College Football Previews for Friday and Saturday (odds are consensus). For more trends on all games, check out Vol. 5 of the ATS Weekly Gaming Review.
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 25
Army at Temple — 4:00 ET
Opening line: Army -3 | Total 50
Current: Army -3 Total 48.5.
Last games: Army comes in after a bye and is quarterback-driven option attack. Temple has been more competitive offensively than the 27-9 loss to Penn State two weeks ago initially suggested.
QB matchup: Army’s quarterback is much more important as a runner than his passing yardage indicates. Cale Hellums rushed for 1,223 yards last season and has 142 this season, while passing for 150 yards. Temple’s quarterback Ajani Sheppard (52.6%) has the conventional advantage through the air. and has 99 rushing yards. Co-starter QB Jaxon Smolik (69 rush, 116 passing yds) is questionable with an injury.
Offense vs. defense: Temple’s linebackers and safeties have to play assignment football. Against Army, one missed option responsibility can turn a four-yard gain into 40. Conversely, Army’s secondary can be vulnerable if Temple protects long enough to attack outside.
2025 meeting: Army (-6.5) edged Temple 14-13 last season.
Navy at UAB — 7:00 ET
Opening: Navy -10.5 | 53
Current: Navy approximately -6/ 51.5. That’s one of the largest point-spread adjustments of the week.
Last game: Navy continues to lean on its option-based rushing offense. UAB needs a much cleaner defensive performance after struggling to consistently get opponents off the field.
QB matchup: Navy’s quarterback Braxton Woodson (296 rushing yds) was injured in their last game against FIU. They lost that game 38-30 as a 4.5-point favorite on Sept. 12. They were off last week. If Woodson can’t go, Jackson Gutierrez is a solid repalcement. He has three rushing TDs and two passing Tds. UAB is coming off a 21-14 loss last week at Louisiana as a 6.5-point dog. QB Ryder Buton is completing 56.9% of his passes for 478 yards with two TDs and three picks (7 sacks).
Injuries: Navy has multiple offensive skill players listed questionable, including RBs L. Walker and J. Chalmers.
2025 meeting: Navy beat UAB 38-24.
Northwestern at No. 5 Indiana — 8:00 ET
Opening: Indiana -22.5/47.5
Current: Indiana -20/ Total 50.5.
QB matchup: Aidan Chiles vs. Josh Hoover
Northwestern QB Aidan Chiles: through two games available in the current stat log, Chiles is 31-of-46 (67.4%) for 514 yards, 4 passing TDs and no interceptions, plus three rushing TDs. Against Colorado last week he was outstanding: 17-of-22, 241 yards, 3 passing TDs, plus two rushing TDs.
Indiana QB Josh Hoover directs one of the nation’s more efficient attacks. He is completing 72.5% of his passes for 649 yards with 10 TDs and no picks. RB Turbo Richard leads the Hoosiers with 315 yards and four TDs.
Last games: Northwestern destroyed Colorado 41-7. Chiles accounted for five touchdowns. Indiana shut out Western Kentucky 38-0.
Offense vs. defense: . Chiles is averaging 11.2 yards per pass attempt, so Indiana can’t simply assume the Wildcats will play a conservative ball-control game. Indiana’s defense, however, has been exceptional at preventing sustained scoring drives.
2025: They did not meet last season; Indiana won the 2024 meeting 41-24.
Clemson at California — 10:30 ET
Open: Clemson -1.5/48
Current: Clemson approximately pick | Total 50.5.
QB matchup: Clemson’s quarterback situation remains more unsettled than expected entering the season. Cal counters with Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who has 7 TDs and just two INTs with 866 passing yards . Clemson freshman Tait Reynolds is completing 64.5% of his passes for 415 yards with one TD and one INT. Christopher Vizzina (1TD, 2INT) has been relegated to the backup role due to injury and performance.
Last game: Clemson escaped North Carolina in a weather-disrupted game 28-20. Cal destroyed FCS Wagner 49-7 to go 2-1.
Offense vs. defense: Clemson’s defensive line is the best individual unit in this matchup. If Cal protects, the Bears’ receivers should have opportunities against Clemson’s secondary. If Clemson gets home with four rushers, Cal’s offense becomes much less dangerous.
2025: No meeting.
SATURDAY
No. 1 Texas at No. 14 Tennessee — Noon
Opening: Texas -5.5/57.5
Current: Texas -4 | Total 55.
QB matchup: Arch Manning vs. Faizon Brandon
This is one of the best quarterback matchups of the weekend. Manning already faced Ohio State’s defense and has the better experienced supporting cast. He returns to Tennessee, where his uncle Peyton became a start in the mid-90s. He’s passed for 664 yards with seven TDs and two picks this season. Brandon brings considerably more athleticism than a typical freshman quarterback and has helped Tennessee reach 3-0. He’s passed for 552 yards and six TDs with just 64 passes thrown.
Last games: Texas beat UTSA30-6after the emotional 24-23 comeback against Ohio State the week before. Tennessee remained unbeaten with another comfortable performance, beating Kennesaw State 42-9.
Offense vs. defense: Tennessee must run well enough to prevent Texas from turning Brandon into a pure pocket passer. If Texas can consistently create second-and-9 and third-and-7, its edge rush becomes a major advantage.
Texas’ own issue is establishing a better running game. If Tennessee can make Manning throw 35-40 times in Neyland Stadium, it changes the complexion of the game.
