaches and has an extraordinary 77% of its roster either freshmen or transfer-portal players.

Trend: Washington State is 6-0 ATS in its last six as an underdog, while Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last five as a home favorite. 

#24 Louisville at #9 Ole Miss — 7:30 ET

Ole Miss -7 | Total 55.5. Open: -7.5/55.5.

The only ranked-vs.-ranked matchup of Week 1. Ole Miss returns QB Trinidad Chambliss, who threw for 3,937 yards, 22 TDs and only three interceptions last season. Louisville brings back RB Isaac Brown, who averaged a remarkable 8.8 yards per carry in 2025. Peter Golden takes over at Ole Miss for Lane Kiffin, who fled to LSU. The Rebels bring back QB Trinidad Chambliss, who threw for nearly 4,000 yards and 22 TDs thanks to a ruling from a Mississippi district judge. Louisville will add another QB transfer in Lincoln Kienholz, a backup at Ohio State.

Trend: Ole Miss is 5-1 ATS in its last six against ACC opponents; the Over is 4-0 in its last four neutral-site games. 

Wisconsin at #4 Notre Dame — 7:30 ET

Notre Dame -20.5 | Total 47.5. Open: -19.5/46.5.

Notre Dame went 10-2 last year after starting 0-2 and returns QB C.J. Carr, who threw for 2,741 yards and 24 TDs with six interceptions. Wisconsin went just 4-8. New Wisconsin coach Luke Fickell takes over after going 57-18 in six seasons at Cincinnati. Colton Joseph, a dual-threat transfer from ODU, takes over at QB.

Trends: Wisconsin is 4-0 ATS in its last four as an underdog, and the Under is 7-0 in Wisconsin’s last seven as an underdog.


MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 7

#19 SMU at Florida State — 7:30 ET

SMU -3 | Total 53.5. Open: SMU -2.5/52.5. 

The Labor Day finale is an intriguing ACC matchup. SMU went 9-4 last year and has won at least nine games in three consecutive seasons. Florida State went 5-7 last year and already has a Week 0 game under its belt—a 34-17 victory over New Mexico State in which it failed to cover as a 31.5-point favorite.

Florida State has also lost five of its last six against ranked opponents. SMU beat FSU 42-16 in 2024. SMU QB Kevin Jennings enters his third year with 7,709 passing yards and 65 combined TDs. FSU was up 17-10 in the third quarter against NM State in their opener before pulling away.

 

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Upcoming and Current Events at ATS:

  • ATS Football set for another huge season! College Football starts on Thursday in Week 1! NFL kicks off next Wednesday, September 9!
  • UFC has won 6 of the last 8 weeks. Discounts are available.
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Betting Approach to Week 1 of the NFL

Football Player with a Blue Uniform Catching a Ball in a Stadium

Week 1 is one of the most dangerous—and potentially exploitable. The best approach is to be selective rather than aggressive. The 2026 Week 1 board has 16 games, and many spreads are relatively short, which makes price discipline especially important.

Best approach to NFL Week 1 betting

1. Don’t overreact to last season. Personnel, coordinators, schemes, offensive lines and defensive rotations can change dramatically. Downgrade 2025 ATS records compared with current roster strength, coaching changes and matchup advantages.

2. Make your own number before looking at the spread. Build a projected line using team power ratings plus home-field advantage. If you make Baltimore -6 at Indianapolis and the market is Baltimore -3.5, that’s potentially meaningful. If you make it -4, there probably isn’t enough edge to justify the bet.

3. Pay enormous attention to 3 and 7. Current examples illustrate why. Seattle was -3.5 against New England and Baltimore -3.5 at Indianapolis in recently posted numbers. Buying a favorite at -3 versus -3.5—or taking an underdog +3.5 instead of +3—can materially change long-term results.

4. Injuries matter more than simply counting who’s out. Concentrate on QB, offensive line, pass rush, cornerback and high-usage skill positions. For example, New England’s early Week 1 report includes Christian Barmore and starting-caliber center Ben Brown missing practice, while Seattle has multiple players limited or absent.

The question isn’t just who is injured? It’s how big is the drop-off to the replacement?

5. Attack coordinator and coaching changes. This is one of my favorite Week 1 angles. New systems can create temporary pricing errors because the market doesn’t yet know exactly how much a team’s pace, pass rate, blitz rate, coverage structure or red-zone philosophy has changed.

That can make first-half bets and team totals particularly interesting.

6. Be careful laying large numbers. The Chargers were recently around -10.5 against Arizona, while Jacksonville was around -7.5 against Cleveland 

7. Look harder at totals than most bettors do. Week 1 totals can offer opportunities when you identify a mismatch between expected pace and the posted number. Look for offensive-line continuity, new play callers, inexperienced QBs, secondary injuries, explosive-play capability and likely game script.

For example, Jets-Titans was recently only 38.5, while Tampa Bay-Cincinnati was 50.5. Those dramatically different totals tell you what the market already expects—your job is to find where that expectation is wrong.

Money management

If your normal strongest wager is 3 units, don’t automatically fire 3-unit bets throughout Week 1. There’s too much uncertainty.

Structure it roughly as 1 unit for a normal edge, 1.5–2 units for a strong edge, and reserve maximum exposure for an unusually large pricing discrepancy. Passing on a game is also a position.

Avoid putting five or six Week 1 favorites into a parlay simply because they “should win.” You can handicap five games correctly and lose the entire ticket because one favorite underperforms.

Look for teams where the market’s perception hasn’t caught up with the offseason.

The best candidates are teams with some combination of a major QB change, upgraded offensive line, new coordinator, substantially improved secondary, major pass-rush addition, important player returning from injury, or misleading 2025 record caused by turnovers/close-game variance.

Those situations can create the biggest gap between public perception and current team strength.

Power Rating → Injury/Depth Adjustment → Matchup Adjustment → Coaching Adjustment → Projected Spread → Compare to Market → Track Line Movement → Bet only if the edge remains.

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The “New” ATS Weekly Gaming Review is available for FREE. It’s full of stats, trends, picks, power ratings, key injuries and more.  

______________________________________________________________________________________

Upcoming and Current Events at ATS:

  • ATS Football set for another huge season!  NFL kicks off next Wednesday, September 9!
  • UFC has won 7 of the last 9 weeks. Discounts are available.
    __________________________________________________________________

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