TAMPA BAY AT DALLAS — 8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video

Records: Tampa Bay 0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS; Dallas 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS. Dallas games have gone 4-0 Over this season.  

Last game recap: Tampa Bay lost 17-14 to Green Bay in rookie Jalon Daniels’ first start. He produced two touchdown drives but threw two first-half interceptions, and protection problems contributed to the offense stalling on its late opportunity to win. Dallas beat Houston 34-30 behind Dak Prescott’s 32-of-45 passing for 335 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions. CeeDee Lamb caught 17 passes for 189 yards and the winning touchdown; Javonte Williams scored three rushing touchdowns.  

QB matchup: Jalon Daniels vs. Dak Prescott. Daniels threw for 148 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions, adding 55 rushing yards, against Green Bay. Prescott enters with 1,065 passing yards, eight touchdowns and a 105.0 passer rating through four games. Dallas has the substantial advantage in experience and established passing production. Daniels’ mobility gives Tampa Bay a way to extend possessions when protection breaks down. 

Key injuries: Tampa Bay has ruled out QB Baker Mayfield (right thumb), S Antoine Winfield Jr. (rib), CB Benjamin Morrison (quad) and LB SirVocea Dennis (ankle/foot). Dallas has ruled out CB Cobie Durant, LB DeMarvion Overshown and OT Drew Shelton. G Tyler Smith and WR Jonathan Mingo are questionable. Lamb practiced fully Wednesday and has no game designation.  

2025 matchup: They did not meet in 2025. Their most recent meeting was Dallas’ 26-24 home win on December 22, 2024.  

Offense vs. defense: Dallas averages 30.5 points, but its defense ranks last in yards allowed per play and has struggled on third down. That creates an opportunity for Tampa Bay to improve offensively despite starting a rookie. Conversely, Winfield and Morrison’s absences make defending Lamb and George Pickens considerably more difficult. 

Prop Bets 

(from DraftKings)

First TD scorer

Javonte Williams  +370

Anytime TD Scorer

Jake Ferguson +205

Jalon Daniels +255

College Football 

SAM HOUSTON AT LIBERTY — 7 p.m. ET, ESPNU

Records: Sam Houston 1-3 SU, 3-1 ATS on the Covers ledger; Liberty 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS. 

Last game recap: Sam Houston lost 49-14 at Texas Tech on September 26 and has had an open week since. Landyn Locke completed 23 of 37 passes for 195 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Liberty won 30-14 at Delaware, building a 30-0 lead before allowing two late scores. Kam Davis rushed for 147 yards, while Deshawn Purdie went 13-of-20 for 157 yards without an interception.  

QB matchup: Landyn Locke vs. Deshawn Purdie. Adding Locke’s four game logs gives 1,168 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and three interceptions, with 96 completions in 145 attempts—66.2%. He exceeded 300 passing yards in each of his first three games. Purdie has seven touchdown passes and no interceptions; his recent performances have complemented Liberty’s increasingly productive running attack.  

Key injuries: Liberty’s published watch list includes RB J. Marshall (leg), RB C. Wood, TE B. Burklow and TE C. Ryan, all questionable.   

Offense vs. defense: Sam Houston’s Air Raid averages 308 passing yards per game, while Liberty’s spread-option attack averages 208.2 rushing yards. Sam Houston’s defense has improved to 335.5 yards allowed per game, substantially better than last season. Liberty has shut out opponents in seven of its last 12 quarters.  

MISSOURI STATE AT WESTERN KENTUCKY — 7 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network

Records: Missouri State 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS, calculated from its four listed betting results because the matchup page’s summary incorrectly shows 0-0. Western Kentucky 1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS.  

Last game recap: Missouri State lost 34-24 at SMU on September 26, covering a large underdog spread. The Bears were within 21-18 in the fourth quarter, and Joel Boamah contributed a 60-yard interception-return touchdown. Western Kentucky lost 34-13 at New Mexico State. A pick-six helped put WKU behind 20-6 at halftime; the Hilltoppers finished with 349 total yards, including 314 passing, but struggled to convert that passing production into points.  

QB matchup: Skyler Locklear vs. Rodney Tisdale Jr. Locklear has completed 70.2% of his passes, averages 8.32 yards per attempt and has a 4-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He was hurt during the SMU game but is expected to remain the starter. Tisdale threw for 309 yards and four touchdowns against Mercyhurst, then approximately 314–315 yards with no touchdown passes against New Mexico State. 