Key Trends: Tenn is 3-7 ATS last 10 overall.
Colorado State at UTSA
Current: UTSA -13.5 | Total 58
Last games: Colorado State lost 41-23 to BYU. Hauss Hejny went 6-of-10 for 80 yards and a TD before CSU also used Kaden Farrar and Darius Curry. UTSA lost 30-6 at No. 1 Texas, struggling to create explosive offense.
QB matchup: Hauss Hejny vs. UTSA’s starter. Hejny has shown upside—he threw for 325 yards and four TDs against Southern Utah. He’s compeleted 64.4% of his passes for 619 yards with 10TDs and an INT in three games. He is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. Owen McCown is the QB for UTSA with 559 yards, 4 TDs and one INT.
Offense vs. defense: CSU averages roughly 459 yards per game, but UTSA’s defense has been much stronger against the pass than the run. CSU’s most attractive matchup is therefore on the ground: UTSA has been allowing roughly 231 rushing yards per game.
ATS: CSU is 0-3 ATS; UTSA 1-2 ATS.
t a defense stepping down from BYU.
San Diego State at Toledo
Current: Toledo -3 | Total 52.
Last games: SDSU lost 26-13 to James Madison. QB Jayden Denegal went 18-of-33 for 209 yards, one TD and two INTs. Toledo comes off a 49-48 win over Temple in overtime.
QB matchup: Jayden Denegal vs. Toledo’s starter. John Alan Ritcher. Denegal has thrown only three TDs with four INTs over his three main games, and his efficiency has dropped substantially against FBS defenses. Ritcher threw for 429 yards with four TDs and no picks against Temple. He has 877 yards passing with 9 TDs and a pick this season.
Offense/defense: Toledo’s opportunity is through the air against an SDSU team that wants games played slowly and physically. SDSU needs its front to keep Toledo behind schedule.
Trends: SD State is 5-0 ATS last 5 vs. MAC. Toledo is 5-0 Over last 5 home games.
UNLV at Akron
Current: UNLV -13.5 | Total: 53
Last games: UNLV’s most recent game was an ugly 44-6 loss to North Texas. Akron enters 2-1 after an improved start but lost their lsat game at Minnesota 41-7.
QB matchup: Jackson Arnold vs. Akron’s starter. Arnold has thrown for 601 yards, 2 TD and no INTs over his three games, but managed only 194 yards and no TDs against North Texas. Cibastian Broughton completed 9 of 13 against Minnesota and is completing 80.3$ of his passes for 380 yards with four TDs and also has 170 rushing yards.
Offense/defense: UNLV needs to rediscover its running efficiency and keep Akron from sitting in coverage. Akron’s defense is much more manageable than North Texas, but the Rebels cannot assume explosive plays return automatically.
Key injuries: UNLV has several WRs questionable, including Keyshawn McGee, De’Zhaun Irvin Jr. and Tyler Stellato.
ATS: UNLV 1-2 ATS; Akron 2-1 ATS.
Sam Houston at No. 11 Texas Tech
Current: Texas Tech -34.5 | Total 55.5.
Last games: Sam Houston destroyed FCS Nicholls 59-0. Texas Tech beat ranked Houston 28-26.
QB matchup: Luke Locke vs. Will Hammond. Locke has been excellent: 973 passing yards and 9 TDs against one INT through three games, including 322 yards and four TDs last week. Hammond passed for 257 yards and a TD, while rushing for 30 yards last week against Houston. Thomas Castellanos, the Boston College, FSU and UCF transfer, will work out of some packages.
Offense/defense: Sam Houston is averaging 346 passing yards per game but only 109 rushing. Tech can therefore concentrate on disrupting Locke. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed passing yards but has been considerably better against the run.
ATS: Fascinating contrast: Sam Houston is 3-0 ATS, Texas Tech 0-3 ATS despite being 3-0 SU.
Trends: TT is 4-0 ATS last 4 vs CUSA. SHU is 6-1 Under last 7 after a SU win.
Colorado at Baylor
Current: Baylor -10 | Total 55.5.
Last games: Colorado was routed 41-7 by Northwestern; Julian Lewis went 19-of-29 for 168 yards, a TD and two INTs. Baylor beat Louisiana Tech 36-19, with Nate Bennett going 21-of-24 for 253 yards and three TDs.
QB matchup: Julian Lewis vs. Nate Bennett. Lewis has flashed a huge ceiling—366 yards and four TDs against Weber State—but Baylor’s Bennett is coming off an extraordinarily efficient 87.5% completion performance.
Offense/defense: Colorado has to protect Lewis. Baylor’s offense should attack a Buffalo defense that just allowed Northwestern to dictate the entire game. Deion Sanders wasn’t thrilled with some of his players’ reactions to their blowout loss to Northwestern and he cut three.
ATS: Colorado 1-2 ATS; Baylor 2-1 ATS.
Trends: Baylor is 4-0 Under last 4 after an ATS loss. CU is 7-3 ATS last 10 in September.
Virginia Tech at Boston College
Current: Virginia Tech -14 | Total 48.5.
