As we approach NFL preseason Week 2, while I wouldn’t call this a “dress rehearsal”, you have more data, more information, reliable depth charts, and coaches who are starting to reveal their plans for starter usage.

The biggest mistake is treating preseason games like regular-season games. The question isn’t “Which team is better?” It’s “Which team is getting more valuable snaps from its best players?”

1. Make QB playing time your No. 1 handicap

This is still the single biggest variable.

For Week 2, we’re already seeing several serious situations:

• Denver: Bo Nix is expected to play after sitting out Week 1.
• Jacksonville: Trevor Lawrence could get a couple of drives.
• Cincinnati: Joe Burrow played 13 snaps in Week 1 and could again have a limited workload.
• Tampa Bay: Todd Bowles has said his starters, including Baker Mayfield, will play.
• LA Chargers: Jim Harbaugh said he’d play his starters one series on Thursday against the 49ers. 
• Cleveland is expected to start QB Shedeur Sanders and he’ll play the entire first half.

And the Jets-Steelers game is particularly interesting because Aaron Glenn is considering playing Geno Smith, who missed Week 1 with a minor injury.

1)Don’t bet a preseason spread until you know the expected QB rotation—or have a very strong reason to anticipate an advantage before the market catches up.

2. Week 2 is a good week to look for “starter vs. backup” mismatches

Because teams are experimenting with different playing-time strategies, you can get situations where:

Team A

• Starting QB: 2-3 drives
• Starting OL: 2-3 drives
• Starting defense: 1-2 series

vs.

Team B

• Backup QB: entire first half
• Second-string OL: significant playing time
• Second-string defense: significant playing time

In that situation, the team with fewer “starters” could actually be the better full-game wager.

That’s why preseason lines can move dramatically when a coach announces his rotation.

3. Don’t overreact to Week 1 results

This is a huge Week 2 trap.

If a team won 34-10 in Week 1, don’t automatically assume it’s a great preseason team.

Instead, ask:

Who produced the points?

A touchdown scored by the first-team offense is much more relevant than three touchdowns against third-string defenders.

Break Week 1 performance into:

• First-team offense
• Second-team offense
• Third-team offense
• First-team defense
• Backup defense
• Turnovers
• Special teams

Turnovers are especially dangerous to use as a predictive statistic.

4. Look for QB competitions

These are some of my favorite preseason situations.

A QB competition can mean the coaching staff has a reason to give a player more snaps than a normal starter would receive.

Cleveland’s Deshaun Watson started Week 1, while Shedeur Sanders is scheduled to start the Week 2 game against Buffalo and play the first half, with Watson taking the second half.

However, Sanders struggled in the second half and the Browns were crushed by the Bears 34-10.

5. Pay close attention to injuries

Week 2 is where this becomes especially important.

Don’t just look at the injury report. Look at position and depth.

QB → offensive line → pass rush → secondary → skill positions

A backup quarterback losing his starting center and two starting receivers can be much more significant than losing a starting linebacker in a preseason game.

And monitor players who were injured in Week 1. For example, Washington backup QB Marcus Mariota is out for the remainder of the preseason with an MCL sprain, although he’s expected back for Week 1.

6. Joint practices are a major Week 2 angle

This is one of the things to emphasize more in Week 2 than Week 1.

Teams often have joint practices with their preseason opponents. Those practices can tell you:

• Which starters are getting significant reps
• Whether the offense is moving the ball
• Which defensive backs are struggling
• Whether a QB is comfortable in the system
• Whether a coach intends to use starters in the game

The preseason schedule is also affected by these practices, and coaches sometimes alter game participation because players already received extensive work during the week.

Week 2 betting checklist

Before putting money on a game, I’d want answers to these 10 questions:

1. Who is starting at QB?
2. How many drives is he expected to play?
3. Who is the No. 2 QB?
4. How long will the No. 2 play?
5. Which starting OL are playing?
6. Which starting defensive players are playing?
7. Are there important injuries?
8. Did the teams have joint practices?
9. What did the first-team units actually do in Week 1?
10. Has the betting line already adjusted for all of this?