Author: Mat Daily

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 25

Army at Temple — 4:00 ET

Opening line: Army -3 | Total 50

Current: Army -3 Total 48.5.  

Last games: Army comes in after a bye and is quarterback-driven option attack. Temple has been more competitive offensively than the 27-9 loss to Penn State two weeks ago initially suggested.

QB matchup: Army’s quarterback is much more important as a runner than his passing yardage indicates. Cale Hellums rushed for 1,223 yards last season and has 142 this season, while passing for 150 yards.  Temple’s quarterback Ajani Sheppard (52.6%) has the conventional advantage through the air. and has 99 rushing yards. Co-starter QB Jaxon Smolik (69 rush, 116 passing yds) is questionable with an injury.

Offense vs. defense: Temple’s linebackers and safeties have to play assignment football. Against Army, one missed option responsibility can turn a four-yard gain into 40. Conversely, Army’s secondary can be vulnerable if Temple protects long enough to attack outside.

2025 meeting: Army (-6.5) edged Temple 14-13 last season.

Navy at UAB — 7:00 ET

Opening: Navy -10.5 | 53

Current: Navy approximately -6/ 51.5. That’s one of the largest point-spread adjustments of the week.

Last game: Navy continues to lean on its option-based rushing offense. UAB needs a much cleaner defensive performance after struggling to consistently get opponents off the field.

QB matchup: Navy’s quarterback Braxton Woodson (296 rushing yds) was injured in their last game against FIU. They lost that game 38-30 as a 4.5-point favorite on Sept. 12. They were off last week. If Woodson can’t go, Jackson Gutierrez is a solid repalcement. He has three rushing TDs and two passing Tds. UAB is coming off a 21-14 loss last week at Louisiana as a 6.5-point dog. QB Ryder Buton is completing 56.9% of his passes for 478 yards with two TDs and three picks (7 sacks). 

Injuries: Navy has multiple offensive skill players listed questionable, including RBs L. Walker and J. Chalmers.

2025 meeting: Navy beat UAB 38-24.

Northwestern at No. 5 Indiana — 8:00 ET

Opening: Indiana -22.5/47.5

Current: Indiana -20/  Total 50.5.

QB matchup: Aidan Chiles vs. Josh Hoover

Northwestern QB Aidan Chiles: through two games available in the current stat log, Chiles is 31-of-46 (67.4%) for 514 yards, 4 passing TDs and no interceptions, plus three rushing TDs. Against Colorado last week he was outstanding: 17-of-22, 241 yards, 3 passing TDs, plus two rushing TDs.

Indiana QB Josh Hoover directs one of the nation’s more efficient attacks. He is completing 72.5% of his passes for 649 yards with 10 TDs and no picks. RB Turbo Richard leads the Hoosiers with 315 yards and four TDs.

Last games: Northwestern destroyed Colorado 41-7. Chiles accounted for five touchdowns. Indiana shut out Western Kentucky 38-0.

Offense vs. defense: . Chiles is averaging 11.2 yards per pass attempt, so Indiana can’t simply assume the Wildcats will play a conservative ball-control game. Indiana’s defense, however, has been exceptional at preventing sustained scoring drives.

2025: They did not meet last season; Indiana won the 2024 meeting 41-24.

Clemson at California — 10:30 ET

Open: Clemson -1.5/48

Current: Clemson approximately pick | Total 50.5.

QB matchup: Clemson’s quarterback situation remains more unsettled than expected entering the season. Cal counters with Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who has 7 TDs and just two INTs with 866 passing yards . Clemson freshman Tait Reynolds is completing 64.5% of his passes for 415 yards with one TD and one INT. Christopher Vizzina (1TD, 2INT) has been relegated to the backup role due to injury and performance.

Last game: Clemson escaped North Carolina in a weather-disrupted game 28-20. Cal destroyed FCS Wagner 49-7 to go 2-1. 

Offense vs. defense: Clemson’s defensive line is the best individual unit in this matchup. If Cal protects, the Bears’ receivers should have opportunities against Clemson’s secondary. If Clemson gets home with four rushers, Cal’s offense becomes much less dangerous.

2025: No meeting.

SATURDAY

No. 1 Texas at No. 14 Tennessee — Noon

Opening: Texas -5.5/57.5 

Current: Texas -4 | Total 55.