QB matchup: Virginia Tech’s passing offense is averaging roughly 331 yards per game and completing more than 78% of its passes. VT QB Ethan Grunkemeyer is the first QB since 2018 to throw for 300 yards in consecutive games for the Hokies. They beat Maryland last week 35-26 on the road to improve to 3-0. BC barely beat FCS Maine 22-16 to improve to 2-1. QB Mason McKenzie has struggled this season, passing for 648 yards (58.8%) with three TDs and five INTs.
Offense/defense: VT’s passing game faces a BC defense surrendering only about 172 passing yards per game, so this is strength against strength. BC’s vulnerability has been more pronounced versus the run.
Key injury: BC RB Byron MacCormack III is out with a shoulder injury.
ATS: Virginia Tech is 4-0 ATS in its last four as a favorite; Under is 4-0 in BC’s last four overall.
Wake Forest at No. 16 Louisville
Current: Louisville -13 | Total 57.5.
Last games: Wake lost 33-20 to Miami despite QB Gio Lopez throwing for 312 yards and three TDs. Louisville beat SMU 41-31.
QB matchup: Gio Lopez vs. Lincoln Kienholz. Lopez has thrown for 537 yards and four TDs in his last two, and his mobility complicates the pass rush. Loiusville ran for 265 yards against SMU including 164 from Keyjuan Brown. Kienholz is a dual-threat QB, who is averaging 51ypg on the ground with four total TDs.
Offense/defense: Wake averages approximately 435 yards, including nearly 298 passing, while Louisville has allowed roughly 245 passing yards per game. That’s Wake’s best route to scoring.
Injury: Wake remains thin at receiver.
ATS: Louisville is 3-0 ATS this year; Wake 1-2 ATS. The Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
Illinois at No. 7 Ohio State
Current: Ohio State -27.5 | Total 53.5.
Last games: Ohio State annihilated Kent State 59-3. Illinois enters 2-1 and beat FCS SIU 48-10 last week.
QB matchup: Katin Houser vs. Julian Sayin. Houser’s previous experience at Ohio Stadium came as Michigan State’s starter in 2023; Illinois WR Collin Dixon already has seven TD catches, leading the nation. OSU WR Jeremiah Smith has a program record of 2,958 yards receiving in 32 games. OSU QB Saying has 839 yards passingwith six TDs and one pick. Houser is completing 74.1% of his passes for 758 yards with 8 TDs and 2 picks.
Offense/defense: Illinois averages more than 405 yards and 7.2 yards/play. Ohio State’s defense allows only 212 yards and 3.3 yards/play, including 126 passing.
2025: Ohio State won 34-16 on the road as a 14.5-point fave.
ATS: Ohio State is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 vs. Illinois and 3-0 ATS this season.
Ball State at Kent State
Current: Kent State -3 | Total 50.5.
Last games: Ball State lost 51-15 at Liberty. Kent State was routed 59-3 at Ohio State.
QB matchup: Keldric Luster vs. Kent State’s starter. Luster has thrown for 438 yards with 3 TD and 2 INT through his three games, including an 84.4% completion performance against Stonehill. Dru DeShields is completing 56.7% of his passes for 351 yards with one TD and three picks. He has some running ability, rushing for 107 yards and two TDs this season.
Offense/defense: Kent is allowing roughly 448 yards and seven yards/play. Ball State’s offense has struggled overall, but this is easily its softest FBS defensive matchup.
ATS: Both are 1-2 ATS; both have gone Over in all three games. Kent is 7-0 Over last 7 in September. BST is 2-10 ATS last 12 in Sept and 1-5 ATS last 6 road games.
South Alabama at Kentucky
Current: Kentucky -20.5 | 54.5.
Last games: South Alabama beat Ohio 41-36. QB Jaylen Hollins went 13-of-20 for 192 yards and a TD. Kentucky shocked Texas A&M 31-21.
QB: South Alabama has used Bishop Davenport and Jaylen Hollins. Davenport has 450 passing yards and three TDs in his two starts; Hollins played last week. KY QB Kenny Minchey erupted for 252 yards and two TDs against A&M and now has 7 TDs and a pick in three starts.
Matchup: South Alabama averages 230 rushing yards; Kentucky allows just 134. If Kentucky controls the Jaguars’ run game, the talent gap grows dramatically.
ATS: Kentucky 2-1 ATS; USA 1-2 ATS.
(Watch out for the letdown fact0r)
UCLA at Maryland
Current: UCLA -1.5 | Total 57
Last games: UCLA beat Purdue 52-38. Nico Iamaleava threw for 276 yards and three TDs. Maryland enters off a 35-26 home loss to Virginia Tech.
QB matchup: Nico Iamaleava vs. Malik Washington. Nico has thrown for 427 yards in his last two, while UCLA’s bigger weapon has been the run game. Wayne Knight has 345 yards with eight TDs, while rushing 8.8 yards per carry. Washington threw for 359 yards and three TDs in the loss to the Hokies.
Offense/defense: UCLA averages a staggering 287 rushing yards per game; Maryland’s defense has allowed only 69 rushing yards per game and 2.1 per carry.
Injury: Maryland RB DeJuan Williams is out.
Last year: UCLA beat Maryland last year at home 20-17 but didn’t cover the 3.5.
Key Trends: UCLA is 5-1 Over last 6 conference games and Md is 0-5 ATS last 5 conference games.
Notre Dame at Purdue
Current: Notre Dame -28 | 558.
Last games: Notre Dame beat Michigan State 27-10. Purdue lost 52-38 at UCLA.
