ATS: Wednesday College Football Betting Preview – FIU vs New Mexico St; Kennesaw St vs. Jacksonville St


Jacksonville State–Kennesaw State is a rematch of last season’s CUSA Championship Game, while New Mexico State–FIU features a major recent QB change for the Aggies.

Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State

Kickoff: 7:00 p.m. ET — CBS Sports Network
Site: Fifth Third Stadium, Kennesaw, Georgia
Records: Jacksonville State 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS; Kennesaw State 1-3 SU, 3-1 ATS. 

Current odds:  Jacksonville State -3,  49.5. 

Weather

This looks almost ideal for football: roughly 69 degrees with very light wind and no meaningful weather impact expected. 

QB Matchup

Jacksonville State — Caden Creel:
Creel has developed into one of the more important dual-threat quarterbacks in CUSA.

2026: 87-of-126, 69.0%, 1,112 yards, 9 TD, 4 INT
Rushing: 375 yards, 3 TD

 

Creel was outstanding in the last game against Middle Tennessee: 241 passing yards and a TD plus 119 rushing yards and a TD, earning CUSA Offensive Player of the Week. 

Kennesaw State — Rickie Collins:
Collins gives Kennesaw a similar dual-threat dimension.

2026: approximately 749 passing yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: 185 yards, 3 TD

The efficiency has actually been pretty good — roughly 68% completions — even though the touchdown production hasn’t followed.

QB EDGE: Jacksonville State. Creel has been considerably more productive throwing touchdowns and has become the centerpiece of the Gamecock offense.


Last Game — Jacksonville State

Jacksonville State 23, Middle Tennessee 13

The final margin doesn’t fully show how well Jacksonville State moved the football.

The Gamecocks produced 517 total yards, including 276 rushing yards on 39 carries — 7.1 yards per rush. Creel accounted for 360 total yards himself.

Defensively, JSU held Middle Tennessee to 103 rushing yards and 319 total yards.

Jacksonville State has now won two straight after starting 1-2:

Georgia Southern — W 31-27
Middle Tennessee — W 23-13.


Last Game — Kennesaw State

Arkansas State 17, Kennesaw State 14

Kennesaw actually played reasonably well statistically despite losing its third consecutive game.

The Owls produced 326 yards, including 197 rushing, but couldn’t generate enough points. Arkansas State finished with 363 yards.

That’s becoming Kennesaw’s issue: the Owls average only 21.8 points per game, despite generating a respectable 368 yards per game. 

Offensive/Defensive Matchup

This game may come down to whether Kennesaw can prevent Creel from controlling the game with his legs.

Jacksonville State averages 27.4 points and 392.4 total yards per game. Kennesaw is allowing about 363 yards and 22.5 points.

Jacksonville State’s defense has been particularly good against the pass — about 151 passing yards allowed per game — but less imposing against the run at 170.8 yards allowed. 

2025 Meetings — Very Important

These teams actually played twice last season.

Nov. 15, 2025: Jacksonville State 35, Kennesaw State 26
JSU covered as a 3.5-point favorite.

Then came the rematch:

Dec. 5, 2025 — CUSA Championship:
Kennesaw State 19, Jacksonville State 15

Interestingly, Creel was held to only 96 passing yards in that championship loss, although he rushed for 112.


New Mexico State at FIU

Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET — ESPN2
Site: Pitbull Stadium, Miami
Records: New Mexico State 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS; FIU 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS.

Current Odds

FIU -6.5
Total: 46.5


Weather — 

Miami could have thunderstorms around the game.

Current forecast around kickoff:

81°F at kickoff
Very humid — approximately 86%
Light wind around 3 mph
Rain chance around 85%


QB Matchup

New Mexico State — Adam Damante

This is one of the most important handicapping factors tonight.

Damante made his first start of the season against Western Kentucky and helped engineer NMSU’s best performance of the year.

Season:

34-of-48 — 70.8%
373 yards
4 TD
1 INT
159.4 rating 

Against Western Kentucky:

15-of-26, 146 yards, 1 TD, plus a rushing touchdown.