QB matchup: Arch Manning vs. Faizon Brandon

This is one of the best quarterback matchups of the weekend. Manning already faced Ohio State’s defense and has the better experienced supporting cast. He returns to Tennessee, where his uncle Peyton became a start in the mid-90s. He’s passed for 664 yards with seven TDs and two picks this season. Brandon brings considerably more athleticism than a typical freshman quarterback and has helped Tennessee reach 3-0. He’s passed for 552 yards and six TDs with just 64 passes thrown. 

Last games: Texas beat UTSA30-6after the emotional 24-23 comeback against Ohio State the week before. Tennessee remained unbeaten with another comfortable performance, beating Kennesaw State 42-9.

Offense vs. defense: Tennessee must run well enough to prevent Texas from turning Brandon into a pure pocket passer. If Texas can consistently create second-and-9 and third-and-7, its edge rush becomes a major advantage.

Texas’ own issue is establishing a better running game. If Tennessee can make Manning throw 35-40 times in Neyland Stadium, it changes the complexion of the game.

Key Trends: Tenn is 3-7 ATS last 10 overall.

Colorado State at UTSA

Current: UTSA -13.5 | Total 58

Last games: Colorado State lost 41-23 to BYU. Hauss Hejny went 6-of-10 for 80 yards and a TD before CSU also used Kaden Farrar and Darius Curry. UTSA lost 30-6 at No. 1 Texas, struggling to create explosive offense.

QB matchup: Hauss Hejny vs. UTSA’s starter. Hejny has shown upside—he threw for 325 yards and four TDs against Southern Utah. He’s compeleted 64.4% of his passes for 619 yards with 10TDs and an INT in three games. He is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury.  Owen McCown is the QB for UTSA with 559 yards, 4 TDs and one INT.

Offense vs. defense: CSU averages roughly 459 yards per game, but UTSA’s defense has been much stronger against the pass than the run. CSU’s most attractive matchup is therefore on the ground: UTSA has been allowing roughly 231 rushing yards per game. 

ATS: CSU is 0-3 ATS; UTSA 1-2 ATS. 

 t a defense stepping down from BYU.

Week 3 of the NFL and Week 4 of College Football kicks off on Thursday night with a non-conference college matchup and a NFC contest.

Liberty at Coastal Carolina — 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

Line: Liberty -2½; total 50; moneyline Liberty -134, Coastal +112. FanDuel odds

 Their most recent meeting was the 2020 Cure Bowl, which Liberty won 37–34 in overtime. Liberty coach Jamey Chadwell now faces the Coastal Carolina program he previously led.  

Records: Liberty (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U), CCU (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, 0-2 O/U)

Last games: Sept 19: Liberty (-14.5) crushed Ball State 51-15 at home. On the same date, CCU (+5.5) fell at Delaware 22-14. 

Quarterbacks: Liberty’s Deshawn Purdie has 563 passing yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions through three games. Coastal’s Deuce Bailey has 826 yards, eight touchdowns and no interceptions.   

Game analysis: Liberty broke through for a 51–15 win over Ball State last Saturday, while Coastal lost 22–14 at Delaware. The key test is whether Liberty can carry that offensive improvement on the road. Coastal averages 277.3 passing yards per game, but Liberty has allowed just 132.3. 

Key Trends: LU is: 7-1 Under last 8 non-conf. games and 4-0 ATS last 4 vs. Sun Belt. CCU is: 4-1 ATS last 5 home games and 4-1 ATS last 5 vs. CUSA. 

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers — 8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video

Line: Green Bay -5½; total 43½; moneyline Packers -240, Falcons +210. FanDuel odds

Records: ATL: 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS, 0-2 O/U GB: 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS, 1-1 O/U.

Last games: Atlanta has scored just 16 total points in losses at Pittsburgh (20-13) and last week to Carolina (34-3). Green Bay’s defense fell apart in the opener, falling at Minnesotaw 39-22. Last week, they edged the NJ Jets 20-17 in overtime as a 3.5-point favorite.

Atlanta won their most recent meeting 25–24 in 2023. Green Bay has won the last four regular-season meetings played at Lambeau Field.

