Odds for Week 1 in the NFL
The schedule is finally out, and it’s one of the most overhyped and overrated things in sports. Yet, for bettors, we get an early look at the games in Week 1. While lines are going to change some from now until September 9, they should be similar, barring a major injury to a quarterback or key player. The rosters should also be similar, so picking Week 1 this early is a risk, but if you can find good odds and have an itch to bet a few months before the season, do so with caution.
(odds from DraftKings)
Wednesday, Sept. 9
New England at Seattle, 8:20pmET (NBC)
Seattle -3.5 ML: -192/New England +160
Total: 44.5 points
The Super Bowl champ usually gets the first game, though this is on a Wednesday. This time, it’s a Super Bowl rematch with Mike Vrabel back after his rough summer of trying to duck questions about his relationship with former NFL reporter Diana Russini.
Thursday, September 10
San Francisco vs. LA Rams, Melbourne, Australia, 8:35pmET Netflix
LA Rams -2.5. ML: LA Rams -148/49ers +124
Total: 48.5.
An early NFC West matchup. Will the 49ers finally be healthy? The Rams upgraded their secondary and are the favorite to win the Super Bowl.
Sunday, Sept. 13
Chicago at Carolina, 1pmET (FOX)
Chicago -2.5. ML: Bears -135/Panthers +114
Total: 44.5.
Two young quarterbacks battle, with Caleb Williams taking on Bryce Young. The Panthers made huge strides last season, and it’s a slight surprise that they are home dogs.
Tampa Bay at Cincinnati, 1pmET (FOX)
Cincinnati -3.5. ML: Cincinnati -198/Tampa Bay +164
Total: 50.5
Joe Burrow is finally back to lead a team that could be a favorite in the AFC. The question for Cincy is twofold: Can Burrow stay healthy, and do they have the defense to contend? Tampa Bay still has Baker Mayfield, but future HOFer Mike Evans is gone.
Baltimore at Indianapolis, 1pmET (CBS)
Baltimore -3.5. ML: Ravens -185/Colts +154
Total: 49.5.
Baltimore has a brand new coaching staff under Jesse Minter and a new EDGE in Trey Hendrickson. Indy brought back WR Alex Pierce. The biggest question for the Colts is whether QB Daniel Jones will be completely healthy, returning from a torn Achilles tendon. Running is also a big part of his arsenal.
Buffalo at Houston, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Buffalo -1.5. ML: Bills -112/Texans -108
Total: 45.5.
These teams met in Week 12 as the Houston defense was able to take charge in a 23-19 win. Buffalo hasn’t won a game in Houston dating back to 2006. While the Houston defense is elite, they need a rebound season from QB C.J. Stroud.
New Orleans at Detroit, 1pmET (FOX)
Detroit -7. ML: Lions -325/Saints +260
Total: 48.5.
The Saints are in rebuild mode, but showed promise going 4-1 with rookie QB Tyler Shough. The addition of Travis Etienne Jr. at running back can’t hurt. Detroit is a team in flux, a little, and will need improvements on the offensive line to show that they are still in the mix.
NY Jets at Tennessee, 1pmET (CBS)
Titans -3. ML: Titans -170/Jets +142
Total: 39.5.
This is not an exciting Week 1 game. However, the Jets could be very good on the defensive side with rookie David Bailey on the EDGE and a solid defensive line. The Titans helped QB Cam Ward by adding rookie WR Carnell Tate and beefing up the offensive line.
Atlanta at Pittsburgh, 1pmET (FOX)
Pittsburgh -3. ML: Steelers -175/Falcons +145
Total: 42.5.
Pittsburgh still doesn’t have a veteran quarterback, but most expect Aaron Rodgers to return (who else?). Mike McCarthy takes over for long-time coach Mike Tomlin, and that’s the big story in the Steel City. Atlanta adds Tua Tagovailoa, who could show something with a new team, but he’s not the long-term answer at quarterback.
Cleveland at Jacksonville, 1pmET (CBS)
Jacksonville -7. ML: Jaguars -190/Browns +235
Total: 40.5.
The Browns have another new head coach. Todd Monken comes over from Baltimore and needs to figure out the quarterback situation between Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders. The Jags don’t have to worry about Trevor Lawrence. They didn’t add a whole lot, save for depth, though running back is a bit of a concern with Trevor Etienne gone to New Orleans.
Arizona at LA Chargers, 4:25pmET, (CBS)
LA Chargers: -11.5. ML: Chargers -625/Cardinals +455
Total: 45.5 points.
Arizona might be the worst team in football on paper. Kyler Murray is gone and Jacob Brissett is the likely starter at QB, with rookie Carson Beck vying with Gardner Minshew for the backup spot. The Chargers should be contending in the AFC West. The key is the offensive line and whether they have the depth to withstand the injuries from last season.
Green Bay at Minnesota, 4:25pmET (CBS)
Green Bay -1.5. ML: Packers -125/Vikings +105
Total: 44.5.
An NFC North matchup, as the Packers have the edge at quarterback with Jordan Love. EDGE Micah Parsons is not expected to play due to injuries for the Packers. He might be happy he doesn’t have to chase Kyler Murray, a likely starter at quarterback for the Vikings.
Miami at Las Vegas, 4:25pmET (FOX)
Las Vegas -3. ML: Raiders -175/Dolphins +145.
Total: 41.5.
The Raiders are rare favorites, and that’s likely because they drafted Fernando Mendoza at QB as the top pick overall. Kirk Cousins is the backup but might start the opener if Mendoza is not ready. Miami picked up Malik Willis at quarterback and he doesn’t have the weapons that Tua Tagovailoa has but he does have RB De’Von Archane back to a rebuilding Dolphins offense.
Washington at Philadelphia, 4:25pmET (FOX)
Eagles -5.5. ML: Eagles -238/Commanders +195.
Total: 46.5
The Eagles are trying to avoid the controversies of last season, especially on the offensive end, where AJ Brown is expected to be traded before the season. Washington addressed their defense in the draft, but they need a healthy Jayden Daniels to get back in the mix of the NFC East.
Dallas at NY Giants, 8:20pmET (NBC)
Dallas -2.5. ML: Cowboys -130/Giants +110
Total: 48.5.
Another NFC East matchup, this is about John Harbaugh’s first game in blue instead of purple. There are injury issues concerning WR Malik Nabers (knee), and if he’s not ready, they’ll have to rely on a defense that’s loaded with talented pass rushers. Dallas had major issues in the secondary, and if that’s solved, they could push the Eagles. At some point, the window for Dak Prescott is going to start to close.
Monday, Sept. 14
Denver at Kansas City, 8:15pmET (ESPN/ABC)
KC -2.5. ML: Chiefs -155/Broncos +130
Total: 42.5.
Both quarterbacks are coming off injuries. Box Nix (ankle) should be ready for Denver. The Broncos added WR Jaylen Wadde from Miami, which can’t hurt. Patrick Mahomes is coming off a knee injury and might not be ready. The Chiefs have improved their secondary so they should be back on track.
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Big UFC card from the APEX in Vegas this Saturday!
- ATS has won 5 of the last 7 weeks. *ALLEN VS COSTAOne of the better analytical points from early-week MMA betting coverage is that UFC markets are still less efficient than NFL/NBA markets because of information asymmetry and recency bias.The common public mistakes this week:*Overvaluing recognizable UFC veterans*Overreacting to recent knockout wins*Ignoring grappling advantages*Betting favorites too early before line movement settles