Sweet 16 Preview-Thursday version. 

Thursday, March 26

West Region, 9:45pmET from San Jose

(3) Illinois 26-8, 19-15 ATS, 15-5 B10, KenPom: 6;  ORTG: 2nd ; DRTG: 24th; ADJT: 276; SOS NET: 23rd; NCSOS Rating: 90th; Team Effective Field Goal%: 55.3% (35th); Opponent Effective Field Goal%: 47.5% (33rd). Total Rebound %: 57.1% (7^th) NCAA Tournament Odds: +1700

VS.

(2) Houston 30-6, 18-18 ATS, 14-4 B12. KenPom: 4; ORTG: 11; DRTG: 4; ADJT: 351. SOS NET: 25; NCSOS Rating: 157. Team Effective Field Goal%: 52.2% (143rd). Opponent Effective Field Goal%: 46.0% (14th). Total Rebound %: 52.7% (43^rd).  NCAA Tournament Odds: +900

Analysis:

This is going to be a physical game. Illinois averages 84.7 points per game and can score inside or out. They’ve made 11 three-pointers per game to rank 9^th in the nation. Houston can defend the three (31.4%) and is an elite defensive team overall (39.5% FG). However, can they make enough shots? That’s always the question, but they may have the best player on the floor in freshman Kingston Flemings. Illinois also has a slight rebounding percentage. Illinois dominated VCU (76-55) and Penn (105-70) to get here. Houston also had no issues with Idaho (78-47) and dominated Texas A&M 88-57 to reach another Sweet 16. The Cougars have the experience led by Emmanuel Sharp, who has played 142 games. The Illini have tremendous size led by the Ivisic brothers and a veteran guard in Kylan Boswell.

South Region, San Jose, 7:10pmET

(11) Texas 21-14, 19-15 ATS, 9-9 SEC;  KenPom: 32; ORTG: 15; DRTG: 81; ADJT: 222; SOS NET:11; NCSOS Rating: 320; Team Effective Field Goal%: 53.9% (71st); Opponent Effective Field Goal%: 50.7% (142nd); Total Rebound %: 54.6% (17^th). NCAA Tournament Odds: +25000

VS.

(2) Purdue 29-8, 17-20 ATS, 13-7 B10 KenPom: 8; ORTG: 1st; DRTG: 34; ADJT: 324; SOS NET: 6th; NCSOS Rating: 48th; Team Effective Field Goal%: 58.1% (10^th); Opponent Effective Field Goal%: 52.3% (230th). Total Rebound %: 55.8% (9^th). NCAA Tournament Odds: +1200

Analysis: It’s tough to picture Texas as a Cinderella, but as the 11^th seed, they’ve had the most difficult road to reach the Sweet 16. They earned that seed by losing three straight and five of six coming into this NCAA Tournament. They had to edge NC State by two in the First Four, followed by a 79-71 win over BYU on Thursday. On Saturday, they upset Gonzaga by six. Purdue dominated Queens College by 33, before getting by Miami-Fla on Sunday by 10. Purdue is a very efficient offensive team led by pick-and-roll monster guard Braden Smith, who is the all-time assist leader. When they are making threes, they are tough to beat, but they have defensive issues. The Boilermakers allow teams to shoot 44.6% (194^th) from the field and 33.94% (219^th) from long range. Texas has similar defensive numbers but they have a head coach in Sean Miller who could be the x-factor here. They also have a forward Dailyn Smith (17.8ppg, 7.6rpg) and Matas Vokietaitis (7-0, 255), who had 17 points and nine rebounds in their win over Gonzaga.

South Region, 7:30pmET, Houston

(5) Iowa 23-12, 20-15 ATS, 10-10 B10; KenPom: 22; ORTG: 26; DRTG: 30; ADJT:361; SOS NET: 31; NCSOS Rating: 336; Team Effective Field Goal%: 56.3% (19^th); Opponent Effective Field Goal%: 52.7% (251^st); Total Rebound %: 51.1% (119^th). NCAA Tournament Odds: +10000

VS

(4) Nebraska 28-6, 19-15 ATS, 15-5 B10; KenPom: 12; ORTG: 49; DRTG: 6; ADJT: 231; SOS NET: 37; NCSOS Rating: 317; Team Effective Field Goal%: 55.6% (27th); Opponent Effective Field Goal%: 47.7% (36^th); Total Rebounding %: 50.3% (165^th). NCAA Tournament Odds: +5000

Analysis: We have a Big 10 matchup between one team that finished .500 (Iowa) and another team that finished tied for second in the regular season (Nebraska). The Cornhuskers had never won an NCAA Tournament in their history before they beat Troy by 29 and Vanderbilt by two on Saturday. Iowa beat Clemson by six on Friday and then stunned Florida 73-72 from Tampa on Sunday. Iowa shot 51% from the field, led by Tavion Banks, who had 20 points, while star guard Bennett Stirtz added 13 points and five assists. The Cornhuskers got here because they defend the three well, ranking 15^th in the nation (29.8%). That will be tested against the Hawkeyes, who shoot 35.3% form beyond the arc and 49% overall. These teams met on March 8 in Lincoln, with the Cornhuskers winning 84-75 in overtime. They also met at Iowa on Feb. 17^th with the Hawkeyes winning 57-52.

West Region, 9:45pmET, Houston

(4) Arkansas 28-8, 23-12 ATS, 13-5 SEC; KenPom: 19; ORTG: 6; DRTG: 53; ADJT: 17; SOS NET: 16; NCSOS Rating: 80; Team Effective Field Goal%: 56.5% (16^th); Opponent Effective Field Goal%: 51.4% (180th); Total Rebounding %: 51.2% (114^th). NCAA Tournament Odds: +3500

VS

(1)  Arizona: 34-2, 21-14 ATS, 16-2 B12, KenPom: 1, ORTG: 4th; DRTG: 3rd; ADJT: 66; SOS NET: 12^th; NCSOS Rating: 102; Team Effective Field Goal%: 54.9% (44^th); Opponent Effective Field Goal%: 44.8% (1st); Total Rebounding %: 57.8% (5^th). NCAA Tournament Odds: +320

Analysis: Arizona is the top seed for a reason. They’ve looked strong in their first two games, dominating LIU by 34 and then beating a tough Utah State team by 12. Arkansas beat Hawaii by 19 and caught a break by facing No. 12 High Point on Saturday. High Point shocked Wisconsin in the first round and then gave the Razorbacks a tough game (94-88), covering the 11.5. The Razorbacks were led by star freshman guard Darius Acuff Jr., who had 36 points and six assists against High Point. Arizona has a rare senior guard in Jaden Bradley, who had 18 points against Utah State. They also have a 7-2, 260-pound beast in the middle in Motiejus Krivas, who had 11 points, 14 rebounds, and three blocks against the Aggies. John Calipari loves a challenge, and he has one here against one of the best defenses in the nation and an elite rebounding team. Arkansas can shoot the three (38.3%) and will need to use its high-octane offense to get the upset.

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