NFL & College Football Previews
Thursday Football Betting Preview — November 5, 2026
Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) at Baltimore Ravens (4-4)
8:15 p.m. | Prime Video | M&T Bank Stadium
Odds: Jacksonville -10.5; total 39.5. Jacksonville -500 and Baltimore +425.
The major storyline: Baltimore has ruled out Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley, putting undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano in line for his first NFL start. This changes the offense considerably.
Quarterback matchup
- Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville: 1,690 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, four interceptions, 65.7% completions; 80 rushing yards. He enters with an excellent touchdown-to-interception ratio and has produced efficiently without needing enormous passing volume.
- Joe Fagnano, Baltimore: In his relief appearance against Buffalo, he completed 10 of 21 passes for 91 yards, with one interception and a lost fumble. Baltimore finished that game with only 144 total yards. His first start comes on a short preparation week.
EPA and efficiency
EPA measures how much a play changes a team’s expected points. Positive offensive EPA is better; negative defensive EPA allowed is better.
The current matchup page from Early Downs reports:
| Measure | Jacksonville | Baltimore |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive EPA/play | +0.12 — 3rd | +0.02 — 16th |
| Defensive EPA/play allowed | -0.08 — 4th | +0.02 — 18th |
Offense/Defense
Jacksonville offense vs. Baltimore defense: The Jaguars average 350.3 total yards, with 227.4 net passing and 122.9 rushing yards per game. Their 6.1 yards per play shows more explosiveness than the total-yardage ranking alone suggests. Baltimore allows 331.0 yards, split between 228.2 passing and 102.8 rushing, and holds opponents to 3.8 yards per rush.
Baltimore offense vs. Jacksonville defense: Baltimore’s season average is 338.6 yards per game; Jacksonville allows 331.3. The practical question is whether Henry can keep Baltimore out of obvious passing situations. Those season averages carry less predictive value now that Baltimore is starting its third quarterback.
Key injuries and impact
Baltimore
- QB Lamar Jackson — OUT, right thumb.
- QB Tyler Huntley — OUT, toe.
- S Jaylinn Hawkins — OUT, knee.
- CB Nate Wiggins — QUESTIONABLE, stinger/illness. His absence would further weaken coverage.
Jacksonville
- RB Bhayshul Tuten — QUESTIONABLE, ankle/foot; game-time decision. He missed all three practices.
- DE Travon Walker — QUESTIONABLE, ribs.
- DT DaVon Hamilton and S Eric Murray — placed on injured reserve with season-ending injuries.
Tuten has 492 rushing yards, 181 receiving yards and six total touchdowns. Rodriguez has 209 rushing yards and three touchdowns and would be a candidate for additional work if Tuten sits. Hamilton’s absence is particularly relevant to Henry’s rushing matchup.
Last-game recap
Jacksonville beat Indianapolis 42-7. Lawrence went 10-for-14 for 210 yards and three touchdowns; Tuten rushed for 104 yards and scored both rushing and receiving. The defense recorded four sacks and three takeaways.
Baltimore lost 36-10 at Buffalo, its third consecutive defeat, while losing both Jackson and Huntley during the game.
Weather: Approximately 67°F at kickoff, with clouds and intermittent showers possible during the game.
Top prop bets — ranked
Joe Fagnano Under 162.5 passing yards (-113).
Trevor Lawrence Under 237.5 passing yards (-113).
Derrick Henry Under 69.5 rushing yards (-113),
Best bets
- Preferred: Baltimore team total Under 14.5, at -120 or better.
UTSA Roadrunners (7-1) at Florida Atlantic Owls (5-3)
7:30 p.m. | ESPN | Flagler Credit Union Stadium, Boca Raton
Odds: UTSA -7; total approximately 72.5; moneylines are UTSA -265 / FAU +215.
UTSA enters 4-0 in conference play, riding five consecutive wins and coming off a bye. FAU is 2-2 in the conference after losing a high-scoring game at North Texas.
Quarterback matchup
Owen McCown, UTSA: 169-of-243, 69.5%, 1,751 yards, 10 touchdowns and four interceptions. He also has 116 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown. UTSA can win through balance rather than asking him to carry every possession.
Caden Veltkamp, FAU: 227-of-316, 71.8%, 2,536 yards, 23 touchdowns and five interceptions, using UTSA’s official scouting report. His leading target, Easton Messer, has 74 catches for 898 yards and nine touchdowns. This is a dangerous passing offense even when FAU trails.