Quarterbacks: Jordan Love went 16-for-29 for 145 yards and two touchdowns as Green Bay rallied to beat the Jets 20–17 in overtime last Sunday. Michael Penix Jr. will make his first start of 2026 after returning from a knee injury. Tua Tagovailova (oblique) also returns as the backup with Cooper Rush, who started the first two games, is the thrid string. Atlanta has not reached the red zone in its first two games, so how quickly Penix restores its downfield passing game is the central question.  Rush was awful in the first two games, throwing for 229 yards with one TDs, five INTs and completing just 56.4% of his passes. Pennix Jr. should allow Bijan Robinson (155 yds, 4.2ypc) to be more productive against teams that are not just stacking the box. The 26-year old Pennix threw for 1,982 yards iwth nine TDs and three picks last season (60.1%) in nine games. He’s not a major threat to run the ball.

The Packers have the better quarterback in Love, but they have injury issues on offense with receiver Jayden Reed (neck) and RT Zach Bako-Bewele (knee) out. Defensively, with no Micah Parsons (knee), the defense lacks a playmaker. They also rank 29th in the NFL with just 3.3 yards per carry. Chris Brooks (40 yds) and Marshawn Lloyd (57 yds) have been ineffective and the injuries on the offensive line haven’t helped.

Game analysis: Green Bay has the steadier quarterback situation, but its protection and receiving depth are concerns on a short week. Green Bay defensive tackle Javon Hargrave is questionable. Atlanta  needs to establish its running game to keep Penix out of obvious passing downs. Falcons defensive end Samson Ebukam is out.  

Key Trends:

Atlanta is 5-0 ATS last 5 after a DD loss at home. GB is 4-0 Under last 4 after an ATS loss. 

It’s been a rough first two weeks for starting quarterbacks in the NFL: Jayden Daniels, Sam Darnold, Kyler Murray and Caleb Williams have suffered injuries that knocked them out at least a game. The best way to handicap a heavy injury week is to evaluate the entire replacement structure—not merely subtract points for the injured player. Quarterback injuries matter most, but the market often misprices how the backup fits the offense, what the coaching staff will change, and which other injuries magnify the problem.

1. Grade the quarterback change in context

Don’t use a universal rule such as “the starting quarterback is worth six points.” Estimate the effect on this particular matchup.

Evaluate:

• Accuracy and decision-making
• Sack avoidance and mobility
• Turnover risk
• Experience in the system
• Practice repetitions with the starters
• Ability to operate protections and audibles
• Performance when pressured
• Third-down and red-zone efficiency
• Compatibility with the expected game plan

A competent veteran backup in a run-oriented offense might cost only 1–2 points. A raw freshman or inexperienced NFL backup replacing an elite quarterback could cost 6–10 points—or more when the supporting cast is also depleted.

2. Separate quarterback talent from offensive stability

The backup’s name is less important than the environment surrounding him.

Ask:

• Is the offensive line healthy?
• Can the team run without facing constant stacked boxes?
• Are the top receivers and tight ends available?
• Does the backup have experience with the starting center?
• Can the defense and special teams create short fields?
• Is the coaching staff capable of simplifying the offense?

A limited quarterback can survive behind a strong line with an effective running game. The same player becomes a major liability when forced into obvious passing situations.

3. Study the “injury cluster”

Multiple injuries within one position group are usually more damaging than isolated injuries around the roster.

The most important clusters include:

• Quarterback plus left tackle
• Quarterback plus center
• Quarterback plus multiple receivers
• Two or more offensive linemen
• Both starting cornerbacks
• Edge rushers plus defensive tackles
• Linebackers against a run-heavy or option offense

The market may adjust for each recognizable player but still underestimate their combined effect. Five individual one-point downgrades do not always equal five points; injuries can interact and create a much larger structural problem.

4. Determine what the offense loses schematically

Quarterback injuries can change much more than passing production.

A replacement may cause:

• More conservative early-down play calling
• Fewer deep throws
• More screens and quick passes
• Reduced pre-snap motion or audible packages
• Heavier personnel and additional protection
• More rushing attempts
• Slower tempo
• Greater fourth-down conservatism
• Increased sack and turnover risk

This often creates an opportunity in the total, first half, team total or derivative markets—even when the adjusted side is accurate.

5. Handicap the opposing defense

A quarterback downgrade is most meaningful when the opponent can attack the replacement’s weaknesses.

For example:

• An immobile backup against an elite pass rush
• A freshman against a defense that disguises coverages
• An inaccurate passer facing tight man coverage
• A quarterback with slow processing against heavy blitz pressure
• A backup dependent on play action against a defense that stops the run
• A smaller quarterback behind an injured interior line

Conversely, a backup may be playable against a soft zone defense that allows easy underneath completions.

