Final Four Betting Preview
The Final Four is headed for Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis on Saturday, where we’ll have No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 UConn at 6:0pmET and No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 1 Michigan at 8:49pmET on TBS.
In terms of odds, Illinois is a 2.5-point favorite and the total is 139.5. The money line is Illinois -130. Michigan is a 1.5-point favorite in the second game and the total is 157.5. Michigan is -122 on the money line. On Thursday, I’ll have the second Final Four Game preview.
Illinois (28-8, 21-15 ATS, 14-22 O/U) vs. UConn (33-5, 16-22 ATS, 18-20 O/U)
These teams last met on Nov. 28, 2025, 74-61 from Madison Square Garden and in the Elite Eight in 2024, with UConn winning 77-52 before claiming their 2nd straight NCAA title. Illinois was led by Kylan Boswell, who had 25 points, while Solo Ball led the Huskies with 15 points. UConn shot 41% from the field and outrebounded the Illini by five. Illinois shot a putrid 32% from the field and just 6-of-29 (21%) from beyond the arc.
Illinois (4th KenPom, 1st Adjusted Offense, 20th Adjusted Defense) arrives at the Final Four after beating Iowa (71-59) in the Elite Eight. That came after upsetting No. 2 Houston by 10, VCU by 21 and Penn by 35. That’s not an easy road for the Illini who is a better team than they showed in late November. Their offense is listed as the most efficient in the country by KenPom. The question here is whether freshman point guard Keaton Wagler can be consistent. In the tournament, he’s averaging 17.5 points and 6.5 rebounds, while shooting 44% from the 3-point line. At 6-6, he can rebound (had 12 vs. Houston). Andrej Stojakovic is a Cal transfer and Peja’s son, who averages 13.6 points but is shooting just 24.4% from beyond the arc. The frontcourt is massive, led by forward David Mikrovic (6-9, 250), Tomislav (7-1, 255), and Zvonimir Ivisic (7-2, 255). They’ll have their hands full with Tarris Reed Jr. (6-11, 265). Strengths: Size, Offense. Weakness: Defense away from home (43.6% FG), 33.2% 3pt). 296th in Adjusted Tempo.
UConn (9th KenPom, 28th in Adjusted Offense, 9th in Adjusted Defense, 319th in Adjusted Tempo). UConn arrived here by beating Furman by 11, UCLA by 16, No. 3 Michigan State by four, and No. 1 Duke 73-72 in one of the most incredible finishes in the history of the NCAA Tournament. Braylon Mullins nailed a 35-pointer with 0.4 seconds left to lead the Huskies to the come-from-behind win. UConn did not play well, shooting just 5 of 23 from beyond the arc (22%), and Mullins was 0-for-5 from 3-point range before he made that big shot. But Tarris Reed Jr. was phenomenal against Duke, dominating the paint with 26 points, nine rebounds, and four blocks. Alex Karaban, who went 2 for 10 against the Blue Devils, is having a great tournament, averaging 17.8 points on 39% shooting from 3-point range despite that poor shooting performance. But with the size of the Illini, they will need players like Silas Demary Jr. (42% 3pt), Karaban (40% 3pt in the regular season), and Mullins (36.4% 3pt) to step up from the perimeter. Strengths: Dan Hurley is one of the best coaches in the nation. Very balanced scoring. Defense is elite, and they shoot 48.1% from the field. Weakness: Three-point shooting is mediocre for an elite team (34.6%, 85th overall). Offense can be susceptible to droughts.
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