Second Round NBA Playoffs Preview
We’re now in the second round of the NBA Playoffs, after a wild first round that saw three series go seven games. Injuries to key players have also had impacts with Kevin Durant (Houston), Franz Wagner (Orlando), Jayson Tatum (Boston), Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo, Ayou Dosunmo (Minnesota), Austin Reaves and Luka Doncic (LA Lakers), Aaron Gordon missing time, just to name in the first round.
On Monday, we have two games in both conferences. I’ll preview the series, not the games, with *series prices (seven games) given along with stats and analysis.
*-series prices from DraftKings.
7)Philadelphia (50-40, 47-40-3 ATS, 41-49 O/U) vs. 3)NY Knicks (58-31, 47-41-1 ATS, 41-48 O/U).
Series Prices: NY Knicks (-270)/Philadelphia +220.
Head-to-Head matchups: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS. (Knicks won last two, including on Feb. 11, 138-89).
Key Injuries: none.
Analysis: When it comes to Philadelphia, everything revolves around Joel Embiid. The former MVP center appears to be back to his old self, though he appeared to bang knees late in their win over Boston on Saturday night. However, he’s listed as probable for Game 1. Their series win over Boston (without Tatum on Saturday), was their first playoff series win over the Celtics since 1982. They also became the first No. 7 seed to beat No. 2 since the first round became a best-of-seven format. Boston couldn’t handle Embiid, who missed the first three games recovering from an appendectomy. Boston was up 3-1 and looked like they were going to cruise, but the 76ers outscored them 328-290 in the final three games. Philly shot 47% from the field in their last three games, but it was their defense, led by Paul George and Kelly Oubre, that limited the Celtics to just 40.7% shooting. But this series is about Tyrese Maxey (26.9ppg in first round, Brunson averaged 26.3ppg).
The Knicks, just like Philly, won their last three games, but in a more dominant fashion. They beat Atlanta in six games and were down 2-1 in the first three games before going on a historic run, beating the Hawks 114-98, 126-97, and an unreal 140-89 on the road on Thursday. In that game, the Celtics opened up a 47-point halftime lead and led by as many as 61 points in the third quarter. The Knicks were led by more than Brunson as OG Anunoby had an excellent series with 21.5 points and 8.7 rebounds, while shooting 61.1% from the field. New York just bullied the younger and smaller Hawks in the last three games. Can they do the same thing against the Sixers?
Series Pick: Philadelphia +220 in 6/ Exact Game prop +250 (6 games)
6)Minnesota (53-35, 41-47 ATS, 39-49 O/U) vs. 2)San Antonio (66-22, 49-37-2 ATS, 37-51 O/U)
*Series Prices: San Antonio -1200/Minnesota +700
Head-to-Head matchups: T-Wolves win two of three games SU and ATS. The last game took place on Jan. 17 at San Antonio with the Spurs winning 126-123.
Key Injuries: Minnesota: G Anthony Edwards (knee) is questionable for Game 1. DiVincenzo (Achilles) is out. A. Dosunmo (calf) is out at least in Game 1.
Minnesota pulled off a miraculous first-round win over No. 4 Denver, winning in six, including a 110-98 victory at home on Thursday. Edwards (knee) missed the final two games, while Ayo Dosunmo (calf) missed Game 6 and DiVincenzo missed the final two games. Yet, Terrence Shannon Jr. came off the bench with a career-playoff high 24 points and Jaden McDaniels (17.8ppg, 6.8rpg first round) was outstanding on both ends in the first round. Dosunmu (21.8ppg playoffs) has been great, but he’s not Anthony Edwards (18.5pp playoffs, 28.8ppg reg season). Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid will have their hands full with Victor Wembanyama, but they did a great job on Nikola Jokic in the first round, holding him to 44.6% shooting from the field and 19.4% from 3-point range.
Wemby and the Spurs come into this series allowing 44.8% from the field (4th) overall, but when he’s on the floor, nobody impacts the defense more than he does, which is why he was named Defensive Player of the Year. The Spurs were shocked in Game 2 against Portland at home and then won three straight to take the series in five. They won the last three games by a combined 52 points. This is more than a one-man team. De’Aaron Fox (20.2ppg, 6.8apg in playoffs) has been rejuvenated with this team, while Stephon Castle (19.8ppg, 6apg, 40.7% 3pt), Devin Vassell (12.6ppg, 5.8rpg) and Julian Champagie (10.2ppg, 61.9% 3pt) have been more than just role players in the playoffs and all season long. This is a very deep team, but the key is Wembanyama (21ppg, 8.8rpg, 4bpg) and his ability to stay healthy.