6. Track the timeline, not just the designation

“Questionable” does not tell the entire story. Monitor:

• When the injury occurred
• Whether the player returned to the game
• Practice participation each day
• Whether repetitions increased or decreased
• Reporter observations about mobility
• Whether the backup received first-team work
• Roster elevations and emergency signings
• Coach language and game-status changes

A full Friday practice usually means something different from limited work all week. In college football, information can be less transparent, making travel rosters, warmups and reliable local reporting especially valuable.

7. Compare your adjustment with the market’s adjustment

Record the line:

1. Before the injury
2. Immediately after the news
3. After the replacement is announced
4. Near kickoff

Suppose a team moves from -6 to -2 after losing its quarterback. The question is not whether the injury matters—it clearly does. The question is whether the replacement and matchup warrant a four-point adjustment.

Avoid automatically betting against the injured team after the market has already made an aggressive move. Backup quarterbacks can offer value when the price crosses several key numbers.

8. Treat NFL and college quarterbacks differently

NFL

Information is usually better, but the market adjusts rapidly. The strongest edges often involve:

• Protection changes
• Center-quarterback communication
• Pressure and blitz matchups
• Play-caller tendencies with the backup
• Team totals and first-half markets

College football

The range of outcomes is wider. Consider:

• Whether the backup was a highly regarded recruit or transfer
• Previous starting experience
• Differences in running ability
• Whether the offense was already using two quarterbacks
• Quality of the offensive coordinator
• Emotional reaction and home-field support
• Whether the opponent prepared for the backup’s style

A mobile college backup can occasionally improve an offense if his skill set creates a matchup problem.

9. Look beyond the side

Injury information often provides a better angle in another market:

• First-half under: simplified opening plan for a new quarterback
• Team-total under: injured offense faces a difficult defensive matchup
• Game under: both teams likely to shorten the game
• Opponent team-total over: turnover-prone backup may create short fields
• Running-back props: increased rushing volume
• Receiver unders: reduced passing volume or weaker downfield accuracy
• Backup rushing props: more scrambling and designed runs

Be cautious with an automatic full-game under. Defensive touchdowns, short fields and late-game mistakes can create unexpected points.

Football gets the attention. Basketball gets the action. But hockey may be one of the most overlooked sports for bettors looking to diversify their action throughout the year.

And here’s something many bettors don’t realize:

YOU DON’T HAVE TO WATCH HOCKEY TO BET HOCKEY.

You don’t need to know every player, follow every team or sit through three periods every night. What matters is having the right information, understanding the numbers and identifying situations where the betting line may not accurately reflect the matchup.

Why Hockey Deserves More Attention

Hockey generally receives less mainstream betting attention than the NFL and major college football. That doesn’t automatically mean sportsbooks make bad lines, but it creates a different betting environment where specialized research can be particularly valuable.

The objective isn’t simply determining which team is better.

It’s determining whether the price is right.

Goaltending Can Change Everything

The starting goalie is one of the most important variables in hockey handicapping.

A change in goaltender can dramatically alter a matchup. That’s why bettors should evaluate projected and confirmed starters, recent performance, workload, rest and the quality of the opposing offense.

Scheduling Creates Handicapping Opportunities

Hockey teams play demanding schedules. Back-to-back games, three games in four nights, extended road trips, travel and rest disparities can all matter.

Imagine two relatively even teams. One is rested at home. The other played the previous night, traveled afterward and may start its backup goalie.

That is information worth incorporating into the price.

Best Methods for Betting Hockey

1. Start With the Goaltenders

Before making a hockey wager, know who is expected to start in goal.

Don’t evaluate the matchup solely by team records. Compare the expected goaltenders and look at recent performance, save percentage, goals saved relative to expectation, workload and home/road performance.

2. Look Beyond Wins and Losses

A team’s record doesn’t always tell you how well it is playing.

Study:

Expected goals • Shot quality • High-danger chances • Shot differential • Special teams • Possession • Goaltending

A team can win several games despite being consistently outplayed. Another can lose several while generating the better opportunities.

Those underlying numbers can help identify teams whose results may eventually move closer to their actual level of play.

3. Don’t Automatically Lay Expensive Moneylines

One of the biggest mistakes hockey bettors make is repeatedly laying large prices with strong teams.

A favorite can win frequently and still be a poor value at the wrong price.

