Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Monday, September 14, 2026 — 8:15 p.m. ET
Arrowhead Stadium — ABC/ESPN

Odds and line movement

Last year’s matchups: Nov. 16: DENVER (+4.5) over Kansas City 22-19; Denver (-13.5) over KANSAS CITY  20-13.

Quarterback matchup

Denver: Bo Nix

Nix returns after the ankle injury he suffered during last season’s playoffs. 

Denver has given him a potentially stronger receiving group by adding Jaylen Waddle alongside Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims and Pat Bryant. Waddle’s speed is especially important against Steve Spagnuolo’s pressure packages because he can turn a quick completion into an explosive play. Nix ran for 356 yards with five TDs last season so he’s a pretty dangerous runner He threw for 3,931 yards with 25 TDs and 11 INTs in the regular season.

The main questions for Nix:

• Can he recognize Kansas City’s disguised coverages before the snap?
• Can he avoid negative plays when Spagnuolo brings pressure?
• Will Sean Payton allow him to attack downfield, or emphasize quick throws and ball control?
• How much mobility will Nix display after his ankle rehabilitation?

Kansas City: Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes is returning from the ACL and LCL injuries he suffered last December. He practiced fully during game week and carries no final game designation. Kansas City has indicated that the offense will not be restricted because of his knee.

Before the injury, Mahomes completed a career-low 62.7% of his passes in 2025, throwing for 3,587 yards and 22 touchdowns. Kansas City upgraded the backfield with Kenneth Walker III, which could reduce the number of obvious passing situations Mahomes faces.

The critical betting question is not whether Mahomes can operate the offense—it is whether he can extend plays and escape pressure with his usual effectiveness against one of the NFL’s strongest pass rushes.

Injury issue: Denver had 68 sackes last season, which was just four shot of the NFL record set by the 1984 Chicago Bears. The Chiefs will start Kahil Benson at left tackle, who is an undrafted rookie right tackle from Indiana. He replaces Josh Simmons, a 2025 first-round pick, who has missed more than three weeks with a lower back injiry. 

Key matchups

1. Denver’s pass rush vs. Kansas City’s left tackle

This is the matchup most likely to decide the game.

Chiefs starting left tackle Josh Simmons is out with a back injury. Benson is expected to make his first NFL start while protecting Mahomes’ blind side. Denver can attack that spot with Nik Bonitto, supported by Jonah Elliss and Que Robinson.

Kansas City may respond with:

• Quick passes to Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice.
• Running back screens.
• Chips from tight ends and backs.
• A heavier rushing attack with Kenneth Walker.
• Moving pockets to keep Mahomes away from Denver’s edge rush.

If Denver consistently creates pressure without blitzing, the Broncos should have a legitimate opportunity to win outright.

2. Denver’s receivers vs. Kansas City’s secondary

Denver’s addition of Waddle changes the spacing of its offense. Kansas City must account for Waddle’s speed while also defending Sutton’s size and contested-catch ability.

The Chiefs traded cornerback Trent McDuffie during the offseason and will be without defensive back Chamarri Conner. Cornerback L’Jarius Sneed practiced on a limited basis Saturday but does not carry a game designation.

Denver should test Kansas City outside early. If the Chiefs must use additional safety help over Waddle, Sutton and the underneath receivers should find more favorable matchups.

3. Kansas City’s running game vs. Denver’s front

Walker gives the Chiefs an explosive runner capable of punishing light defensive boxes. Establishing him would slow Denver’s pass rush and keep Mahomes out of long-yardage situations.

4. Chris Jones vs. Denver’s interior offensive line

Jones, a future Hall of Famer defensive takle, can destroy a game plan from the inside. Denver cannot allow him to force Nix backward into the edge rush. Payton will likely use movement, quick throws and protection adjustments to prevent Jones from dominating obvious passing situations.

One injury worth monitoring: Jones did not practice Saturday because of a calf issue, although Kansas City did not give him a final game designation. Official Chiefs injury report

Meaningful ATS and totals trends

• Denver is 8-4 ATS in the last 12 meetings with Kansas City.
• The Broncos are only 4-8 straight-up over those 12 games..
• The Under is 8-4 in the last 12 meetings.
• The last six recorded meetings have stayed Under, although the January 2025 and December 2025 games require context because Kansas City did not use Mahomes.
• Denver won both 2025 meetings, 22-19 and 20-13, but the second came against a depleted Chiefs team led by Chris Oladokun rather than Mahomes.
• The 2025 game featuring Mahomes finished with only 41 points, consistent with the recent lower-scoring nature of this series.

Prop Bet of the Night:

(odds from DraftKings)

Anytime TD scorer

Travis Kelce +200

Courtland Sutton +240