Don’t Overreact to Day 1 of the NCAA Tournament

Don’t Overreact to Day 1 of the NCAA Tournament

What an opening day for the NCAA Tournament on Thursday. Dogs were 11-5 on Thursday and four double-digit seeds won outright. Of course, the biggest upset didn’t happen, but No. 16 Siena covered easily and lost by just six points on Thursday.

The biggest upset was No. 12 High Point defeating No. 5 Wisconsin by one. But when it comes to the NCAA Tournament, the best teams are usually the end. The one team I’d be very worried about is Duke without Patrick Ngongba II, who is their rim protector and might not player in their next round against TCU. Duke looked lost without him against No. 16 Siena defensively as Cam Boozer was exposed defensively in the paint.

Here are some things to ponder today and in the second round.

*Public Overreaction to Upsets: Underdog wins round 1 and the public money floods them in round 2.


*Line Movement: Lines move extremely fast during Tournament Play due to massive volume.


*Betting Too Many Games: You don’t need to bet every game. Be VERY selective.


*Falling for Media Narratives: Sportsbooks know narratives drive bets and often shade lines accordingly.


*Upsets are normal and it happens every year so don’t panic and think that every 12 is going to win outright.

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*WON UNC WILMINGTON +5.5 VS YALE 7:00PM 68-67
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*WON SOUTH FLORIDA +4.5 VS LOUISVILLE 1:30PM 79-83
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2-3 “rated” picks emailed each day all the way through the NCAA Championship Game on April 6th –

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If you want to test our Daily Program in basketball, we offer two plays today as part of our Basketball Financial Package for $25.  Don’t miss these easy winners and check out why we like the pick below. 

 

Daily Program Plays

First Game

*Our side has been on a hot streak

*Our opponent has had issues defending the three-point shot

*Our side is in the top 20 in forced turnovers per game.

*Our opponent has been underachieving most of the season.

Second Game

*Our side has been rolling since January.

*Our opponent will struggle to rebound with them.

*Our opponent has offensive issues

*Our side has one of the best and most experienced post players in the tournament.

*Our side has more talent and a player who can change the game on offense.

*Our opponent will have trouble keeping up with our side’s speed and pace of play.

*Our side is an elite offensive team with an experienced coach

*Our opponent will struggle on the defensive end against an elite offense.

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