QB matchup: CJ Carr vs. Ryan Browne. Carr is among the national Heisman contenders and Notre Dame is averaging about 278 passing yards at 9.7 yards per attempt. Brown is completing 73.3% of his passes for 1,024 yards with seven TDs and a pick.
Offense/defense: Purdue allows 447 yards/game and 6.9/play, including 207 rushing. Notre Dame should be able to stay balanced rather than make Carr carry the offense.
2025: Notre Dame won last year 56-30 at home.
ATS: Notre Dame is 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings; Purdue’s last four as an underdog have gone Over.
Northern Illinois at Georgia State
Current: Georgia State -10.5 | 56.
Last games: NIU lost 42-17 at Arizona. QB Treyson Dickens threw for 228 yards and a TD. Georgia State lost 44-30 at UCF.
QB: Treyson Dickens vs. Cameran Brown Dickens has completed 47-of-64 over the last two games but NIU’s offense remains extremely inefficient. Brown is completing 67.8% of his passes for 725 yards with 4 TDs and 3 INTs.
Matchup: NIU averages just 256 yards and 68 rushing yards per game. Georgia State’s defense allows 310 total yards. If NIU can’t run, Georgia State can sit on short passing concepts.
Injury: NIU TE Grayson Weber questionable; Georgia State RB D’Marcus Murray Jr. questionable.
Key Trends: GST is 7-1 Over last 8 after an ATS win. NIU is 4-0 ATS last 4 vs. Sun Belt.
Hawai’i at Wyoming
Current: Hawai’i -3 | Total 44.
Last games: Hawai’i beat New Mexico State 29-19 in its last outing. Wyoming lost at Central Michigan 24-10. They are looking for their first FBS win.
QB matchup: Micah Alejado vs. Tyler Hughes Alejado threw for 346 yards on 33-of-45 against NMSU and is one of the highest-volume passers in the country. Hughes is struggling, completing 58.7% of his passes for 452 yards with 2 TDs and 5 INTs. He has also rushed for 156 yards and a TD.
Key injury: Alejado is questionable with an arm injury. Wyoming QB Trey Hasselbeck is out for the season with a knee injury.
Matchup: Hawai’i wants 40+ pass attempts; Wyoming wants the opposite—run, altitude, field position and a low possession count.
Last year: Hawaii beat Wyoming 27-7 at home.
Key Trends: Wyo is 0-7 ATS last 7 overall. Haw is 10-4-1 ATS last 15 conference games.
Boise State at Western Michigan
Current: Boise State -7 | Total 49.5
Last games: Boise beat FS South Dakota 38-24. Maddux Madsen went 22-of-31 for 208 yards and two TDs. WMU beat Rice 28-21, with Broc Lowry completing 14-of-20.
QB matchup: Maddux Madsen vs. Broc Lowry. Madsen has 610 yards, 6 TD and no INTs; Lowry has 417 passing yards, four TDs and no INTs, plus major value as a runner.
Matchup: Boise averages 258 rushing yards. WMU allows 158. Western’s best counter is Lowry’s QB-run element keeping Boise from attacking downhill.
UConn at Miami (Ohio)
Current: Miami OH -3.5 | Total 51.5
Last games: UConn beat Southern Miss 48-20 on the road last week. MIO fell at Cincinnati 35-31 in the Victory Bell but covered the 14.5.
QB: Kalieb Osbourne is completing 65.2% of his passe for 635 yards with six TDs and a pick. He’s also rushed for 152 yards and four TDs. Miami-Ohio QB David McComb is completing 62.2% of his passes for 809 yards with five TDs and a pick.
ATS: UConn 2-1 ATS; Miami 2-1 ATS.
Key Trends: MIO is 5-1 ATS last 6 home games. UConn is 5-0 Over last 5 road games.
Oklahoma at No. 2 Georgia
Current: Georgia -14 | Total 44.5.
Last games: Oklahoma survived New Mexico 14-6. John Mateer went 19-of-25 for 238 yards, two TDs and two INTs. Georgia hammered Arkansas 45-17.
QB matchup: John Mateer vs. Gunner Stockton. Mateer has 652 yards, six TD and three INT and through three games. He’s also a very dangerous runner. Stockton has been extremely efficient and adds legitimate rushing value. He’s completing 84.4% of his passes with 9 TDs and no picks, while rushing for 100 yards.
Matchup: Oklahoma’s protection is the concern. Georgia can rush four and leave seven in coverage; Mateer cannot afford the two-turnover type of performance he had against New Mexico.
Injuries: Oklahoma WR Tory Harris is out. Georgia RB Nate Frazier is questionable
ATS: Georgia 4-1 ATS in its last five.
No. 4 Ole Miss at No. 21 Florida
Current: Florida -3 | Total 58.5.
Last games: Ole Miss beat LSU 32-24; Trinidad Chambliss threw for 363 yards and two TDs. Florida won at Auburn 44-39.
QB matchup: Trinidad Chambliss vs. Aaron Philo. Chambliss has 924 passing yards and seven TDs through three games. Philo is completing 73.4% of his passes for 721 yards with six TDs and two INTs. He also has two rushing cores.
Matchup: Florida has to pressure Chambliss without consistently selling out with blitzes. Ole Miss punishes man coverage. Florida’s run game is the counter to Ole Miss’ tempo.
2025: Florida beat Ole Miss last season 34-24.
