As a college basketball bettor, you may know about these Bracketology reports that are readily available on ESPN and CBS. They may not be completely accurate, but they are trying to project which teams will make the NCAA Tournament and their seedings, which ones are on the bubble and which ones (usually last four out) have work to do.

The key factor in picking any basketball game this late in the season is motivation. A team that is on the “bubble” of making the tournament should play harder than most. However, be aware that the books tend to amp up some of the lines for teams that are fighting for their lives. 

For example, ESPN’s Bracketology report had UCLA as the 11th seed before they played against Illinois on Saturday. The Bruins were a 6-point dog at home and were able to pull off the upset in overtime. The Illini had just beaten Utah, a team that was considered more on the bubble than UCLA -101-65 as an 8.5-point favorite. The Saturday line wasn’t adjusted that much, but considering Illinois’ dominance, they may have given UCLA a point or two due to motivation, but the Bruins took care of business.

As you take a look at college basketball odds in the final few weeks before the Big Dance, here are some teams on the bubble or close, that should hae serious motivation: Santa Clara (23-6), New Mexico (21-6), TCU (17-10), Cal (19-8), VCU (21-7), Ohio State (17-10), USC (18-9), Indiana (17-10), Virginia Tech (18-10), Seton Hall (19-9) San Diego State (18-8), Missouri (18-9).

At ATS, we do more than just check out Bracketology reports, considering we have a database on each team that analyzes their chances of making the tournament through many factors. We understand which college teams are on the bubble and which teams are underachieving because they have a lot of talented guys making boatloads of money, which creates a disconnect with the rest of the team. Some players are just looking for stats so they can make more money, instead of playing for the goals of the team.

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