Instead of asking:

“Who is going to win?”

Ask:

“Is this team’s probability of winning greater than what this price implies?”

There’s a major difference.

4. Consider the Puck Line

The standard puck line is usually -1.5/+1.5 goals.

When an elite team is heavily favored, laying -1.5 can sometimes offer a more attractive return than laying a very expensive moneyline.

Conversely, +1.5 can be useful when you expect a competitive, lower-scoring game.

But don’t use the puck line simply to get a better price. The anticipated game script should support it.

5. Look Closely at Totals

Totals can be one of hockey’s most interesting markets.

Evaluate both goaltenders, offensive form, defensive quality, shot creation, special teams and pace.

An outstanding goalie facing a team struggling to generate quality chances could point toward an Under.

Two aggressive offenses with vulnerable goaltending and strong power plays could create an Over opportunity.

Handicap how the game should be played—not simply each team’s last final score.

6. Consider First-Period Betting

You don’t always have to bet the entire game.

First-period moneylines and totals can isolate a specific matchup before fatigue, empty-net situations and late-game strategy become factors.

Some teams consistently start quickly. Others take time to establish their offense.

First-period betting can be particularly useful when the early-game matchup provides a clearer advantage than the full-game market.

7. Don’t Forget Team Totals

Sometimes you have a strong opinion about one offense but don’t want to predict the opponent.

That’s where team totals can help.

If a strong offensive team faces a vulnerable goalie and poor penalty-killing unit, its team total may provide a cleaner way to express the handicap than betting the full-game Over.

Likewise, a weak offense facing an elite defensive team and goaltender can create a team-total Under opportunity.

8. Pay Attention to Special Teams

Power plays and penalty killing matter.

A team with an excellent power play facing an opponent that takes too many penalties can have a meaningful matchup advantage.

The reverse is also true.

Don’t just compare overall scoring averages. Determine how each team creates its goals and whether its opponent is vulnerable in those areas.

9. Use Scheduling and Travel

This is especially important in hockey.

Look for:

Back-to-backs • Three games in four nights • Long road trips • Travel between time zones • Rest advantages • Backup-goalie starts

A team’s situation can sometimes be almost as important as its talent.

10. Shop for the Best Price

Hockey moneylines can vary from sportsbook to sportsbook.

A small difference may not look important on one wager, but repeatedly accepting -145 when -135 is available elsewhere adds up over an entire season.

Price matters.

The same principle applies to totals and puck lines.

11. Don’t Chase Losses

Hockey contains randomness. Posts, deflections, goalie performances and empty-net goals can turn a well-handicapped wager into a loss.

Don’t increase the next wager simply because the previous one lost.

Good handicapping and good money management have to work together.

12. Be Selective

Perhaps the most important method is knowing when not to bet.

A full NHL schedule doesn’t mean every game offers value.

More games should mean more opportunities to find the right situation, not an obligation to bet more games.

NFL SUNDAY — SEPTEMBER 20, 2026

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT TENNESSEE TITANS

1:00 PM ET — FOX
Line: Philadelphia -7 | Total: 39.5

Open -4.5/41.5.

Last Week

Philadelphia opened with a 24-22 win over Washington. Jalen Hurts threw for 203 yards and three touchdowns without an interception, although Philadelphia wasn’t able to put Washington away comfortably.

Tennessee lost to the Jets. The Titans’ offense had difficulty sustaining drives, making this a significant step up against an Eagles defense that can control games up front.

Quarterback Matchup

Jalen Hurts vs. Cam Ward

Hurts has the substantial experience advantage. He also has the better offensive line and supporting cast. Ward’s challenge is avoiding obvious passing situations in which Philadelphia can unleash its pass rush. Hurts enters Week 2 after producing three TD passes and no interceptions in the opener.

Matchup analysis: Philadelphia’s first objective should be controlling the game at the line of scrimmage. If the Eagles establish their running game early, they can stay out of obvious passing situations and force Tennessee’s defense to defend the entire width of the field. Tennessee’s better route is almost the opposite: shorten the game, avoid negative plays and keep Philadelphia’s pass rush from dictating downs.

ATS Trends

• Eagles are 6-0 ATS in their last six as an underdog.
• Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last five as a road underdog.
• The Over is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings.
• Tennessee has gone Over in five of its last six Week 2 games.

