Get ready for Week 4 of the NFL and Week 5 of College Football. It all starts on Thursday, with three college football games and one NFL game.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS

Thursday, Oct. 1 — 8:15 PM ET, Prime Video

Opening: Pittsburgh -2.5 | Total 37.5
Current: Pittsburgh  -3 | Total 38.5.  

Last game — Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati 30-27. Aaron Rodgers had his best game of the season, finishing 19-of-34 for 292 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT. Jaylen Warren was also a major factor, rushing 17 times for 127 yards. Pittsburgh averaged about 7 yards per play, a major jump from its first two games.  

Last game — Cleveland

Cleveland beat Carolina 21-18. Deshaun Watson finished 16-of-30 for 144 yards and 2 TDs, while also adding 45 rushing yards on 11 carries. Harold Fannin caught both TD passes. Cleveland was outgained 360-259, but the defense forced Carolina into 4-of-15 on third down and made the late stop.  

QB matchup — Aaron Rodgers vs. Deshaun Watson

Watson through three games: 56-of-82, 68.3%, 587 yards, 5 TD, 1 INT, 104.1 rating, plus 105 rushing yards. His efficiency has been better than Cleveland’s overall scoring output suggests, but he has been sacked nine times.  

Rodgers is coming off that 292-yard, three-TD game and has historically played well on Thursdays: 13-5-1 ATS in Thursday starts.  

Offense vs. defense

The biggest Cleveland problem is the offensive line. C Elgton Jenkins and G Teven Jenkins are both OUT, forcing Luke Wypler into the lineup at center. That is a serious concern against a Pittsburgh pass rush featuring T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith. 

Pittsburgh’s offense has the better matchup if Rodgers gets time. Cleveland’s defense has allowed five WR touchdowns, and Roman Wilson has drawn six targets in every game. 

Key injuries

Pittsburgh: CB Joey Porter Jr. OUT, RB Rico Dowdle OUT, CB Jalen Ramsey QUESTIONABLE with a wrist injury, CB Brandin Echols QUESTIONABLE.  

Cleveland: C Elgton Jenkins OUT, G Teven Jenkins OUT, WR Tylan Wallace OUT. CB Tyson Campbell, S Grant Delpit and OT Tytus Howard practiced fully Wednesday. 

2025 matchup

Cleveland won the last meeting 13-6 at home.  PIttsburgh won the first meeting 23-9 at home.

ATS trends / angle

Cleveland is 7-17-2 ATS after a straight-up win since 2022 and 5-1 ATS last 6 overall.  They are 5-0 Under last 5 in Week 4.

THURSDAY, Oct. 1 COLLEGE FOOTBALL

WESTERN KENTUCKY AT NEW MEXICO STATE

8:00 PM ET

Current: New Mexico State -2.5 | Total 57.5.  

Last game — WKU

Western Kentucky finally broke through with a 52-7 win over FCS Mercyhurst after opening with losses to Nevada, Georgia and Indiana. QB R. Tisdale Jr. was outstanding: 19-of-23 for 309 yards and 4 TDs. 

Last game — NMSU

New Mexico State lost the rivalry game to New Mexico 42-18. The Aggies are now 1-3 and have yet to beat an FBS opponent.  

Last year: Western Kentucky (-7.5) over NM State 35-15 at home.

QB matchup

WKU has used R. Tisdale Jr. and Brock Glenn. Tisdale clearly made a case to take more snaps after producing a 252.9 passer rating last week. Glenn struggled badly against Indiana, going 17-of-32 for 120 yards and an INT.  

NMSU’s quarterback Trey Hedden is completing just 54.3% of his passes for 887 yards with five TDs and five INTs. 

Offense vs. defense

In last year’s meeting WKU produced 429 total yards and 301 passing, while NMSU managed only 178 total yards.  NMSU will try and take advantage off a run defense that has allowed 220.5ypg. The problem is that the Aggies average just 135.8 rushing yards per game to rank 102nd.

Key injuries

WKU WR K. Hutchinson, TE G. Reimer and RB A. Boyd are questionable. NMSU RB R. Burton has also been dealing with an undisclosed injury.

ATS trends / angle

WKU is 7-3 ATS in its last 10.  Aggies are 6-1 Under last 7 Thursday games. 

NORTH TEXAS AT TULSA

9:00 PM ET

Current: Tulsa -1.5 | Total 57.5. 

Last game — North Texas

North Texas crushed FCS Houston Christian 63-14 after losing 49-35 at Texas State the week before. The Mean Green enter 2-2 but are 3-1 ATS and have gone Over in three of four.  

Last game — Tulsa

Tulsa was hammered 34-6 at Arkansas, its first loss. Tulsa managed only 241 total yards and played without injured starting QB Baylor Hayes. Dexter Williams II threw for 176 yards but the offense never 

QB matchup

Tulsa QB Baylor Hayes, who is miss the last game with a knee injury is expected to play. If Hayes returns, Tulsa becomes much more dangerous through the air. If not, Dexter Williams II likely handles the offense again.

North Texas QB Tayven Jackson completed 74.2% of his passes for 1,187 yards with 6 TDs and 2 INTs. Jackson is a UCF transfer, who threw for 2,151 yards last season for the Knights. 

Offense vs. defense

North Texas wants pace and possessions. Tulsa wants the opposite.

Tulsa has played four straight Unders, and its defense has been excellent at home. North Texas has played three Overs in four. That clash of styles is probably more important than the raw season averages.  

Key injuries

North Texas RB B. Haygood and WR J. Martin are questionable. Tulsa QB Baylor Hayes is questionable with the knee injury. However, he is expected to start.

