How do Metrics and Analytics impact Betting on Baseball?
Modern-day baseball is a little like modern-day basketball. In hoops, a long two-pointer is considered a bad shot. In baseball, getting on base is just as important as getting a hit, though not with runners in scoring position. OBP, OPS, wRC+, xERA and FIP are just some of the terms used to improve baseball teams. Bettors can use stats to estimate probabilities more accurately than relying on feel, intuition, win/loss record, or winning (losing streaks) alone.
1)There is more to evaluate a pitcher other than ERA.
A)xERA is expected ERA based on the quality of contact.
B)FIP is field independent pitcher. That focuses on strikeouts, walks and home runs.
C)K/BB ratio. That is strikeout-to-walk efficiency.
D)WHIP-Most fantasy players know (a basic category). It’s walks + hits per inning pitched.
2)There is more to hitting than just batting average.
A)OPS. That’s on-base plus slugging.
B)wRC+. Weighted runs created adjusted for park effects.
C)BABIP-Batting average on balls in play.
D)Hard-hit rate. This is where velo comes into play. This is the percentage of batter’s batted balls (line drives, ground balls and fly balls) that leave the bat with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher.
E)Barrel percentage. This is an advanced metric that measures how often a hitter makes ideal, high-quality contact.
A team that is struggling to win, but has strong contact metrics, might be undervalued in terms of odds.
3)Bullpen strength
The one factor in betting on baseball that can scare most bettors is the word bullpen. Bullpen analytics are often critical for full-game bets. The key factors to look at bullpen strength are:
A)Bullpen ERA.
B)Workload and bullpen fatigue.
C)Save Conversion rates.
D)Leverage performance.
4)Matchup Analysis:
This is where you can really get into the weeds. There are some teams that struggle against high-velocity fastball.
Some hitters produce more against certain pitcher types.
On Friday, we’ll look at some of the best pitchers and hitters based on these types of metrics listed above.
5)EV (Expected Value)
When comparing probability estimates against sportsbooks’ odds, you may see a model that says a team has a 60% chance to win. However, odds may imply only 50% that may represent positive expected value.
This is the foundation of analytical betting:
A)Compare against market odds.
B)Bet only when value exists.
C)Estimate true probability.
Sites like Baseball Savant, FanGraphs, MLB.com, ESPN.com, Baseball Reference, Baseball Prospectus, Rotowire, Stathead, and Baseball Theater.
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