The first round series of the NBA Playoffs begins on Saturday, April 18, after the final Play-in Tournament ends on Friday night.
These series begin on Saturday, April 18.
5)Toronto (46-36 SU, 43-39 ATS, 33-49 O/U) vs. 4)Cleveland (52-30 SU, 33-48-1 ATS, 41-41 O/U)
Series: Cleveland -550/Toronto +400 (from DK)
*-DunkandThrees
Head-to-Head: These teams met three times, with the Raptors winning all three SU and ATS. They have not met since November 24, 2025, with Toronto winning 110-99.
Key Stats*: Toronto is 11th in Adjusted Net Rating, 15th in Adjusted Offensive Rating, 6th in Adjusted Defense. 22nd in Pace, 18th in Rebound Rate.
Cleveland is 9th in Adjusted Net Rating, 5th in Adjusted Offense and 16th in Adjusted Defense, 12th in Pace, 11th in Rebound Rate.
Analysis: This should be quite the matchup despite Toronto dominating the first three games. That came early in the season. Toronto comes into this game having won three of its last four games. They have as much talent as just about anybody in the Eastern Conference. The problem has been staying healthy, and they appear to be 100% coming into the playoffs. They have a lot of length, and it allows them to rank in the top 10 in field goal defense (46.7%) and three-point defense (34.9%). They are led by 6-9 Brandon Ingram (21.6ppg, 5.6rpg, 3.7apg) and Scottie Barnes (18.1ppg, 7.5rpg, 5.9apg). Jakob Poeltl (10.7ppg, 7rpg) sets the tone in the middle. They are also very deep, with 10 players averaging six or more points per game.
Cleveland is another dangerous team because they have Donovan Mitchell (27.9ppg, 5.7apg) and veteran James Harden (20.5ppg, 7.7apg) in the backcourt. Their frontcourt is loaded with Evan Mobley (18.2ppg, 9rpg) and Jarrett Allen (154.ppg, 8.5rpg). Their biggest issue is their three-point defense, which ranks 26th in the NBA (37.2%). The bigger question is whether Harden can put them over the top after they gave up Darius Garland for him. The Cavs did win five of their last six games, though mostly against non-playoff teams. Dennis Schroder was also added and while he’s not Garland, he knows how to get things done in the playoffs, backing up Harden and Mitchell. Lean? Toronto in six.
6)Minnesota (49-33 SU, 37-45 ATS, 37-45 O/U) vs. 3)Denver (54-28 SU, 44-38 ATS, 52-30 O/U)
Series: Denver -350/Minnesota +280 (from DK)
*-DunkandThrees
Head-to-Head: These teams met three times in the regular season with Denver winning 2 of 3 SU and ATS. They last met on March 1 with Minnesota winning at Denver 117-108 as a 3-point dog.
Key Stats*: Minnesota is 10th in Adjusted Net Rating, 13th in Adjusted Offensive Rating, 8th in Adjusted Defense. 9th in Pace, 12th in Rebound Rate.
Denver is 7th in Adjusted Net Rating, 1st in Adjusted Offense, and 21st in Adjusted Defense, 19th in Pace, 8th in Rebound Rate.
Analysis: Another potential (as the kids say) banger of a playoff series. The key for Minnesota is the health of Anthony Edwards, who has been limited by a knee injury. But he’s expected to go after resting for over a week. Edwards is a prolific scorer who averages 28.8 points and 5.0 rebounds per game on 39.9% three-point shooting. An underrated pickup for the T-Wolves was Ayou Dosunmo (14.4ppg, 3.5apg), while Donte DiVincenzo (12.2ppg, 3.8apg) is a gamer who runs the show. Up front, Julius Randle (21.1ppg, 6.7rpg) is a tough lefty post player, while Rudy Gobert (10.9ppg, 11.5rpg) still protects the paint as well as most. Minnesota shoots 37% from three-point range, and they defend well. They should have more than 49 wins, and while DiVincenzo is a solid player at the point, they could have used a younger Mike Conley there.
