When you’re picking the early conference tournaments (mid-majors), you can also pick the winner of the tournaments and get a pretty good price from some of the books like DraftKings. For example, DK has the Atlantic Sun or ASUN favorite as Austin Peay +205. Central Arkansas is listed at +250, despite both teams finishing 15-3 in the conference.

But when you look at KenPom, Central Arkansas is slightly stronger at 155 than Austin Peay at 164. If you’re looking for a dark horse, Queens (190 KenPom) pushes the tempo (61^st) and has won four of five games, with the only loss coming at Central Arkansas on Feb. 28. Take Queens as the best bet at +400.

In the Sun Belt, Troy is 12-6 (+170) and then there are six teams at 11-7, tied for second. South Alabama (+1100) is the team to look out for in that conference tournament. They are 8-6 on the road. They’ve also had some very tough losses, falling in overtime to Texas State and by four at Marshall. They also have one of the league’s most explosive scorers in Chaze Harris, who averages 18.9 points per game and gets to the line early and often. Troy is the favorite in this conference, but they’ve won just five of their last 10 games. If you want a long shot, go with USA. 

In the Missouri Valley, Belmont (+155, 55 KenPom) is the heavy favorite, but watch out for Northern Iowa (+475, 80 KenPom). They are only 11-9 in the MVC, but they lost to Belmont by just five on the road. This is another team that seems to play better on the road, having won three of their last four. Illinois State (+450) just beat Belmont at home, but they’ve been up and down this season. Go with UNI.

The bottom line is that there is some very good profit-earning potential in the mid-major tournaments. Research is essential for winning, whether it’s just picking the game or the winners of the tournament.

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