We’re finally here. That’s Week 1 of preseason, and unlike the regular season, these games can be odd at times, which is why having a strategy before betting on these games is crucial to winning.
1)Quarterback Depth. Unlike the regular season, you really don’t need to know who Josh Allen or Matthew Stafford’s backup is. But in the preseason, those guys aren’t playing, so not only are their backups key, but the third-stringers as well. Some starters will play a series or two, so it’s important to find that information. Here are a couple of recent stories about QBs in the preseason.
A)Kyle Trask was signed by Carolina because rookie Haynes King injured his hamstring in the Hall of Fame Game last week. King was the third-stringer behind Kenny Pickett and Trask, who has familiarity with OC Brad Idzik, seems to be the second-half QB with King likely out of preseason.
B)In Detroit, Teddy Bridgewater has retired again, so the Lions signed veteran Joshua Dobbs to be Jared Goff’s backup. Dobbs was Drake Maye’s backup last season in New England.
C)In Indianapolis, Anthony Richardson Sr. is having issues in camp, which means he’s fighting to be the backup behind Daniel Jones. That means Riley Leonard has a chance to win that job if he plays well in camp and preseason.
2)Find out who actually wants to win the game. Coaching philosophy isn’t that difficult to figure out except for the new coaches. But many will give out their game plan during the week when they mention these factors:
- How many snaps starters will receive (1 quarter or less is normal)
- Whether the coach has historically played aggressively in preseason
- Whether the team is evaluating a QB competition
- Whether young players are fighting for roster spots
- Whether the team has a joint practice schedule instead.
3)Offensive line depth. If there is a QB battle (Minnesota for example), most of the key offensive linemen might play early on just to make sure the QBs have time to throw. Some teams have awful depth on the line, and if that’s the case, it will be tough for them to produce anything offensively. There are plenty of sites that rate each line, including PFF.
4)Totals can be tricky. Most are low, but they’re sensitive to personnel.
The under is usually the play unless there is a QB competition or the defensive depth is weak or the backup QBs are experienced and nearly as good as the starters.
A mediocre offense can be an under candidate if you’re looking at two teams likely to cycle through inexperienced QBs.
5)Wait to bet until key information is available. Wednesday for Thursday games, Thursday for Friday games, etc. Rushing to bet even if the lines are soft may not be wise. Wait until you know:
- QB Rotations
- Expected Start snaps
- Injuries
- Players being rested
- Comments from the coach
- Beat-reporter observations
- Whether key rookies will play
If you don’t know these factors about each team, skip the game.
6)Key rules of betting preseason games
A)Don’t bet without knowing the QB rotation.
B)Don’t automatically bet the under just because it’s fashionable.
C)Look for teams with three playable QBs.
D)Shop for the best number as every half point matters.
E)Keep stakes smaller than regular season wagers.
________________________________________________________________________________________
Upcoming and Current Events at ATS:
- Week 1 of Preseason Football starts this week! Preseason NFL action begins as ATS enters its 34th football season. Early Bird discounts are still available!
- UFC Fight Night on Aug. 8 from Las Vegas, featuring Gamrot vs. Salkilld. UFC wins FOUR straight weeks. Average clients up over $7,500!
_____________________________________________________________________