Offense/Defense
UTSA averages approximately 409.3 total yards, with 224.4 passing and 184.9 rushing yards.
FAU’s defense allows 468.9 yards per game, including 256.0 rushing yards, and 7.0 yards per play. Opponents average 6.2 yards per carry. That is the clearest matchup advantage: UTSA should have opportunities to sustain drives on the ground.
FAU averages 440.0 yards and 37.8 points, while allowing 35.8 points per game. UTSA’s defense will have to prevent Veltkamp and Messer from turning the game into a possession-for-possession shootout.
EPA and efficiency
(from CollegeFootballDigest)
- UTSA offense: +0.23 EPA/play, 30th; 47% success rate.
- FAU offense: +0.19 EPA/play, 43rd; 46% success rate.
- UTSA defense: +0.10 EPA/play allowed, 81st.
- FAU defense: +0.27 EPA/play allowed, 136th.
Recent form and last-game recaps
- UTSA: Won 42-19 at Tulane, 38-34 over Navy, and 31-24 over South Florida.
- FAU: Lost 48-41 at North Texas, beat Rice 51-49, and lost 56-24 at Army.
McCown threw for just 173 yards with two interceptions against Tulane, yet UTSA still won decisively. Veltkamp threw for 452 yards and five touchdowns against North Texas, and FAU still lost. Those results illustrate UTSA’s broader paths to victory and FAU’s defensive problems.
Key injuries
none reported as of late
Weather: Approximately 79–80°F, mostly clear around kickoff.
James Madison Dukes (7-2) at Southern Miss Golden Eagles (3-5)
8 p.m. | ESPN2 | Renasant Stadium, Hattiesburg
Odds: James Madison approximately -14.5, ; total 58.5. Indicative moneylines are JMU -650 / Southern Miss +475.
JMU has lost consecutive overtime games, while Southern Miss has won two straight. The Dukes’ season profile remains stronger, but George Pettaway’s absence makes laying more than two touchdowns less attractive.
Quarterback matchup
Camden Coleman, JMU: The published pregame statistical summary lists approximately 1,743 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, four interceptions and 61.3% completions. JMU also uses JC Evans, who contributed 72 passing yards against Troy.
Landry Lyddy, Southern Miss: 1,326 passing yards, eight touchdowns, four interceptions and 57.7% completions in the same summary.
Coleman threw two touchdowns and two interceptions against Troy, while Evans threw another interception. Southern Miss will try to force another mistake-filled passing performance.
Offense/Defense
JMU offense: Approximately 450.9 yards per game, with 248.9 passing and 202.1 rushing yards, plus 39.1 points. The Dukes rank highly in red-zone scoring and fourth-down conversion rate.
JMU defense: Allows 18.9 points per game, best in the Sun Belt. The published statistical summary lists 352.2 total yards allowed, including 235.4 passing and 116.8 rushing.
Southern Miss offense: Approximately 399.5 total yards, with 232.4 passing and 167.1 rushing yards, producing 26.9 points per game.
Southern Miss defense: Allows approximately 432 yards and 31 points per game, including 223.4 rushing yards. That creates an obvious opening for JMU, although losing its leading runner matters. Southern Miss also converts only 30.9% of third downs, making early-down rushing success especially important.
Key injuries
James Madison
- RB George Pettaway — OUT, lower body. This is the major offensive absence.
- WR Noah Grevious — QUESTIONABLE.
- DB Jayon Harvey, TE KD Mosley and QB Tanner Vibabul — OUT
Southern Miss
The retrieved availability listing has OL Jahmir Davis, WR Jaylen Himes, DL Jeffery Rush, DB Jeremiah Dillon, DB Jordan Pride, ILB Ricky Harding and RB Robert Briggs OUT.
Recent form and last-game recaps
JMU’s last three: W 49-22 vs. Georgia State; L 34-31 at Appalachian State in overtime; L 24-21 vs. Troy in overtime. Against Troy, the Dukes scored touchdowns on their first three possessions but committed five turnovers.
Southern Miss’ last three: L 23-13 vs. Arkansas State; W 35-31 vs. Louisiana; W 35-21 at ULM. Lyddy completed 15 of 30 for 130 yards and one touchdown at ULM,
Weather: Around 66°F at kickoff, cooling toward the low 60s, with partly cloudy skies.
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