Key injuries: . Missouri State also has an older questionable listing for WR M. Cope, which does not confirm his current status. WKU’s October 2 listings flag WR K. Hutchinson, TE G. Reimer and RB A. Boyd as questionable with undisclosed injuries.  

2025 matchup: Western Kentucky won 27-22 at Missouri State on September 27. The listed line was WKU -4.5, making the five-point victory a narrow cover; the game stayed Under 59.5.  

Offense vs. defense: WKU’s run defense is allowing 6.22 yards per carry, the highest figure in the FBS in the cited preview. Missouri State can attack that weakness with Breezy Dubar, who averages 5.2 yards per carry, while using Locklear’s accurate passing to keep the defense balanced. On the other side, Tisdale has shown he can accumulate yards, but WKU’s latest game demonstrated problems with protection, rushing support and finishing drives. 

SOUTH FLORIDA AT UTSA — 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

Records: South Florida 4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS; UTSA 4-1 SU, 2-2 ATS on the cited ledger, which records four lined games.  

Last game recap: South Florida lost 17-13 at home to Temple. The decisive breakdown was allowing Temple to drive 96 yards in 10 plays for the winning fourth-quarter touchdown. Michael Van Buren Jr. completed 17 of 32 passes for 205 yards, without a touchdown or interception. UTSA survived Rice 16-14, scoring all its points before halftime. Owen McCown finished 19-of-29 for 148 yards, no touchdowns and one interception.  

QB matchup: Michael Van Buren Jr. vs. Owen McCown. Summing Van Buren’s five game logs gives 922 passing yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions, completing 77 of 123 attempts—62.6%. McCown has 1,010 passing yards, seven touchdowns and two interceptions, completing 68.2%. McCown has the stronger touchdown production, while Van Buren has protected the ball but struggled to generate explosive offense.  

Key injuries: UTSA’s offensive line is the main concern. Ben Rios’ injury has disrupted left guard, and Jonah Miller is returning from injury at tackle. Local reporting describes continued uncertainty in the line rotation. South Florida has an older questionable listing for WR A. Branch, but I could not confirm an updated game designation. 

2025 matchup: South Florida won 55-23 in Tampa on November 6, covering -13.5; the game went Over 66.5. However, that Bulls offense was led by Byrum Brown, so last year’s result has limited value for evaluating the current quarterback matchup. 

Offense vs. defense: USF allows 14.6 points and 312.4 yards per game, but its offense has produced only 27 combined points over the last two games. UTSA’s rushing attack averages 173.8 yards and 5.1 yards per carry, providing an alternative when the passing game struggles. USF needs to stop that run game and force McCown into longer passing downs behind an unsettled line.  

SOUTH ALABAMA AT ARKANSAS STATE — 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2

Records: South Alabama 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS; Arkansas State 2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS on Covers’ full-game ledger. Some other services exclude FCS betting results and display fewer ATS decisions.  

Last game recap: South Alabama beat ULM 52-35, producing 570 total yards: 321 passing and 249 rushing. Jared Hollins threw three touchdown passes, including scoring plays of 72 and 69 yards. Arkansas State lost 23-20 at Louisiana on a field goal as time expired. Trey Owens completed 20 of 31 passes for 206 yards and a touchdown; Chauncy Cobb caught eight passes for 65 yards, and Solomon Baggett rushed for 51 yards and a score.  

QB matchup: Jared Hollins vs. Trey Owens. Hollins’ three listed appearances total 779 passing yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions. He is coming off his most explosive performance, completing 14 of 19 against ULM. Owens has 1,043 passing yards through five games and threw one touchdown without an interception in each of his last two outings.

Arkansas State lists RB Kenyon Clay questionable with an ankle injury and RB D. Spencer out for the season with a knee injury. South Alabama’s published list includes season-ending absences for WR K. Marion, WR B. Barnes and TE M. Lynch. WR D. White also has an out listing, but its note refers to the previous game and does not establish Thursday’s status.  

2025 matchup: Arkansas State won 15-14 in Mobile on October 14. The Red Wolves also won the previous Jonesboro meeting 18-16 in 2024, so the last two meetings were decided by a combined three points. 

Offense vs. defense: South Alabama’s balance is its principal strength. Its three featured backs have combined for 871 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns, and the Jaguars average nearly 34 minutes of possession. Arkansas State averages 24 points and 348.4 yards offensively, while allowing 23.4 points and 399.6 yards. South Alabama’s concern is coverage: ULM threw for 355 yards last week despite losing.