Injury Watch

Philadelphia DT Jalen Carter and CB Cooper DeJean missed Wednesday practice, making both worth monitoring. Philly OLB Jonanthan Greenard(pec) is out. Tenn LB Cedric Gray (concussion), LB James Williams (elbow) and CB Cordale Flott (quad) are ?

PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

1:00 PM ET — CBS
Line: New England -4.5 to -5.5 | Total: 41.5

Open: -5.5/42.5.

Last year: NE (+1.5) over Pittsburgh 21-14.

Last Week

Pittsburgh beat Atlanta 20-13, showing the kind of defense/run-game formula Mike McCarthy can use with Aaron Rodgers.

New England lost 13-10 at Seattle last Thursday night and again struggled to generate consistent offense.

Quarterback Matchup

Aaron Rodgers vs. Drake Maye

Rodgers brings enormous experience, but the more important issue could be New England’s protection. The Patriots’ offense has been struggling against high-quality defenses, and Pittsburgh presents another difficult front. Maye has outstanding size and mobility so the Steelers will need to get to him. Unfortunately, he lost his top WR last week A.J. Brown to an ankle injury.

Matchup analysis:   The Steelers want to generate pressure without constantly blitzing, allowing extra defenders to remain in coverage. New England’s counter is a quick passing game, screens and enough rushing success to prevent Pittsburgh’s edge rushers from attacking every snap.

On the other side, New England needs to prevent Pittsburgh from generating easy explosive plays. Making Pittsburgh sustain 10- or 12-play drives is preferable to allowing short fields or chunk gains.

ATS Trends

• Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last five as a home favorite.
• Patriots are 4-0 ATS following a straight-up loss.
• Steelers are 4-0 ATS after rushing for fewer than 90 yards in their previous game.
• The Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.

Coaching Matchup

An interesting wrinkle: Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers are reunited in Pittsburgh, giving the Steelers a veteran offensive combination against a Patriots defense that can force quarterbacks to be patient.

Injuries:

Pittsburgh

• CB Joey Porter Jr. — OUT (conditioning/back)
• WR Michael Pittman — QUESTIONABLE (foot) and missed the final two practices, making his status worth monitoring.
• OT Troy Fautanu — QUESTIONABLE (ankle).

New England Patriots

• OT Dametrious Crownover — OUT (knee)
• OL Ben Brown — QUESTIONABLE (knee)
• LB Dre’Mont Jones — QUESTIONABLE (foot)
• CB Carlton Davis — QUESTIONABLE (neck)
• RB TreVeyon Henderson returned to practice this week after his ankle issue.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT CHICAGO BEARS

1:00 PM ET — FOX
Line: Chicago -4.5 | Total: 47.5

2025 Matchups

Minnesota won the first meeting 27-24 in Chicago. Chicago won the rematch 19-17 in Minnesota.

Last Week

Minnesota stunned Green Bay 39-22. Starter Kyler Murray left with a concussion, and Carson Wentz came in and helped spark a dramatic comeback.

Chicago exploded for 59 points in a 59-37 win at Carolina. Caleb Williams completed 72.4% of his passes, threw two TDs and added two rushing scores.

Quarterback Matchup

Carson Wentz vs. Caleb Williams

Murray (concussion) is out for this one.  Wentz is a former MVP who has a plethora of weapons and Kevin O’Connell calling plays.

Williams’ Week 1 numbers were outstanding: 269 passing yards, 65 rushing yards and four total TDs.

This matchup changed considerably with Kyler Murray ruled out for Minnesota, according to the latest injury reporting.

Matchup analysis: Minnesota should try to make the game easier on its replacement quarterback by leaning on the running game, play-action and defined reads. Chicago should respond by loading the box more aggressively and forcing Minnesota to prove it can consistently beat man coverage outside.

Chicago’s offense has an opportunity to dictate tempo. Minnesota doesn’t want this becoming a high-possession game in which its quarterback has to throw 35-40 times.

ATS Trends

• Minnesota is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six overall.
• Vikings are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six trips to Chicago.
• Bears are 6-0 ATS after gaining more than 350 yards in their previous game.
• Under is 5-0 in Chicago’s last five after scoring 30+ points.

Injuries

Chicago RT Darnell Wright missed Wednesday practice with a knee issue, while RB D’Andre Swift was limited. Minnesota, but they are relatively healthy.

Minnesota:

RB Jordan Mason has gone on IR, and Murray is out. RT Brian O’Neell (knee) is ? WR Jauan Jennings (personal) is out. 