ATS Trends: Underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
New Mexico at New Mexico State
Current: New Mexico -11.5 | 57.5.
Last games: New Mexico gave Oklahoma everything it wanted in a 14-6 loss. NMSU lost 29-19 at Hawai’i.
QB matchup: New Mexico has rotated Trey Fa’avae and Luka Moga; passing is secondary to a run game producing 187 yards per game. Trey Hedden leads NM Stte with 781 passing yards with 5 TDs and 3 INTs.
2025: New Mexico won 38-20 at home laying 15.5.
ATS: New Mexico is 3-0 ATS and 7-3 ATS over its last 10. NMSU is 2-1 ATS.
Matchup: NMSU must stop the run first. Last year it allowed New Mexico 132 rushing and 344 passing yards.
TCU at UCF
Current: TCU -3 | 48.5.
Last games: TCU beat Arkansas State 31-7. Josh Craig threw for 337 yards and three TDs. UCF beat Georgia State 44-30.
QB matchup: Josh Craig vs. Kenyon Jenkins/AJ Barnett III. Craig has 903 yards, seven TDs and one INT over three games. Barnett is questionable with a hamstring injury, so Jenkins may start. Jaden Craig threw for 337 yards last week in TCU’s win over Ark State. Ed Small caught 7 passes for 164 yards.
Matchup: TCU’s 290 passing yards/game against UCF’s QB uncertainty is the key imbalance.
Key Trends: UCF is 0-5 ATS last 5 conference games and 4-1 Over last 5 home games.
No. 15 Utah at Iowa State
Current: Utah -8 | 48
Last games: Utah blanked Utah State 33-0. Devon Dampier completed 22-of-32 for 253 yards and two TDs. Iowa State comes in off an open week after the 16-13 Iowa loss.
QB matchup: Devon Dampier vs. Jaylen Raynor. Dampier has been extremely efficient—514 yards and four TDs in his last two games—and is a major rushing threat. Raynor is last among Big 12 in passing yards (434) and last in completion percentage (55.8%). Aiden Flora leads the Big 12 in rushing with 109.3 yards per game to lead the Cyclones.
ATS: Utah is 4-0 ATS in its last four as a favorite.
No. 17 Iowa at No. 18 Michigan
Current: Michigan -5.5 | Total 38.5.
Last games: Iowa shut out Northern Iowa 55-0; Hank Brown was a perfect 12-of-12 for 153 yards and two TDs. Michigan beat UTEP 52-17.
QB matchup: Hank Brown vs. Bryce Underwood. Brown has 473 yards, three TD and no INTs. Underwood offers substantially more rushing explosiveness. He is completing 62.5% of his passes for 504 yards with three TDs and a pick. He also has 156 yards rushing.
Matchup: Iowa averages 268 rushing yards; Michigan allows just 96, 2.7 per carry.
ATS: Iowa is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six road games; Michigan 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
No. 25 Houston at Georgia Southern
Current: Houston -18.5 | 56.5.
Last game: Houston lost at Texas Tech by two on the road last week 28-26. Georgia Southern enters 1-2 after losing to Clemson and Jacksonville State.
QB matchup: Conner Weigman vs. Max Johnson. Weigman threw for 282 yards with 3 TDs and a picks last week. He helps lead a Cougars’ offense that averages 527.3 yards per game. Johnson has thrown for 712 yards with two TDs and a pick. The well-travelled QB had stints at UNC, Texas A&M and LSU.
Injury: Georgia Southern WR Auburn Hollins and RB Tyrell Gibbs are questionable.
Key Trends: Hou is 6-0 Over last 6 in September and 5-0 ATS last 5 vs. Sun Belt.
Vanderbilt at Auburn
Current: Auburn -9.5 | 55.
Last games: Vanderbilt beat NC State 35-31 in one of the craziest endings in college football history; Auburn lost 44-39 to Florida.
QB matchup: Jake Curtis vs. Byrum Brown. Curtis is a freshman who just made his first start. He is 41 of 65 for 547 yards with four TDs and two INTs this season. Brown is an experienced QB who has 756 yards with five TDs and four picks. He also has 180 yards rushing and two TDs.
Injury: Vanderbilt TE Cole Spence questionable with a leg injury.
Last year: Vandy beat Auburn 45-38 in overtime.
ATS: Vanderbilt is 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings; Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
South Florida at Bowling Green
Current: USF -17.5 | Total 49
Last games: USF is 3-0; Bowling Green is 0-3. USF beat FCS Del State 59-17 last week; BG was crushed at Iowa State 55-7, after losing at Nebraska 56-7.
QB matchup: USF quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. is completing 66.3% of his passes for 639 yards with three TDs. He also has two rushing scores. The Falcons have Jay Kastantin with 443 yards passing with 2 TDs and 2 INTs.
ATS: USF 2-1 ATS; BGSU 0-3 ATS.
Key Trends USF is 5-1 Over last 6 road games. BUlls are 5-1 ATS last 6 vs. MAC. BG is 1-8 ATS last 9 overall.
Wisconsin at No. 13 Penn State
Current: Penn State -9.5 | Total 44.5-45.
Last game: Penn State crushed Buffalo 55-13. Wisconsin enters 2-1 after an easy 54-10 win over Eastern Michigan.