Denver could be another contender, and they are certainly playing as well as anybody in the league after winning 12 straight games to end the regular season. Now they also faced Utah twice, Memphis, Dallas, and several teams resting their starters due to injuries or clinching berths. When you have Nikola Jokic (27.7ppg, 12.9rpg, 10.7apg), you always have a chance. He actually led the league in rebounds and assists. Jamal Murray (25.4ppg, 7.1apg) is a pure scorer who can carry a team on certain nights. But the key is Aaron Gordon (16.2ppg, 5.8rpg), who appears to be healthy after playing just 36 games. While Denver doesn’t have a great bench, they did add veteran big man Jonas Valanciunas (8.7ppg, 5.1rpg) to relieve Jokic. They also have Cam Johnson (12.2ppg) and Peyton Watson (14.6ppg, 1.1bpg) who can contribute in various ways. Lean? Minnesota is deeper, but the Nuggets are finally healthy and playing so well.
6)Atlanta (46-33 SU, 44-38 ATS, 41-41 O/U) vs. 3)NY Knicks (54-28 SU, 44-38 ATS, 52-30 O/U)
Series: NY Knicks -275/Atlanta +220 (from DK)
*-DunkandThrees
Head-to-Head: These teams met three times in the regular season, with the Knicks winning twice but going 1-2 ATS.
Key Stats*: Atlanta is 12th in Adjusted Net Rating, 14th in Adjusted Offensive Rating, 9th in Adjusted Defense, 4th in Pace, 15th in Rebound Rate.
New York is 5th in Adjusted Net Rating, 4th in Adjusted Offense and 7th in Adjusted Defense, 25th in Pace, 5th in Rebound Rate.
Analysis: Atlanta could pose a major threat to the Knicks because they were very good down the stretch and nearly knocked off the Knicks (108-105 loss) on April 6 when both teams shortened rotations. The addition of veteran guard CJ McCollum and subtraction of Trae Young has made this team a squad to watch. From Feb. 22 until March 18, they won 11 straight games. Dyson Daniels (6-7, 199) and Nickeil Alexander-Walker (6-5, 205) have a lot of length and will attempt to slow down high-scoring Jalen Brunson. As good as Brunson has been (18.7ppg, 37.5% 3pt with Washington/Atlanta), he’s not a true point guard. Jalen Johnson (22.5ppg, 7.9apg, 10.3rpg) has been the team’s best all-around player and has been an under-the-radar star. The Hawks are shooting 37.1% from 3-point range to rank 5th. The defense is going to need to step up I this series as they’ve been pretty average this season (18th).
No pressure on the Knicks, right? If they lose this series, not only is head coach Mike Brown in trouble after one season, but they may break up some of the key pieces. They appear to have everything to at least make an Eastern Conference title run. Mitchell Robinson is a huge factor in this series, considering he’s averaged 10.5 rebounds and 2.0 blocks against Atlanta this season. Brunson (26ppg, 6.8apg) and Karl-Anthony Towns (20.1ppg, 11.9rpg) are the two top scorers, but they have help. The Knicks have the size and rebounding advantage, but what they have struggled it as Atlanta’s strength. Their three-point defense (38.4%, 22nd) could be a huge weakness in this series. Atlanta is also quicker and more athletic. KAT and Brunson are not defensive stalwarts. Lean? Atlanta in 7.
5)Houston (52-30 SU, 36-46 ATS, 39-43 O/U) vs. 4)LA Lakers (53-20 SU, 45-36-1 ATS, 42-40 O/U)
Series: Houston -575/LA Lakers +400 (from DK)
*-DunkandThrees
Head-to-Head: These teams met three times in the regular season with the Lakers winning twice, including on March 18 (124-116).
Key Stats*: Houston is 6th in Adjusted Net Rating, 8th in Adjusted Offensive Rating, 5th in Adjusted Defense, 29th in Pace, 1st in Rebound Rate.
LA Lakers are 14th in Adjusted Net Rating, 9th in Adjusted Offense and 20th in Adjusted Defense, 28th in Pace, 9th in Rebound Rate.
Analysis: Houston is the favorite in this series because Luka Doncic (hamstring) and Austin Reaves (oblique) are not expected to play. Barring a minor miracle, the Rockets will be facing LeBron James and mostly role players. One player who has the ability to step up is center DeAndre Ayton (12.5ppg, 8rpg) and veteran Marcus Smart (9.3ppg, 3apg), who has played in plenty of playoff series with Boston. But this will be all about LeBron James. At 41, he’s still averaging 20.9 points, 7.2 assists and 6.1 rebounds. He’ll need to average 30+ in this series for the Lakers to have a chance. They’ll need to defend better in this series, as they rank 24th in field goal defense.
