Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints — Monday Night Football Preview

Monday, October 5, 2026

Last-game recaps

Atlanta: Won 35–14 at Green Bay, September 24. Michael Penix Jr. returned from a knee injury and completed 18 of 25 passes for 256 yards, one touchdown and one interception, without taking a sack. Bijan Robinson powered the offense with 29 carries for 194 yards and two touchdowns; Brian Robinson Jr. added 50 rushing yards and a touchdown.  

New Orleans: Lost 35–27 to Las Vegas, September 27. Shough finished 29 of 42 for 255 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. All four touchdown passes went to tight ends. However, the Saints committed four fourth-quarter turnovers, and their final five possessions ended with a punt, fumble, interception, fumble and fumble. New Orleans led 27–22 entering the fourth quarter before the game unraveled.  

Quarterback matchup

2026 regular-season statistics entering this game. Penix has played one game; Shough has played three.

Penix: His first outing provided explosive passing without requiring a high volume of attempts. The test now is whether he can maintain that efficiency if New Orleans slows the run and puts him in obvious passing situations. One strong start is encouraging, but it is a limited basis for judging consistency.

Shough: He has produced across three games, including 410 passing yards at Detroit and a 27-for-34 performance in the win at Baltimore. His larger body of work gives New Orleans the more demonstrated passing production, although the sack total raises concern about sustaining drives against pressure. 

Atlanta offense versus New Orleans defense

The most favorable statistical matchup for Atlanta is on the ground:

Those numbers favor Atlanta’s preferred approach, and the Saints’ injuries increase the concern. 

Drake London enters with 15 receptions for 274 yards, giving Atlanta a proven target outside. On the other side, Chase Young has 3.5 sacks and becomes particularly important with New Orleans missing other edge defenders.  

New Orleans offense versus Atlanta defense

Atlanta has allowed only 143 rushing yards on 52 attempts through three games—approximately 47.7 yards per game and 2.8 per carry. That creates a difficult matchup for a Saints backfield missing Travis Etienne Jr.  

New Orleans’ best route looks like the passing game. Chris Olave has 27 catches for 375 yards, while Juwan Johnson has 15 catches for 173 yards and three touchdowns. Atlanta is without top cornerback A.J. Terrell Jr.; C.J. Henderson replaces him in the starting lineup.  

My matchup analysis: Kellen Moore should look for quick completions, move Olave around the formation and use tight ends to keep Shough out of repeated long-yardage situations. Atlanta should aim to pressure with its front four while keeping enough defenders in coverage to limit easy throws.

The Saints still need some rushing production. Even modest gains would help keep Atlanta from treating every snap as a pass. But repeatedly running into unfavorable looks would waste downs and increase the pressure on Shough.

Key injuries

Werner’s availability is especially significant. With Elliss already out, losing another linebacker would further strain New Orleans’ ability to handle Atlanta’s rushing attack and backfield receiving options. Granderson and Jennings being unavailable also reduces edge depth.

For Atlanta, Terrell’s absence gives New Orleans an opening outside. Deablo’s status matters against the Saints’ tight ends, and Ebukam’s availability could help Atlanta generate pressure without blitzing.

Meetings from the 2025 season

Atlanta swept the season series last year, but the underdog covered both games. The January matchup belongs to the 2025 NFL season.  

ATS trends and betting context

The verified recent records are:

• New Orleans: 8–2 ATS over its last 10 games.
• Atlanta: 5–5 ATS over its last 10 games.
• Series underdog: 4–0 ATS in the last four meetings.
• Last 10 meetings: 5–5 ATS for either team and 5–5 Over/Under.