Series Picks: Spurs 4-1 +225.
Tuesday, May 5
4)LA Lakers (57-31, 49-38-1 ATS, 44-44 O/U) vs. 1)Oklahoma City (68-18, 41-44-1 ATS, 47-39 O/U)
Series Prices: Lakers +900/OKC -1600
Head-to-Head matchups: OKC 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS.
Key Injuries: Lakers: Luka Doncic (hamstring) is expected to miss the first two games, at least. OKC: SF Jalen Williams (hamstring) is out for the first game.
The Lakers won the first three games against Houston and then lost the next two before winning Game 6 with ease on Friday, winning easily by 20 against a team that was playing without Kevin Durant. LeBron James had to carry the team at 41 for most of the series, but the Lakers did get Austin Reaves back from injury. He averaged 18.5 points on 37% shooting (16.7% 3pt) in two games. He’ll need to get back to his regular-season form, when he averaged 23.3 points and 5.5 assists. James averaged 20.9 points and 7.2 assists in the regular season, but he turned it up in the playoffs, averaging 23.2 points, 8.3 assists and 7.2 rebounds. The big key is the health of Luka Doncic, who averaged 33.5 points, 8.3 assists and 7.7 rebounds in the regular season. It doesn’t look like he’ll return in this series, or at least in the early part, which is not a good thing.
OKC is also dealing with a player who has a hamstring injury in Jalen Williams. He’s arguably the second-best or third-best player on the team, but has played in just 33 games this season, averaging 17.1 points and 5.5 assists (20.5ppg in 2 playoff games). But when you have great depth, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren, you can overcome certain injuries, at least now. SGA has been fantastic as always, averaging 33.8 points and 8.0 assists in four games as they are coming off dominating Phoenix in four games, covering two of the games. Holmgren adds 17.3 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks in the four playoff games. With Williams likely out, they need more offensively from a handful of guards led by Ajay Mitchell (15ppg), Alex Caruso, Isiah Joe, Lu Dort and Cason Wallace. The Thunder are a handful on offense, but it’s their defense that will be a key as they rank first in the NBA in field goal defense (43.8%), but just 24th in three-point defense (38.8%). The other question is whether they put Dort (6-4, 220) or Holmgren (7-1, 210) on James.
Series Picks: OKC 4-0 +120.
4)Cleveland (57-33, 37-52-1 ATS, 45-43 O/U) vs. 1)Detroit (64-25, 47-41-1 ATS, 41-48O/U)
Series Prices: Detroit -120/Cleveland +100
Head-to-Head matchups: Detroit was 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS
Key Injuries: Detroit: G Kevin Herter (thigh) is out at least Tuesday.
These are two pretty grind-it-out teams that both needed seven games to get by the first round. Cleveland won Game 7 against a feisty Toronto team that was missing their leading scorer, Brandon Ingram. Detroit won in seven games over Orlando, which was leading the series 3-1 at one point, and blew a 24-point lead in the third quarter in Game 6. They were also playing without their second-leading scorer, Franz Wagner.
The Cavs struggled against the No 5 seeded Raptors, which was understandable. But they blew them away in Game 7 as they rely on Donovan Mitchell to score (23.3ppg in the playoffs), but he hasn’t shot the ball well (43.7% in six games, 35.3% 3pt). But when you have James Harden (21ppg) and Evan Mobley (19ppg, 8.8rpg), you don’t need 40 from Mitchell every night. What they do need in this series is situational players like Max Strus (41% 3pt), Dennis Schroder (42.4% FG), Sam Merrill (36.4% 3pt) and Jaylon Tyson (41.2% FG) to come up large against a big, physical Pistons team.
Detroit had its own struggles against the Magic, but found a way to win its final three games. At times, they’ve been too reliant on Cade Cunningham, who averaged 32.5 points per game in the playoffs. Tobias Harris (20.2ppg, 7rpg) did give the Pistons a lift when they needed it. But Jalen Duren, who averaged 19.5ppg and 10.5 rebounds in an All-Star effort as a 22-year-old, was averaging under 10 points per game until Game 7, when he produced 15 points and 15 rebounds. The Pistons didn’t look like a No. 1 seed against a talented but erratic Magic team. However, this is a franchise led by a 24-year old Cunningham and a 22-year old Duren. Ausar Thompson, who averaged 9.9 points and 5.7 rebounds with two steals per game in the regular season, is just 23. They also just won their first playoff series in 18 years.
Series Pick: Cleveland +100 and Cleveland 4-2 +380
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