Houston has an aging star in Kevin Durant, who led the team with 26 points on 52% shooting (41.3% 3pt). Alperen Sengun (20.4ppg, 8.9rpg, 6.2apg) is a poor man’s Nikola Jokic, while Amen Thompson (18.3ppg, 7.8rpg, 5.3apg) is an explosive athlete. Reed Sheppard has earned more playing time this season because he can fill it up from deep (39.4%), and they need production at the point. Defensively, Houston is top 10 in most categories including 3-poitn defense, while the Lakers are 24th (32.9%) in 3-point shooting. The Rockets won nine of the 10 games to end the season. Lean? Rockets in six, but I’d wait until more about Doncic and Reaves before betting the series price.
Sunday, April 19
7)Philadelphia (46-37 SU, 42-38-3 ATS, 39-44 O/U) vs. 2)Boston (56-26 SU, 49-32-1 ATS, 30-52 O/U)
Boston -900/Philadelphia +600
*(stats from DunkandThrees.com and Team Rankings).
Head-to-Head: These teams spit the four games with Philly going 2-1-1 ATS.
Key Stats*: Boston is 3rd in Adjusted Net Rating, 2nd in Adjusted Offensive Rating, 4th in Adjusted Defense. 30th in Pace, 4th in Rebound Rate.
Philadelphia is 18th in Adjusted Net Rating, 17th in Adjusted Offense and 16th in Adjusted Defense, 16th in Pace, 23rd in Rebound Rate.
Analysis: This is one of the premier rivalries in the NBA. Unfortunately for Philadelphia, they are not expected to have center Joel Embiid due to an appendectomy. Without Embiid, the Sixers were able to beat Orlando 109-97 on Wednesday in the play-in tournament to advance. Tyrese Maxey went for 31 points and he’ll need to do more to get the Sixers past a very good Boston team. He’s averaging over 28 points per game, but he’ll need help from Paul “Playoff P” George, who had 16 points and doesn’t always live up to that moniker in the postseason. The Sixers struggle to shoot the three (34.9%) and they’re not great on the boards despite having Andre Drummond in the middle.
Boston lost two games to Philadelphia this season, but they didn’t have Jayson Tatum for any of those games. Tatum has come back from an Achilles injury, and he’s been good, but not great. He’s shooting just 41.1% from the field and 32.9% from beyond the arc, which is understandable since he has played in 16 games. Jaylen Brown (28.7ppg, 6.9rpg) should be an MVP candidate for keeping this team near the top of the standings with Tatum out for most of the season. This team has some flaws, but not many. Their offense could be outstanding if Tatum gets his touch back, as they are shooting just 46.7% (16th) from the field. They also lack a dominant center, but they got veteran Nikola Vucevic back on April 5 from injury. He’ll help as the playoffs continue on offense. Lean? Boston should win this in four.
7)Portland (43-40 SU, 45-38 ATS, 43-40 O/U) vs 2)San Antonio (62-21 SU, 45-36-2 ATS, 36-47 O/U)
Series: Spurs -2000/Trail Blazers +1000 (from DK)
*-DunkandThrees
Head-to-Head: These teams met three times, with the Spurs winning twice and covering twice. All three games went under.
Key Stats*: Portland is 20th in Adjusted Net Rating, 21st in Adjusted Offensive Rating, 11th in Adjusted Defense. 8th in Pace, 7th in Rebound Rate.
San Antonio is 2nd in Adjusted Net Rating, 3rd in Adjusted Offense and 3rd in Adjusted Defense, 15th in Pace, 6th in Rebound Rate.
Analysis: Portland upset Phoenix on the road 114-110 on Tuesday to gain entrance to the playoffs for the first time in 10 years. Deni Avdija led the Blazers with 41 points in that game and has been the leader on the floor all season. Portland comes into this game having won six of its last eight games. Avdija averages 24.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 6.8 assists and is their assists leader. But for this team to advance, they’ll need more than Avdija to shine. Jrue Holiday (16.3ppg, 6.1apg) is one of those veterans who two rings and understands what it means to win the big one. Shaedon Sharpe (20.8ppg), Jerami Grant (18.6ppg), Scoot Henderson (14.2ppg) and Toumani Camara (13.4ppg, 5.1rpg) will all need to step up. Center Donovan Clingan (12.1ppg , 11.6rpg) is one of the most improved big men in the league.
