Western Conference Finals Betting Preview
The Western Conference Finals begin on Monday night at 8:30pmET on NBA/Peacock with the OKC Thunder hosting the San Antonio Spurs in Game 1. The Thunder are -6.5-point favorites in Game 1 and the total is 219.5, while the money line is OKC -265/Spurs +215. Let’s take a look at a betting preview of this series.
(odds from DraftKings).
San Antonio (70-24, 53-39-2 ATS, 42-52 O/U) vs Oklahoma City (72-18, 44-45-1 ATS, 50-40 O/U)
Head-to-Head: The Spurs are 4-1 SU this season and 3-1-1 ATS. Three of those games were by 10 or more points. That included a 111-109 win for San Antonio in the NBA Cup semifinals on Dec. 14.
Preview: The Thunder come into this series having swept the Suns and Lakers, covering five of those eight games. OKC has now won nine straight postseason games, heading back to their NBA Finals win over Indiana in Game 7, 103-91 on June 22 of 2025. The key for the Thunder will be how they handle 7-5 Victor Wembanyama, who has a 7-1 Chet Holmgren to try and slow him down. Holmgren did not play well against the Spurs this season, averaging just 12.2 points and 7 rebounds. He averaged 20 points against the Lakers and 19.6 points per game on 60% shooting in the playoffs. He doesn’t have to be the No. 2 scorer because Jalen Williams (20.5ppg in 2 postseason games) is expected back from a hamstring injury. They have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (29.1ppg, 7.1apg in 8 postseason games), the two-time MVP. Ajay Mitchell is averaging 18.8 points and 4.9 assists in the postseason, picking up the slack for Williams.
Key stats: OKC is 1st in Adjusted Net Ratings, 7th in Adjusted Offensive Rating, and 1st in Adjusted Defensive Rating. (stats from DunksandThrees.com). First in defensive field goal percentage (43.9%), 25th in three-point defense (36.8%). Fifth in Field goal percentage (48.6%) and 13th in three-point percentage (37.8%).
The Spurs had a tougher road to get here, beating Portland in five and Minnesota in six games. The main issues right now are injuries with point guard De’Aaron Fox, dealing with an ankle injury. He’s a game-time decision, but Fox is expected to play. He’s been outstanding this season, averaging 18.6 points and 6.2 assists. He’s not a great three-point shooter (34.6%), but they have Stephon Castle (44% in postseason), who is an emerging player, averaging 19.9 points and 6.1 assists in the postseason. Another emerging player is rookie Dylan Harper, who is averaging 13.7 points and 5.1 rebounds, while shooting 56.6% from the field. This will be a battle of the guards with Mitchell, Jalen Williams, SGA, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace and Jared McCain taking on a younger and more athletic group. But the Spurs are still about Wemby, who is a potential MVP, averaging 20.3 points, 10.7 rebounds and 4.1 blocks in the postseason. He’s averaging 18.4 points, 9.2 rebounds and 2.0 assists against the Spurs. The Defensive Player of the Year protects the rim like no other player in the history of the NBA.
Key stats: Spurs are 2nd in Adjusted Net Ratings, 3rd in Adjusted Offensive Rating, and 3rd in Adjusted Defensive Rating. (stats from DunksandThrees.com). Fourth in defensive field goal percentage (44.6%), 8th in three-point defense (34.9%). Sixth in Field goal percentage (48.3%) and 15th in three-point percentage (37.3%).
Conference Finals: OKC -260/Spurs +210
Series Leader (total points): Wembanyama +320
Finals MVP: Victor Wembanyama +230
Series Correct Score: Spurs 4-2 (+550)
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