Final Four Betting Preview
The Final Four is headed for Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis on Saturday, where we’ll have No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 UConn at 6:0pmET and No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 1 Michigan at 8:49pmET on TBS.
In terms of odds, Illinois is a 2.5-point favorite, and the total is 139.5. The money line is Illinois -130. Michigan is a 1.5-point favorite in the second game, and the total is 157.5. Michigan is -122 on the money line. Here is a link to the first preview of UConn/Illinois.
Michigan (35-3, 18-20 ATS, 16-22 O/U) vs. Arizona (36-2, 23-15 ATS, 19-19 O/U)
Michigan is the favorite to win the title (+170), according to DraftKings, while Arizona (+180) is the second favorite.
Michigan (1st KenPom, 5th Adjusted Offense, 1st Adjusted Defense) arrives at the Final Four after destroying No. 6 Tennessee 95-62, No. 4 Alabama (90-77), Saint Louis (75-72) and Howard (101-80). They were defeated by Purdue in the Big 10 title game 80-72 as a 4.5-point favorite.
The Wolverines have a very talented squad, led by 6-9 Yexel Lendenborg, who had 27 points and seven rebounds on Sunday against the Vols. He’s averaging 21 points per game, 7.3 rebounds, and 4.3 assists in this tournament, while shooting 59.2% from beyond the arc. Michigan might not have a superstar, but they have several players who might be taken in the first round of the NBA. One of them is 7-3 Aday Mara, who averages 11.3 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 2.6 blocks. Morez Johnson (6-9, 250) is another potential first-rounder who averages 13.7 points and 7.4 rebounds, while shooting 64.3% from the field. In terms of guards, Elliott Cadeau (9.9ppg, 5.5apg) runs the show, and as a junior, who also played at North Carolina, should be fine in this moment. *(Check on Cadeau’s status. Apparently, he had an allergic reaction to something he ate on Wednesday.
Strengths: Sixth in the country in field goal shooting. Size. They are eighth in rebound rate. Number one in the nation in field goal defense (38.4%). Weaknesses: Guards are good, but they don’t have an explosive scorer like Jaden Bradley, Keaton Wagler, or Silas Demary Jr. They are 288th in defensive turnover rate.
Arizona (2nd KenPom, 4th Adjusted Offense, 2nd Adjusted Defense) comes to the Final Four after winning 13 straight games. That includes a dominant performance over Big 10 champ Purdue (79-64), which was the second seed. They also crushed No. 4 Arkansas (109-88), beat Utah State by 12 and demolished LIU (92-58). This is Arizona’s first trip to the Final Four in 25 years. Guard Jaden Bradley, who was named Big 12 Player of the Year, has been ordinary in the tournament, averaging 13.3 points and 3.8 assists, while shooting 44.7% from the field (33.3% 3pt). But he’s normally a 39% three-point shooter. Guard Brayden Burries leads the Wildcats with 16 points per game and shoots 39.2% from the field. Arizona has the better guard play. Now the question is whether they can neutralize Michigan’s size. It helps to have freshman forward Koa Peat (6-8, 235), who averages 13.7 points along with 5.5 rebounds. Motiejus Krivas (7-2, 260) and Mara should be a war in the middle. He’s averaging 10.4 points, 8.4 rebounds and 1.9 blocks. An x-factor is Tobe Awaka (6-8, 250), who is a great rebounder with 9.3 per game in just 21.1 minutes per game.
Strengths: Rebounding (6th in total rebounding percentage). They shoot 50.3% from the field. Weaknesses: Three-point shooting (36.7%) is good, but not great. In conference play, they were worse at 33.2%. If you can slow down their game in the paint, Arizona takes just 26.4% of its shots from 3-point range, which is one of the lowest marks in the nation.
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