QB matchup: Rocco Becht vs. Wisconsin’s starter. Becht provides Penn State with the superior downfield passing dimension. PSU WR Koby Howard suffered an injury in their win over Buffalo. Becht is completing 70.3% of his passess for 751 yards with nine TDs and no picks. Colton Jopseph is completing 63.5% of his passes for 752 yards with five TDs and two picks for the Badgers.
ATS: Penn State is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Under is 7-1 in Wisconsin’s last eight as an underdog.
Nebraska at Michigan State
Current: Nebraska -5.5 | Total 48.5.
Last games: Michigan State lost 27-10 at Notre Dame. Nebraska comes in after beating FCS North Dakota 34-7.
QB matchup: Nebraska’s QB Anthony Colandrea has thrown for eight TD this season. They’ve defeated two subpar MAC teams and an FCS squad, so this is their first test. MSU QB Alessio Miliovojevic has 540 passing yarsd and three TDs this season. Sparty covered last week against Notre Dame and trailed by just seven at the half.
Last year: Nebraska (-12.5) beat Michigan State 38-27 at home.
Key Trends: Nebraska is 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings; Under 4-0 in Michigan State’s last four as an underdog.
Delaware at Virginia
Current: Virginia -19 | Total 52.5.
Last game: Virginia lost to West Virginia 38-27 last week ath ome. Delaware, now an FBS program for the second year, beat Coastal Carolina at home 22-14 last week after playing Vandy competitively (35-26 loss).
QB matchup: Virginia QB Beau Pribula is completing 72.4% of his passes for 514 yard with seven TDs and a pick. He also has 101 rushing yards. Nick Minicucci is completing 57.9% of his passes for 814 yards with five TDs and three picks for the Blue Hens.
Injuries: Virginia has several questionable skill players: WR Derek Newton-Short, TE Luke Ungar, RB Jalen Stevens and WR Tyler Ward.
Key Trends: UVa is 12-2 Over last 14 in September. Del is 5-0 ATS last 5 in September.
James Madison at Old Dominion
Current: JMU -3.5 | Total 51.5.
Last games: JMU beat San Diego State 26-13 last week. ODU has lost twos traight games including last week’s 20-17 defeat at home to ECU.
QB matchup: Camden Coleman vs. Quinn Henicle, whose running ability changes the box count. Henicle has 424 yards pasing with three TDs and two picks. He also has 24 rushing yards with four scores for ODU. Coleman is completing 66.7% of his passes for 474 yards with three TDs and a pick.
Trends: JMU is 5-1 Over last 6 conference games. ODU is 7-0 Under last 7 home games.
Central Michigan at No. 6 Miami
Current: Miami -41.5 | Total 55.
Last game: Miami beat Wake Forest 33-20. CMU comes in after beating Wyoming 24-10 at home.
QB matchup: Darian Mensah gives Miami the overwhelming passing advantage. He broke an ACC record by completing 24 straight passes last week to start the game. He has plenty of offensive weapons though RB CharMar Brown and WR Joshua Moore both suffered season-ending injuries last week. CMU QB Angel Flores rushed for 163 yards last week against Wyooming. He was splitting time with Jadyn Glasser and Marcus Beamon in the first two games.
Matchup: CMU must shorten the game. Miami’s secondary injuries have mattered, but CMU may not possess the passing weapons to exploit them consistently.
Key Trends: CMU is 6-0 Under last 6 overall and 3-8-1 ATS last 12 in September. Mia is 7-0 ATS last 7 non-conf. games.
Louisiana at Charlotte
Current: Louisiana -10.5 | 48.5
Last game: Louisiana beat UAB 21-14. Lunch Winfield completed 15-of-20 for 110 yards. Charlotte lost at App Stae 26-21, but covered the 15.5.
QB matchup: Lunch Winfield vs. Charlotte’s starter. Winfield is completing better than 72% in each of his last two games. He also has 267 rushing yards and five TDs. Cole Gonzalez has 661 yards passing with three TDs and five picks for the 49ers.
Matchup: Winfield’s dual-threat element is more important than his 110 passing yards last week. Charlotte must account for QB run without exposing the secondary.
Key Trends: 49ers are 5-22 ATS last 27 home games.
Kennesaw State at Arkansas State
Current: Arkansas State -6.5 | 52.5
Last games: Kennesaw lost 42-9 at Tennessee; Arkansas State lost 31-7 at TCU.
QB matchup: QB Rickie Collins leads the Owls with 605 passing yards, two TDs and one pick. He also has 133 rushing yards and three TDs. Trey Owens lead Ark State with 593 passing yards, 3 TDs and 4 INTs.
Last year: Ken State beat Ark State 28-21 as a 4.5-point dog.
Key Trends: Ark State is 1-4 ATS last 5 in September.
Southern Miss at Tulane
Current: Tulane -18.5 | 52.5.
Last games: SM fell at home to UConn 48-20; Tulane fell at Kansas State 31-20 but covered the 20.5.
QB matchup: Southern Miss’ Ethan Hampton versus Tulane’s starter. Hampton benefits from a productive rushing game. He’s completing 60% of his passes for 419 yards with 2 TDs and 4 INTs. QB Kadin Semonza is completing just 55.1% of his passes for 517 yards with two TDs and no picks.
Key Trends: Tulane is 7-1-1 Over vs. Sun Belt and 0-6-1 ATS last 7 after an ATS win.
South Carolina at No. 8 Alabama
Current: Alabama -12.5 | 54.5.
