The 2025-26 coaching carousel was unusually large: 33 FBS programs entered 2026 with a new permanent head coach, including 17 Power Four programs. There were also 63 new Power Four coordinators, so for handicapping purposes the coordinator changes can be almost as important as the head-coaching moves. Check out the coordinator moves below. 

Team                                    New Head Coach                               Previous Job

The moves matter MOST for handicapping

1. Lane Kiffin — LSU

This is my No. 1 coaching-change team for bettors. LSU isn’t simply changing coaches; it’s changing its offensive identity and roster construction. Kiffin has historically been aggressive schematically and in the portal, and LSU assembled a major transfer haul around him. 

Handicapping implication: Don’t anchor LSU’s 2026 offensive rating to its 2025 numbers. Early LSU team totals and Overs deserve special attention. But there’s also a danger: the public knows Kiffin’s reputation, so LSU Overs may become inflated quickly.

2. Eric Morris — Oklahoma State

This could actually create the largest difference between a 2025 power rating and the true 2026 team.

Oklahoma State went 1-11 in 2025 and then brought in Morris from North Texas, along with QB Drew Mestemaker, RB Caleb Hawkins and a massive transfer influx. CBS reported 54 transfers, the most in the country at the time.

That means last year’s Oklahoma State statistical profile is nearly useless.

Betting angle: Oklahoma State may initially be underrated by models carrying too much 2025 data.

The key isn’t simply “bet Oklahoma State.” It’s recognizing that a team with enormous roster and system turnover deserves a much lower weighting on last year’s EPA, success rate and yards-per-play numbers.

This is one of my favorite early-season ATS watch teams.

3. Alex Golesh — Auburn

This is a fascinating totals situation.

Golesh arrives from South Florida and brought quarterback Byrum Brown plus numerous former USF starters, while Auburn retained defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin.

That combination matters.

You could get:

faster/more aggressive offense + relatively stable defense.

Those aren’t automatically Overs. If Auburn’s offense improves substantially while the defense remains strong, the better early opportunity can sometimes be Auburn team-total Overs rather than full-game Overs.

I would especially study Auburn’s possessions per game and seconds per snap immediately.

4. Kyle Whittingham — Michigan

Whittingham is almost the opposite handicapping case.

Michigan gets an experienced coach whose programs have historically emphasized physicality, defense, preparation and line-of-scrimmage football—but Michigan also brought Jason Beck with him to reshape the offense around Bryce Underwood. CBS specifically highlighted Beck’s offense as a major component of the transition.

That creates an unusual betting possibility:

The market may price Michigan as traditional “slow, defense-first Michigan” longer than the new offense warrants.

Watch Michigan’s early explosive pass rate and first-down play calling.

If Beck opens the offense substantially, old Michigan Under tendencies become far less useful.

5. Will Stein — Kentucky

Stein comes directly from Oregon’s offensive operation. Kentucky spent years being identified with Mark Stoops’ defense/run-game/field-position identity. The philosophical transition could be substantial, and Kentucky also attacked the transfer market aggressively.

That means historical Kentucky ATS and Under trends require a major discount.

If Kentucky begins playing materially faster or throwing more frequently on early downs, old Kentucky Under systems should be thrown out quickly.

6. Matt Campbell — Penn State

This one requires patience.

Campbell didn’t merely change schools. A significant group of Iowa State players followed him to Penn State, including QB Rocco Becht.

Penn State’s logo and recruiting reputation could create inflated numbers while the roster learns a new system

7. James Franklin — Virginia Tech

Franklin could be a very good ATS coach to monitor early because the market perception of Virginia Tech is much lower than the perception of Penn State.

That matters.

He also brought substantial personnel familiarity with him, while Brent Pry returned as defensive coordinator. CBS characterized Virginia Tech as one of the carousel’s strongest immediate-reload situations.

Unlike at Penn State, Franklin may not initially face “elite-program tax” in every point spread.

Potential value: Virginia Tech as a short favorite or underdog rather than laying huge numbers.

8. Jon Sumrall — Florida

Sumrall brings a strong winning history from Troy/Tulane and an SEC-oriented approach. Florida is more interesting to me defensively and situationally than simply as an offensive upgrade.

Look closely at Florida as an underdog.

A well-coached, physical team with enough talent can become much more valuable catching +6½ or +7½ than laying -17 against inferior opposition.

9. Bob Chesney — UCLA

Chesney’s rise through Holy Cross and James Madison has been built heavily around development, organization and maximizing personnel. He took JMU to the playoff before UCLA hired him.

UCLA also underwent enormous transfer turnover.

That’s exactly the sort of program where conventional preseason power ratings have wide error bars.

Handicapping angle: Don’t judge UCLA solely on its first game. Developmental coaches often reveal their value as the season progresses.

10. Morgan Scalley — Utah

Scalley has spent years inside the Utah program, so the defensive identity and physicality should have considerable continuity. The bigger handicapping question is offense because Jason Beck followed Whittingham to Michigan and Utah changed offensive leadership.

Early Utah totals may therefore offer Under opportunities if the market assumes offensive continuity that isn’t actually there.

The biggest hidden factor: coordinator changes

This is extremely important.

There were 63 new coordinators in the Power Four alone, and 17 Power Four programs changed both coordinators. That is enough schematic turnover that blindly using last year’s offensive and defensive efficiencies can be dangerous.

Two examples jump out: Chad Morris returned to Clemson as offensive coordinator, while Will Muschamp returned to Texas as defensive coordinator.

Yes. For the 2026 FBS season, there has been enormous coordinator turnover. FootballScoop’s trackers identify 60 offensive-coordinator changes and 53 defensive-coordinator changes; because many schools changed both, the unique-team total is lower.

Here is the full list of teams appearing on at least one of those coordinator-change trackers:

FBS Team                                                                                                                 New OC             New DC

Key: ✓ = New coordinator · — = No new coordinator · ✓* = New OC designation as provided.