Damante has been considerably more efficient than Ty Hedden, who has thrown for 887 yards but has a 5 TD/5 INT ratio and only a 54.3% completion percentage. 

FIU — QB situation

FIU has used Jaxon Kohl and Zach Marker, so this isn’t the same conventional one-QB matchup as JSU-Kennesaw.

Against LIU, Kohl went 6-of-11 for 135 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, while Marker was 6-of-10 for 92 yards. 

FIU’s passing offense overall has been productive statistically — approximately 294 passing yards per game — but the Panthers’ strength has really been their defense. 


Last Game — New Mexico State

New Mexico State 34, Western Kentucky 13

This was easily one of NMSU’s most encouraging performances.

The Aggies rushed for 206 yards, recorded six sacks and scored a defensive touchdown.

RB James Jones ran for a career-high 155 yards and a touchdown.

De’Marcus Peters returned an interception 53 yards for a TD, and NMSU led 20-6 at halftime. 

That’s significant because the Aggies had been blown out by rival New Mexico 42-18 immediately before it.

Their season:

at Florida State — L 34-17
Mercyhurst — W 51-14
at Hawaii — L 29-19
New Mexico — L 42-18
Western Kentucky — W 34-13. 


Last Game — FIU

FIU 20, LIU 3

FIU didn’t need explosive offense because the defense completely controlled the game.

The Panthers rushed for 167 yards and threw for 227. Anthony Carrie led the rushing attack with 71 yards on 14 carries. 

FIU’s season:

at USF — L 19-9
Buffalo — W 33-20
at FAU — L 16-10
LIU — W 20-3. 

Notice the pattern:

FIU hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in any game.

The Panthers are allowing only 14.5 PPG, 81.5 rushing yards per game and 164.8 passing yards per game.


NMSU Offense vs. FIU Defense

This is where the game gets interesting.

NMSU just rushed for 206 against Western Kentucky, with James Jones producing 155.

Now it faces an FIU defense allowing only:

81.5 rushing yards/game
2.5 yards per rush
164.8 passing yards/game
14.5 points/game. 

If FIU takes away Jones and forces Damante to throw 30-35 times in potentially wet conditions, we will find out quickly whether his excellent efficiency numbers are sustainable.

That’s the biggest tactical question of this game.


FIU Offense vs. NMSU Defense

FIU isn’t an offensive powerhouse — only 18.0 PPG — but it has generated approximately 418 total yards per game, including 294 passing.

The Panthers’ ability to generate explosive passes could be the difference. FIU’s Maguire Anderson presents a potentially favorable matchup against an NMSU secondary that has been vulnerable to efficient passing attacks.

 

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The “New” ATS Weekly Gaming Review is available for FREE. Vol. 5 is full of stats,weather, odds, trends, picks, power ratings, key injuries and more. Click here for your free copy.  

_________________________________________________________________

Upcoming and Current Events at ATS:

ATS Football is set for another huge season! If you want to test the waters, call or email us about our “big weekend” with discounted prices.

Baseball Playoffs wins in the opening week of the postseason. Don’t miss another profitable postseason as “average” clients are projected to win at least $10,000.

UFC has won 9 of the last 13 weeks. Has won 40+ units in that span. Discounts are available.

Hockey starts this week! We crushed it at the end of last season. 
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ATS: Betting approach for two months of daily football games


From October 1 through November 30, football fans will have something remarkable: 61 consecutive days with a football game on the schedule. That sounds like a bettor’s dream. It can also become a bettor’s nightmare.

When there is football every night, the temptation is to treat every game like an opportunity that must be played.

Tuesday night Conference USA, Wednesday MACtion, Thursday Night Football, Friday college football, a packed Saturday, the NFL on Sunday, Monday Night Football – and then start all over again. The advantage comes from being selective.

Our job is not to manufacture a selection because a game happens to be on television. Our job is to analyze the entire board and identify the situations where we believe the line is wrong. That distinction becomes even more important during a 61-day football marathon.