ATS trends / angle

North Texas is 7-0 Over last 7 in October. Tulsa is 9-22-1 ATS last 32 conference games. 

FRIDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL

PITTSBURGH AT VIRGINIA TECH

7:00 PM ET, ESPN

Opening: Virginia Tech -5.5/53.5
Current: Virginia Tech -3 | Total 54.5

Last game — Pittsburgh

Pitt crushed FCS Bucknell behind a monster performance from Mason Heintschel, who threw for 403 yards and six touchdowns without an interception. He became the first ACC quarterback to throw six TD passes in multiple games in the same season.  

Last Game — Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech survived a miserable-weather road game at Boston College 21-14.

The Hokies trailed 14-6 in the fourth quarter before scoring 15 unanswered points.

QB Ethan Grunkemeyer completed 22-of-25 passes for 147 yards and one touchdown. He directed a crucial 10-play, 80-yard fourth-quarter TD drive, hitting Marlion Jackson for a 14-yard touchdown before Jeffrey Overton Jr. ran in the two-point conversion. 

Virginia Tech finished with 370 yards, including 223 rushing, despite playing in rain and winds reported around 39 mph. 

QB matchup

Mason Heintschel vs. QB Ethan Grunkemeyer. Grunkenmeyer, a Penn State transfer who joined James Franklin in Blackburg, is completing 74.3% of his passes for 1,1012 yards with eight TDs and no picks. Jeffrey Overton ledas the Hokies with 409 yards and four TDs.

Heintschel enters 88-of-130 (67.7%) for 1,191 yards, 13 TD and just one INT. He ranks second in the ACC in TD passes and third at 297.8 passing yards per game.  

That gives Pitt a real passing-game edge, but Lane Stadium is the toughest environment he’s faced.

Offense vs. defense

Both teams are elite against the run. Virginia Tech ranks around 14th nationally in rushing defense, while Pitt ranks fourth.  

That puts even more pressure on the quarterbacks. Pitt’s advantage is Heintschel’s vertical passing and receiving depth; 13 different Panthers caught a pass last week.  

Key Trends: VT is 5-1 Over last 6 home games. Pitt is 5-0 ATS last 5 in October.

LIBERTY AT DELAWARE

7:00 PM ET, CBS Sports Network

Opening: Liberty -6.5 | Total 50.5
Current: Liberty -7 | Total 50.0.  

Last game — Liberty

Liberty beat Coastal Carolina 34-17 and has now won three straight after losing at James Madison. Liberty is averaging 30.5 points per game.  

Last game — Delaware

Delaware was overwhelmed at Virginia  .  

QB matchup

Liberty QB Deshawn Purdie has 779 passing yards through four games and gives Liberty the clear passing advantage.  

Delaware starting QB Nick Minicucci was their starting QB and had solid stats with 838 yards passing (57.3%), 5 TDs and 3 INTs. However he was injured against Virginia and the Hens used Braden Streeter, who completed just 2 of 16 for 9 yards with two TDs.  Riley Trujillo is another option if they need him since Delaware is keeping it quiet on Minicucci’s injury.

Offense vs. defense

This is where Liberty’s advantage is clearest.

Advanced matchup data rates Liberty’s passing offense significantly above Delaware’s pass defense, while Liberty’s own defense ranks near the top nationally in completion percentage allowed. 

Delaware needs to run the ball and avoid a game where Purdie gets 35+ possessions/throws in favorable field position.

2025 matchup

Liberty beat Delaware 59-30 at home. Liberty produced 561 yards: 282 rushing and 279 passing. Delaware had 420 yards but only 76 rushing.

Key injuries

No major Liberty QB injury currently listed. Delaware QB N. Minicucci (undis) is questionable.

 Key Trends: Del is 5-0 ATS last 5 home games. Lib is 0-4 ATS last 4 conference games and 5-1 Over last 6 conference games.

PENN STATE AT NORTHWESTERN

8:00 PM ET, FOX

Opening: Penn State -3.5 | Total 47.5
Current: Penn State -2.5 | Total 45.  

Last game — Penn State

Penn State suffered a brutal collapse against Wisconsin after leading 17-0, falling to 3-1. QB Rocco Becht struggled, and the offense became predictable late.  

Last game — Northwestern

Northwestern went to No. 6 Indiana and lost only 29-23, easily covering as a 20.5-point underdog. Before that, Northwestern beat Colorado 41-7.  

QB matchup — Rocco Becht vs. Aidan Chiles

Becht: 865 passing yards, 9 TD, 1 INT.
Chiles: 807 passing yards, 6 TD, 0 INT.  Becht is a Iowa State transfer, who joined Matt Campbell in his move to Happy Valley. Chiles is a transfer from Michigan State.

Offense vs. defense

Penn State averages 36.8 points per game and Northwestern 32.7. But Penn State’s defense is allowing only 11.5 points per game, compared with Northwestern’s 18.0.

Northwestern’s passing offense is the important matchup. If Chiles protects the ball and avoids Penn State’s pass rush, Northwestern can stay on the field.

Penn State wants to re-establish the run and keep Becht from having to rescue the offense on third-and-long.

2025 matchup

Northwestern pulled one of last season’s biggest upsets, winning 22-21 at Penn State as a 20.5-point underdog.  

That result ultimately contributed to James Franklin’s departure to Virginia Tech.

Key injuries

Penn State WR Koby Howard is OUT. RB D. Sheffey and TE B. Kortovich are questionable; DL M. Granville is out for the season.

ATS trends / angle

Northwestern is on a 7-3 ATS run over its last 10 and is 12-2 Over last 14 conference games. PSU is 2-6 ATS last 8 in October.