Hart Trophy

Nathan Mackinnon  +350

Vezina

Logan Thompson  +750

Norris 

Rasmus Dahlin +700

Calder

Porter Martone  +280

Rocket Richard 

Leon Draisaitl  +550

Art Ross

Connor McDavid +220

Jack Adams

Pete Debore  +3000

Selke 

+400

The MLB Playoffs begin on Tuesday with four games in the Wild Card round. Let’s take a look at each series, where the winner needs to take two of three games. 

World Series Odds 

(from Draft Kings)

LA Dodgers +200

Milwaukee +600

Tampa Bay +800

NY Yankees +850

Cleveland +1200

Boston +1500

Atlanta +1500

Chicago Cubs +1700

San Diego +2000

Philadelphia +2000

Houston +2500

Chi White Sox +4000

2026 MLB Postseason Preview: All 12 Teams and the Wild Card Matchups

Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Milwaukee and the Los Angeles Dodgers have byes; the other eight teams have at most three games to keep their seasons alive.

That short format makes starting pitching, bullpen availability and lineup health especially important. Here is a look at every team still playing.

American League Wild Card Series

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees

Game 1: Tuesday, 8 p.m. ET

The Yankees won seven of 13 meetings with Boston this season and will host the entire series. Their pitching staff and home-run power give them a strong foundation, but Aaron Judge’s health is the question that could change the matchup most. He missed much of the summer with a rib injury and dealt with a calf issue after returning. New York needs to know how much he can contribute, not simply whether his name is in the lineup.

Boston took a very different route to October. After a 2–8 start and a managerial change, the Red Sox surged in the second half to secure a return trip to the Bronx. Their pitching gives them a chance to keep games close, even if the offense has a quiet night.

Series Odds: NY Yankees -170

Boston +140

(Boston appears to be a nice dog here having won five of the last 8 in this series).

Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros

Game 1: Tuesday, 5 p.m. ET

Houston won the AL West at 81–81 and took five of seven games from Chicago. Yordan Alvarez is its biggest offensive threat, while Josh Hader gives the Astros a late-inning option if they can get him a lead.

The White Sox have one of the postseason’s best turnaround stories after consecutive 100-loss seasons. They finished with a better record and run differential than Houston, but their young lineup faces a difficult assignment on the road. Munetaka Murakami and Colson Montgomery have game-changing power; both also struggled to hit consistently down the stretch.

What to watch: Chicago must create runs before Houston can turn the game over to its late relievers. The contrast between the White Sox’s stronger season-long run differential and the Astros’ head-to-head and home-field advantages makes this series more interesting than the seeds suggest. The winner faces Cleveland.

Series Odds:

Houston -145

Chicago White Sox +125

(Talk about mediocrity. Houston took 7 of the last 9 in this series. Both teams were able to just get make the playoffs but the White Sox had the better record and the better bet at $1108. Still a great story win or lose).

National League Wild Card Series

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

Game 1: Tuesday, 2 p.m. ET

Atlanta won the NL East and went 9–4 against Philadelphia during the regular season. Chris Sale is positioned to lead its rotation after another excellent year, while Ronald Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson supply the lineup’s star power.

Philadelphia clinched the final NL spot on the last day, but doing so complicated its pitching plans. Zack Wheeler worked six innings in the regular-season finale. Jesús Luzardo had only just returned from a shoulder issue, and Cristopher Sánchez will not be on full rest until Wednesday. The Phillies also need more from a bullpen that struggled in September.

Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber can change a game with one swing. For this particular series, though, Philadelphia’s pitching schedule may be as consequential as its offense.

What to watch: Atlanta has the clearer Game 1 pitching setup. Philadelphia has beaten the Braves in previous October meetings, but its current starter availability and bullpen form are more useful measures for this series. The winner advances to face the Dodgers.

Series Odds:

Atlanta -125

Philadelphia +105

(Two NL East rivals meet. Atlanta has won 6 of the last 10 in this series. Have to give them the avantage).

Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres

Game 1: Tuesday, 10 p.m. ET

This is a rematch of the Cubs’ three-game Wild Card victory over San Diego last year. Chicago also won five of six regular-season meetings in 2026. Its offense led the majors in OPS, with Pete Crow-Armstrong supplying a rare mix of power, speed and center-field defense.

San Diego earned home field with a strong finish. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill give the Padres impact bats, and Michael King is lined up for Game 1. Their greatest potential advantage may come late: if the starters hand a lead to the bullpen, San Diego can call on Adrian Morejon and Mason Miller.

What to watch: Chicago’s lineup against the Padres’ starters is the central contest. First-five-inning and full-game prices may point in different directions if San Diego’s bullpen has a sizable edge. The winner moves on to Milwaukee.

Series Odds

San Diego -120

Ch Cubs +100

(The Cubs have the best player in Crow-Armstrong but Chicago’s pitching wores are worrisome. )

The Four Teams With Byes

Tampa Bay Rays — AL No. 1 seed: Tampa Bay won 98 games behind a roster led by Junior Caminero, Drew Rasmussen and Yandy Díaz. The Rays await the Yankees–Red Sox winner. Their strong home record matters, but so will keeping the rotation sharp during the layoff.

Cleveland Guardians — AL No. 2 seed: Cleveland rallied from a losing record in August to win the AL Central. José Ramírez remains the lineup’s focal point, with Parker Messick and Cade Smith among its important arms. The Guardians await Houston or Chicago. Their seed is strong, but their narrow run differential suggests the eventual matchup deserves a close look.

Milwaukee Brewers — NL No. 1 seed: Milwaukee finished with the best record in baseball at 103–59. Jacob Misiorowski, Brice Turang and Jackson Chourio lead a balanced club that also compiled an excellent home record. The Brewers will host the Padres–Cubs winner.

Los Angeles Dodgers — NL No. 2 seed: The two-time defending champions won 100 games and enter with Shohei Ohtani, Tarik Skubal and Yoshinobu Yamamoto among their headline talents. They await Atlanta or Philadelphia. The bye helps set their rotation, while the final health and workload plan will determine just how strong that advantage is.

The Betting Approach

A three-game series can turn on one starting-pitcher decision or one overworked bullpen. Confirm the starters, lineups and available relievers before using a regular-season trend to assess a postseason game. Then compare the matchup with the price being offered: the team most likely to win is not automatically the best bet.

Don’t Chase Last Week’s Winners

One of the biggest mistakes a bettor can make in football is assuming that what happened last week will happen again this week.

By Week 5 in college football and Week 4 in the NFL, the public has seen enough football to start forming strong opinions. Teams that looked dominant suddenly become popular favorites. Teams that were embarrassed get written off. Quarterbacks who threw four touchdowns get upgraded quickly. Defenses that gave up 35 points are treated as if they are permanently broken.

That is exactly when value can start disappearing.

The goal in handicapping is not to identify which team looked best last Saturday or Sunday. The goal is to determine whether this week’s point spread accurately reflects what should happen in the next game.

The Market Adjusts Quickly

Sportsbooks know what everyone just watched.

If a team wins by 30 points in a nationally televised game, the next line is rarely posted as if nothing happened. The market adjusts.

That adjustment may be justified—but sometimes it goes too far.

Suppose a college team was -7 last week and won 42-10. If that performance causes the same team to be priced several points higher than your power ratings would normally justify the following week, you may actually be getting more value on the opponent.

Final Scores Can Be Deceptive

A 35-14 victory does not always mean one team dominated from start to finish.

The score may have been influenced by:

• Defensive touchdowns
• Short fields following turnovers
• Special-teams scores
• Missed field goals
• Fourth-down failures
• Garbage-time touchdowns
• Red-zone variance
• A quarterback leaving early with an injury
• That is why serious handicappers should go beyond the scoreboard.

Look at:

• Yards per play
• Rushing efficiency
• Sack rate
• Pressure rate
• Explosive plays
• Third-down opportunities
• Red-zone trips
• Turnovers
• Time and score situation

How long the starters actually played

A team can win by three touchdowns and still play worse than the final score suggests.