Last games: South Carolina lost 41-34 to Mississippi State. Alabama beat FSU 50-36.
QB matchup: LaNorris Sellers vs. Keelon Russell. Sellers’
Key injury: South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers is completing 62.8% of his passes for 648 yards with 5 TDs and 3 INTs with 172 rushing yards. Alabama QB Keelon Russell is completing 68.7% of his passes for 764 yard with four TDs and two INTs, while rushing for 133 yards.
Last year: Alabama (-12.5) over South Carolina 29-22.
ATS: South Carolina is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings; Over 4-0 in the last four.
Kansas State at Cincinnati
Current: Kansas State -6.5 | 53.5.
Last game: K-State beat Tulane 31-20. Avery Johnson went 21-of-28 for 227 yards. Cincinnti edged rival Miami-Ohio 35-31 to win the Victory Bell.
QB matchup: Avery Johnson vs. JC French IV. Johnson’s passing has improved—he has 618 yards and six TDs over his last three games—and the designed QB run remains a major part of K-State’s offense. French is completing 76.5% with 631 passing yards, five TDs and no picks.
Injury: Cincinnati TE Dylan Witherspoon is out.
Key Trends: Cincy is 6-1 Over last 7 in September.
Oklahoma State at West Virginia
Current: West Virginia -1.5 | Total 60.5
Last game: West Virginia beat Virginia 38-27. OK State beat FCS Murray State 59-0 last week.
QB: WVU QB Michael Hawkins Jr. threw for 190 yards in their win over Virginia and rushed for 123. Drew Mestemaker is completing 65.8% of his passes for 882 yards with eight TDs and four INTs for the Cowboys.
Injury: Oklahoma State OG Jason Sexton questionable; TE Owen Hammond out.
Key Trends: Oklahoma State is 5-0 ATS in its last five as an underdog; road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State
Current: Jacksonville State -8.5 | Total 54
Last game: Jacksonville State beat Georgia Southern 31-27 at home after its four-OT loss to Ohio. Middle Tennessee beat Nevada 27-20 last week.
QB matchup: Jacksonville State QB Caden Creel is completing 68.7% of his passes for 871 yards with 8 TDs and 2 INTs. He also has 256 rushing yards and two scores. Roman Gagliano has 616 passing yards with six TDs and one pick for MTU.
Last year: JSU beat MTU 24-21.
Appalachian State at NC State
Current: NC State -14 | 55.5.
Last games: App State beat Charlotte 26-21; NC State is trying to rebound from its horrific Vanderbilt collapse, 35-31 on the road.
QB matchup: NC State QB CJ Bailey fumbled in the end zone last week as the Wolfpack were trying to run out the clock. He’s completing 64.9% of his passes for 640 yards with 4 TDs and 2 INTs. QB Malachi Singleton is completing 74.5% of his passe for 889 yards with five TDs and one INT.
Key Trends: NC State is 6-0 ATS last 6 at home and 5-1 Over last 6 in Sept.
Arizona at Washington State
Current: Arizona -10 | 48.5.
Last game: Arizona beat NIU 42-17. WSU crushed FCS Duquesne 48-7. They have yet to beat an FBS team.
QB matchup: Noah Fifita vs. Caden Pinnick. Fifita completed 31 of 43 for 325 yards and four TDs last week. He’s over 10,000 yards in passing yards. Pinnick is completing 62.7% of his passes for 403 yards with 171 rushing yards. Has 2 TDs and 3 INTs.
Injuries: Arizona WR Giovanni Richardson is out; WR Sam Brennan and RB Chris Warren III questionable.
Key Trends: WSU is 3-1 ATS in its last four against Arizona; Under 4-0 in Arizona’s last four road games.
Troy at Utah State
Current: Utah State -3 | 48.5.
Last games: Troy lost 27-17 at Missouri. Utah State was shut out 33-0 at Utah.
QB matchup: Troy QB Goose Crowder is completing just 53% of his passes for 596 yards with 6 TDs and 1 INT. UTS Grady Brosterhous is completing 52.9% of his passes for 393 yards, 2 TDs and 5 INTs. He also had 133 rushing yards.
No. 23 Texas A&M at No. 10 LSU
Current: LSU -8.5 | Total 51.5.
Last games: A&M was upset 31-21 by Kentucky. LSU lost 32-24 at Ole Miss.
QB matchup: Marcel Reed vs. Sam Leavitt. Leavitt is completing 61.3% of his passes for 732 yards with three TDs and five INTs for LSU. Reed is copmpleting 59.6% of his passes for 632 yards with 6 TDs and 3 INTs.
2025: Texas A&M beat LSU 49-25 on the road.
ATS: A&M is 3-1 ATS in its last four against LSU; Over 5-0 in the last five meetings.
No. 20 Oregon at No. 12 USC
Current: Oregon -3 | Total 62.5.
Last games: USC escaped Rutgers 42-35. Oregon crushed FCS foe Portland State 84-0.
QB matchup: Dante Moore vs. Jayden Maiava. Maiava is tops in the Big 10 in passing yards (1,173) and TDs (12). Moore has nine TD passes and no picks thus far this season, but wants to prove himself after a disappointing and shocking 39-31 loss at Oklahoma State earlier this season.
Key Trends: Oregon is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings; Over 7-0 in USC’s last seven as a home dog.