Speaking of big men or long men, 7-4 Victor Wembanyama is an unstoppable player in many ways. The only way he can be stopped (25ppg, 11.5rpg, 3.1bpg, 3.1apg) is through injuries. That slowed him down to some extent as he was limited to 65 games this season, but he should be close to 100% and raring to go in his first playoff series. The Spurs didn’t win 62 games due to Wemby. They have a ton of talent, especially at guard with De’Aaron Fox (18.6ppg, 6.2apg), Stephon Castle (16.7ppg, 7.4apg, 5.3rpg), and Devin Vassell (13.9ppg). Rookie Dylan Harper is also starting to come on as if they needed more help. He’s averaging 13.7 points and 4.0 assists, while shooting 54.8% from the field and 53.3% from beyond the arc in his last 10 games. Lean? Come on. If Wemby is healthy, the Spurs should sweep. Pass because that’s too much to lay.
(The next two series were written before Friday night’s results. But when it comes to No. 8 vs. No. 1 in the NBA Playoffs, there have only been six upsets since 1984. The last was when Miami shocked Milwaukee in five games in 2023. Detroit appears to be a pretty vulnerable top seed only because they are pretty young and their best player, Cade Cunningham, is just returning from a collapsed lung.
8)Suns (44-37 SU, 45-33-3 ATS, 36-45 O/U) or 8)Warriors (37-44 SU, 34-46-1 ATS, 49-32 O/U) vs. 1)OKC (64-18 SU, 39-41-1 ATS, 43-38 O/U)
Key Stats*: OKC is 1st in Adjusted Net Rating, 7th in Adjusted Offensive Rating, 1st in Adjusted Defense. 15th in Pace, 25th in Rebound Rate.
Finals Odds
OKC +110/Phoenix +70000/Golden State +60000
Western Conference Odds
OKC -160/Phoenix +20000/Golden State +18000
Analysis: Oklahoma City is the team to beat this season. They have the best guard and arguably the best player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who averages 31.1 points and 6.6 assists, while shooting 55.3% from the field and 38.6% from beyond the arc. They’ve had a ton of injuries throughout the season but everyone appears to be healthy. Chet Holmgren (17.1ppg, 8.9rpg, 1.9bpg) and Jalen Williams (17.1ppg, 5.5apg) are the other key players and difference-makers on both ends. Williams has played in just 33 games due to various injuries. Despite the injuries, they have a +11.9 net rating and a 107.3 DRTG because their depth is amazingly good. However, their rebounding numbers might be a concern when they face the Spurs (if it happens in the Finals).
8)Magic (45-36 SU, 37-43-1 ATS, 45-36 O/U) or 8)Hornets (43-38, 50-31 ATS, 31-50 O/U) vs. 1)Detroit (60-22 SU, 44-37-1 ATS, 38-44 O/U)
Key Stats*: Detroit is 4th in Adjusted Net Rating, 10th in Adjusted Offense and 2nd in Adjusted Defense, 20th in Pace, 3rd in Rebound Rate.
Finals Odds
Detroit +2200/Charlotte +10000/Orlando +35000
Eastern Conference Odds
Detroit +500/Charlotte +2500/Orlando +7500
Analysis:
Cade Cunningham (23.9ppg, 9.9apg, 5.5rpg) and the Detroit Pistons have the best record in the East, but they are fourth favorite (+500) to win the East behind Boston (+155), Cleveland (+330) and the Knicks (+450). That shows you the lack of a respect for a team that has won 60 games. Maybe it’s due to Cunningham’s recent return from a collapsed lung. It’s not like they didn’t finish strong, winning six of their last seven. Jalen Duren (19.5ppg, 10.5rpg) and Isaiah Stewart (10ppg, 1.6bpg) are as good a 1-2 center duo in the game. The problem is that there isn’t a whole lot of balance after Cunningham and Duren. Their defense is elite as they rank first in the NBA defending the three-point shot and that’s where Ausar Thompson (2spg) fits in. They do rank third in the NBA in field goal percentage (48.5%), but just 17th in three-point percentage (35.6%).
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