Another team can lose by 10 while actually winning the yardage and efficiency battle.

Those are often the situations where the following week’s betting value develops.

Don’t Automatically Downgrade Last Week’s Loser

The opposite mistake is just as common.

A team gets embarrassed, bettors want nothing to do with it, and the market moves against it.

Sometimes that reaction is correct. If the offensive line was overwhelmed, the quarterback looked incapable of handling pressure and the defense could not generate any resistance, those may be structural problems.

But other poor performances are much more correctable.

There is a major difference between losing because of:

• Four turnovers
• A blocked punt
• Missed kicks
• Dropped passes
• A tipped interception
• A handful of explosive plays
• and losing because you were physically dominated on nearly every snap.
• The first group can produce a good buy-low opportunity.
• The second may represent a real downgrade.

College Football: Be Careful With Blowout Winners

This becomes especially important in college football.

College teams can produce enormous margins against inferior competition. A 52-7 final score catches everyone’s attention, but handicappers have to ask whether that performance tells us anything useful about how the team will perform against a much better conference opponent.

A ranked favorite might have spent two weeks facing weak competition and suddenly be asked to lay 17 points on the road in a conference game.

That is an entirely different assignment.

Conference play changes the handicap because:

• Opponents are more familiar with personnel and schemes
• Coaching staffs often have years of film on each other
• Rivalry intensity can reduce talent gaps
• Road environments become more difficult
• Depth advantages can matter less in shorter-possession games
• A large favorite may be satisfied simply controlling the game rather than running up the score
• That doesn’t mean blindly betting conference underdogs. It means requiring the favorite to justify the inflated price.

NFL: One Great Game Can Distort Perception

In the NFL, the effect can be even stronger because there are fewer games and every result receives enormous attention.

• A team that looked awful in Week 1 may suddenly look like a contender after two wins.
• A team that started 2-0 can be labeled overrated after one bad Sunday.
• Three games are useful—but they are still only three games.

At this stage of the season,  combine:

Preseason evaluation + current performance + injuries + matchup + price

rather than discarding everything we believed in August.

The key is determining which preseason assumptions were wrong and which teams simply experienced short-term variance.

Pay Attention to How the Win Happened

Not all wins should produce the same power-rating adjustment.

A team that wins 28-17 while gaining 450 yards and allowing only 250 probably deserves a meaningful upgrade.

A team that wins 28-17 despite being outgained 430-290 because it returned two interceptions for touchdowns probably deserves a much smaller adjustment.

Those two games look identical in the standings.

They should not look identical in your handicap.

Injuries Can Completely Change the Meaning of Last Week

Last week’s result may also have very little relevance if the personnel situation has changed.

If a team dominated behind a healthy offensive line but loses its left tackle and center during the week, that previous offensive performance becomes much less useful.

The same applies to:

• Quarterbacks
• Starting cornerbacks
• Pass rushers
• Running backs
• Wide receivers
• Interior defensive linemen

This is why injury evaluation should come before blindly extending last week’s performance into the next game.

The Best Bet May Be No Bet

This is another important part of not chasing winners.

You do not have to wager on a team simply because it looked impressive. And you do not have to fade it simply because you believe the line is inflated.

Sometimes the market adjusts perfectly.

If your number and the sportsbook’s number are basically the same, move to the next game.

A disciplined handicapper should be comfortable saying:

“They may win again. I just don’t have value at this price.”

That sentence can save a lot of money over the course of a season.

The Bottom Line

The scoreboard tells you what happened. The betting line asks you what happens next.

Those are two different questions. The most successful approach entering College Football Week 5 and NFL Week 4 is to avoid automatically rewarding last week’s winners or punishing last week’s losers.

• Study how the result happened.
• Decide whether the performance is repeatable.
• Adjust for opponent quality, injuries and matchup.
• Then compare your number with the market.

Don’t chase last week’s winners. Chase this week’s value.