Day: October 6, 2026

We begin mid-week college football for the first time this season and it go from now through Nov. 30. It starts with Southern Miss at Troy for a Sun Belt matchup on Tuesday. 

 Southern Miss at Troy — Tuesday, Oct. 6, 8:00 p.m. ET — ESPN2

Records: Southern Miss 1-3; Troy 2-2

Venue: Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, Alabama

TV: ESPN2

Current Odds: Troy -10.5/49. 

Southern Miss  +320 and Troy -410 on the moneyline.  

That movement makes sense: Southern Miss is missing its starting quarterback and two receivers, while Troy returns home after consecutive road losses..

Key Injuries

Southern Miss: QB Ethan Hampton — OUT; WR Grant Page — OUT; WR Jaylen Himes — OUT; ILB Tyler Lassiter — QUESTIONABLE;. Season-ending absences include OL Jahmir Davis, DB Jordan Pride, ILB Ricky Harding and DL Jeffery Rush.  

Troy: TE Fabian Rogosch — QUESTIONABLE; TE Jackson Worley — OUT FOR SEASON; DB Joe Lott — OUT FOR SEASON; DL Jermaine Paramore — OUT FOR SEASON. 

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Quarterback Matchup

Southern Miss — Landry Lyddy

Landry Lyddy, Southern Miss. 

• 508 passing yards
• 4 TD
• 1 INT

His last outing was encouraging. At Tulane, Lyddy completed 18 of 29 for 243 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. Southern Miss produced 401 yards and led 21-14 before losing 24-21.  

Southern Miss still has Mario Sanders, who has 20 receptions for 302 yards and three touchdowns, but Troy can now focus more coverage attention on the remaining healthy weapons.  

Troy — Goose Crowder

Crowder has:

• 822 passing yards
• 7 TD
• 4 INT

The numbers are respectable, but efficiency has been inconsistent. He has completed only about 52% of his passes this season.  

Against Utah State, Crowder went 25 of 49 for 226 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Troy turned the ball over four times overall.  

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Last Game Recaps

Southern Miss: Lost at Tulane 24-21

This was probably Southern Miss’ best performance since opening week.

• The Golden Eagles:
• Gained 401 yards
• Threw for 270 team passing yards
• Ran for 131
• Led 21-14

Lost on Tulane’s fourth-quarter comeback

Lyddy accounted for 243 passing yards and all three Southern Miss touchdowns through the air. Steven Robinson led the rushing attack with 73 yards, while A.J. Little had 75 receiving yards.  

The major concern was still the defense. Tulane rushed for 200 yards from Maurice Turner alone, reinforcing Southern Miss’ vulnerability against the run. 

Troy: Lost at Utah State 21-10

Troy actually gained 395 yards but killed itself with mistakes.

The Trojans:

• Passed for 226 yards
• Rushed for 169
• Held the ball for 34:16
• Committed four turnovers
• Missed two field goals
• Failed to score in the second half

Crowder’s three interceptions were especially costly. Gavin Griffin ran for 66 yards on 11 carries, and Noreel White caught six balls for a career-high 75 yards.  

Utah State outgained Troy only 413-395, so the final margin was driven as much by turnovers and failed scoring opportunities as by overall offensive production.

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2025 Meeting

These teams played in Hattiesburg on Nov. 29, 2025, with the Sun Belt West Division at stake.

Troy 28, Southern Miss 18

• Troy produced:
• 428 total yards
• 132 rushing
• 296 team passing yards

Southern Miss managed:

• 304 total yards
• 95 rushing
• 209 passing

Goose Crowder threw for 285 yards and three touchdowns, Tae Meadows rushed for 94, and RaRa Thomas had 118 receiving yards. Southern Miss

Troy has now beaten Southern Miss five consecutive times. Southern Miss

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Southern Miss Offense vs. Troy Defense

This matchup is the primary reason Troy is laying double digits.

Southern Miss has averaged 24.5 points per game, but that number is deceptive because it includes a 49-3 win over FCS Alcorn State. Against its three FBS opponents, Southern Miss has scored only:

• 8 vs. Auburn
• 20 vs. UConn
• 21 vs. Tulane

Troy’s defense has been the stronger unit. The Trojans are allowing roughly 21.5 points per game, and they held Missouri to just 27 points and around 230 yards earlier in the season.

Key matchup

Southern Miss pass protection vs. Troy’s pressure.

Troy’s Donnie Smith entered the Utah State game with an extraordinary run of disruptive production and recorded his fourth sack of the season, giving him a sack in every 2026 game. 

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Troy Offense vs. Southern Miss Defense.

Southern Miss has had major problems stopping the run. Covers’ matchup analysis ranks the Golden Eagles’ run defense near the bottom of FBS and specifically identifies the rushing matchup as Troy’s clearest offensive advantage.  

That was evident against Tulane, when Maurice Turner alone rushed for 200 yards.

Troy rushed for 169 yards at Utah State even while losing. Gavin Griffin averages roughly 4.8 yards per carry and has 259 rushing yards this season. S

That suggests Troy does not need Crowder to throw 40-50 times Tuesday.

The more logical approach is:

Run at Southern Miss.

• Control possession.
• Create manageable third downs.
• Use play action.
• Keep Crowder out of high-risk passing situations.

Troy currently holds the ball for roughly 33½ minutes per game, while both teams have struggled on third down: Troy is around 34% and Southern Miss around 33%.  

If Troy establishes the run, it can play exactly the style that favors an Under.

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ATS and Betting Trends

Some of the trends are stronger on the total than the side.

Troy:

• 0-4 O/U this season
• Under 5-0 in its last five conference games
• Under 4-0 in its last four home games
• Under 4-0 as a favorite
• Under 4-0 as a home favorite
• Under has cashed in 10 of Troy’s last 14 games overall. Covers.com
• Troy is only 1-3 ATS this season and has failed to cover as a large favorite multiple times.