No. 19 Missouri at No. 24 Mississippi State
Current: Mississippi State -6.5 | 58.5
Last games: Missouri beat Troy 27-17. Mississippi State won 41-34 at South Carolina.
QB matchup: Austin Simmons vs. Kamario Taylor. Taylor threw for four TDs last week and his dual-threat ability is the biggest individual matchup problem Missouri faces. Simmons has completed 69.1% of his passes for eight TDs and a pick.
2025: Missouri won 49-27.
Key Trends: Mississippi State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a favorite; Over 7-3 in its last 10 overall
Florida Atlantic at ULM
Current: FAU -13.5 | 57.5.
Last games: ULM losses to FCS SE Louisiana 38-35. FAU beat FIU 16-10.
QB matchup: Caden Veltkamp vs. Austin Carlisle Veltkamp already has a five-TD passing game this season and gives FAU the clear downfield edge. He’s completing 70.8% of his passes for 864 yards with 6 TDs and 2 INTs. ULM has used two QBs though Austin Carlisle was the main guy against SE LA with 183 yards passing and 76 rushing yards, but had two INTs.
Matchup: ULM has to create pressure. Giving Veltkamp a clean pocket allows FAU’s receivers time to uncover vertically.
Tulsa at Arkansas
Current: Arkansas -7 | Total 50.5.
Last games: Arkansas has been hammered in consecutive games by Utah (43-10) and Georgia (45-17). Tulsa beat East Texas A&M last week 42-0.
QB matchup: Arkansas QBs KJ Jackson and AJ Hill have shared the position with Jackson tossing for 618 yarsd with four TDs and two picks. Tulsa Baylor Hayes did not play last week due to injury. Backup Dexter Williams II therw for 164 yards with three TDs and no picks last week.
Key Trends: Ark is 0-5 ATS last 5 overall and 0-6 ATS last 6 in Sept.
Missouri State at No. 22 SMU
Current: SMU -34.5 | 59.5.
Last game: SMU lost 41-31 at Louisville. Mo State lost at home to Marshall 30-24.
QB matchup: Kevin Jennings vs. Skyler Locklear. Jennings’ scrambling and downfield passing create a major mismatch. He has thrown for 989 yards with nine TDs and four INTs. Locklear is a UTEP transfer who has 597 passing yards with three TDs and one pick.
Last year: SMU (-28.5) beat Mo State 28-10 on the road.
Key Trends: SMU is 5-0 ATS last 5 home games and 6-0 Under last 6 after an ATS loss.
Oregon State at UTEP
Current: UTEP -10.5 | Total 55.5.
Last games: Oregon State lost at Texas Tech earlier in the month. Last week, the beat up on FCS Montana 52-17; UTEP lost 52-17 at Michigan.
QB matchup: Braden Atkinson vs. EJ Colson Jr. Atkinson has been a high-volume passer with 1,122 yards, 8 TDs and one INT; Colson provides 377 passing yards with 6 TDs, 1 INT and 54 rushing yards.
Rice at Fresno State
Current: Fresno State -13.5 | Total 44.5.
Last games: Rice lost 28-21 at Western Michigan. Fresno State beat San Jose State on the road last week 26-10.
QB matchup: Fresno QB Jayden Mandal is completing 64.3% of his passes for 579 yards with three TDs and a pick. Rice depens on their running game as QB Jacurri Brown has 203 passing yards and 258 rushing yards.
Injury: Fresno RB Brandon Ramirez is out for the season.
Georgia Tech at Stanford
Current: Georgia Tech -4.5 | Total 47.5.
Last game: Georgia Tech lost 45-24 to Tennessee in Week 2 and beat FCS Mercery last week 42-11. Stanford fell at Duke 35-7 on the road last week coming off a bye.
QB matchup: Georgia Tech QB Alberto Mendoza therw for 249 yards and three TDs last week at Mercer. Stanford QB Davis Warren has thrownfor 675 yards and two TDs with no picks, but the Cardinal are having troubles scoring.
Key Trends: Over is 5-1 in Georgia Tech’s last six as a road favorite and 4-0 in its last four ACC games.
Air Force at Nevada
Current: Air Force -4.5 | 48.5.
Last games: Air Force lost to ND State at home 38-32. Nevada fell at MTU 27-20.
QB matchup: Air Force’s quarterback’s situation is a bit murky. Liam Szarka threw for 103 yards and rushed for 88 yards last week. But Evan Medders also played, rushing for 31 yards and passed for 47 last week in their option offense Nevada QB Carter Jones has thrown for 348 yarsd with two TDs and two picks in two games.
Matchup: Nevada’s linebackers must play assignment football. Air Force wants to make four yards on first down feel routine.
Minnesota at Washington
Current: Washington -10 | Total 45.5.
Last game: Minnesota beat Akron 41-7; Washington beat up on FCS Eastern Washington 48-16.
QB matchup: Washington QB Demond Williams Jr is completing 70.6% of his passes for 890 yards with five TDs and a pick. He also has 150 rushing yards. Minnesota QB Drake Lindsey is completing 65% of his passe for 747 yards with 4 TDs and a pick.
Key Trends: Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last six overall; Over is 5-0 in its last five as a road underdog.
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The “New” ATS Weekly Gaming Review is available for FREE. Vol. 5 is full of stats, trends, picks, power ratings, key injuries and more.
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