More Games Means Betting Wiser

Before ATS releases a selection, our handicapping team will evaluate: Power ratings; quarterback play; offensive and defensive matchups; key injuries and depth-chart changes; coaching and coordinator advantages; travel and scheduling situations; weather; historical ATS systems and trends; line movement; situational motivation; and matchup-specific analytics.

Protect the Bankroll for the Entire 61-Day Run

The goal is not to win everything on one Saturday. The goal is to still have a healthy bankroll when the calendar reaches Thanksgiving weekend. That means clients should avoid dramatically changing their wager size based on what happened the previous day. A bettor who loses Sunday afternoon should not suddenly make Monday Night Football three or four times larger trying to get even. Likewise, somebody who wins big Saturday should not start treating Tuesday night football like house money. ATS believes in a structured unit system.
Standard selections should receive standard wagering amounts. Larger wagers should be reserved for situations in which ATS has significantly greater confidence. That is also why Max Bets are intentionally rare. If everything were labeled a Max Bet, nothing would actually be a Max Bet. Those releases are designed for situations where several important handicapping factors align and our team believes there is an unusually strong discrepancy between our evaluation and the sportsbook number.

Midweek Football Requires a Different Handicap
Tuesday and Wednesday football is not simply Saturday football played on another night.

MAC, Conference USA and Sun Belt games frequently present very different circumstances: shortened preparation, unusual travel situations, smaller crowds, colder or windier late-season weather, less depth than major Power conference programs, quarterbacks or offensive linemen playing through injuries, and dramatically different levels of motivation. By late October and November, one team may be fighting for a conference championship or bowl eligibility while another may already know its postseason hopes are gone. ATS looks for those situational differences. The public may see two teams with similar records. Our job is to determine whether those records actually represent two teams in the same position. Very often, they do not.

Don’t Automatically Bet the Under in MACtion Midweek
Unders can certainly offer value, particularly when wind, cold weather, injuries or short preparation affect offenses. The correct question is: Has the sportsbook properly accounted for the circumstances? If two explosive offenses are facing depleted secondaries, the Over may still be the value. If a starting quarterback is missing, the offensive line is injured and 20-mph winds are expected, an Under could become attractive. We handicap the specific game, not the nickname attached to the night.

Injuries Become More Important as the Season Gets Longer

By October and November, virtually every football team is dealing with injuries. The challenge is determining which injuries actually matter. We study the replacement structure. If a quarterback is injured: Who is the backup? How much experience does he have? Does the offense need to change? Is the offensive line healthy? Are the starting receivers available? Can the team protect him with a strong running game? Does the opponent have a pass rush capable of exposing him? The same applies elsewhere. One injured cornerback may be manageable. Both starting corners missing against an elite passing attack could completely alter the matchup. A starting left tackle injury becomes much more significant against a dominant edge rusher. During a 61-day stretch, injury clusters can create some of the biggest discrepancies between ATS’ evaluation and the market.

The Advantage
During the 61-Day Football Marathon This stretch is exactly why professional handicapping can become particularly valuable. Instead of a client trying to evaluate dozens of teams, injuries, quarterback changes, weather forecasts, coaching situations, trends and line moves every single day, ATS’ handicapping team does that work continuously. That means more research, more discipline, better money management, fewer forced wagers, greater emphasis on the number, and bigger conviction only when the situation deserves it. For ATS clients, it means 61 days of potential opportunity – and the discipline to know when to play and when to pass. The games never stop. Neither does the research.

*****************************************************************************************

The “New” ATS Weekly Gaming Review is available for FREE. Vol. 7 is full of stats,weather, odds, trends, picks, power ratings, key injuries and more. Click here for your free copy.  

_________________________________________________________________

Upcoming and Current Events at ATS:

ATS Football is set for another huge season! Want to test the waters? Call or email us about our “big weekend” with discounted prices.

Baseball Playoffs won in the opening week of the postseason. Don’t miss another profitable postseason as “average” clients are projected to win at least $10,000.

UFC has won 9 of the last 13 weeks. Has won 40+ units in that span. Discounts are available.

Hockey starts this week! We crushed it at the end of last season. 
____________________________________________________________

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