Key Matchup

Caleb Williams vs. Brian Flores’ pressure packages.

Chicago scored 59 against Carolina; this defense is a completely different challenge. Minnesota’s disguises and blitz pressure make this a much better test of whether Chicago’s offensive explosion is sustainable.

CAROLINA PANTHERS AT ATLANTA FALCONS

1:00 PM ET — FOX
Line: Carolina -2.5 | Total: 43.5

Open: Carolina -1.5/44.

2025 Matchups

Carolina swept Atlanta:
30-0 in the first game and 30-27 in the rematch.

Last Week

Carolina lost to Chicago 59-37, but Bryce Young threw for 361 yards and three touchdowns.

Atlanta lost at Pittsburgh 20-13. The Falcons managed only 13 points, although Bijan Robinson produced 173 yards from scrimmage. Third-string quarteraback Cooper Rush was abysmal throwing for 143 yards with two INT and a TD.

Quarterback Matchup

Bryce Young vs. Cooper Rush

Michael Penix Jr. (knee) will sit out another week. Tua Tagovailoa (oblique) is out again so Rush is back as starter agaist an ever-improving Bryce Young. 

Atlanta’s quarterback injuries make this one particularly interesting, with its QB situation among the major injury stories entering Sunday.

Matchup analysis: Atlanta should want to take pressure away from its quarterback by running the ball and creating favorable play-action opportunities. Carolina knows that, which makes Atlanta’s ability to run against loaded fronts critical.

Carolina should be aggressive offensively. Rather than settling into a slow game and allowing Atlanta to hide its quarterback situation, the Panthers can benefit from forcing Atlanta to chase points.

ATS Trends

• Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last six games in Atlanta.
• Panthers’ last six road games are 5-1 Under.
• Carolina games are 4-1 Under in the last five overall.
• Atlanta has gone Over in six of eight following a straight-up loss.

Key Matchup

Bijan Robinson vs. Carolina’s run defense.

Chicago ran through Carolina for 7.5 yards per rush with two 100-yard runners in Week 1. 

Injuries:

Carolina Panthers

• DT Bobby Brown III — OUT (back)
• OLB Patrick Jones II — QUESTIONABLE (back)

Atlanta Falcons

• QB Michael Penix Jr. — OUT (knee)
• QB Tua Tagovailoa — DOUBTFUL (oblique)
• CB Billy Bowman Jr. — OUT (Achilles)
• G Chris Lindstrom — QUESTIONABLE (concussion)
• CB A.J. Terrell — QUESTIONABLE (shoulder)

GREEN BAY PACKERS AT NEW YORK JETS

1:00 PM ET — FOX
Line: Green Bay -3.5 | Total: 44.5.

Open: -5.5/42.5.

Last Week

Green Bay blew a big advantage in a 39-22 loss at Minnesota. Jordan Love still threw for 387 yards, but Green Bay produced only three points in the second half.

The Jets opened with a 23-10 win at Tennessee.

Quarterback Matchup

Jordan Love vs. Geno Smith

Love’s raw passing production was excellent last week, but the turnovers and second-half execution were not. The Jets’ formula figures to involve making Green Bay sustain long drives rather than surrender explosive plays. Smith was very efficient, going 19 of 24 for 215 yards with no INTs against the Titans. 

Matchup analysis: This is one of Sunday’s more interesting trench games. Green Bay’s offensive-line health deserves attention, because the Packers don’t want the Jets’ defensive front disrupting the timing of their passing game.

The Jets should attempt to establish the run and use it to manufacture favorable down-and-distance situations. If they’re repeatedly facing third-and-8+, Green Bay’s defense gains a significant tactical advantage.

Key to the game: Green Bay’s protection versus the Jets’ front.

Betting angle: Watch Green Bay’s offensive-line availability closely Sunday morning. An offensive-line injury can have a larger point-spread impact than the market initially recognizes because it affects both the passing and running games.

ATS Trends

• Road team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
• Packers are on a 5-0 Over run as a favorite.
• Jets are 4-0 Over in their last four home games.
• Packers are 8-2 Over in their last 10 road games

Injuries:

Green Bay Packers

• DT Warren Brinson — OUT (calf)
• DT Javon Hargrave — DOUBTFUL (knee/concussion)
• G Aaron Banks — QUESTIONABLE (knee)
• OL Zach Tom — QUESTIONABLE (knee)
• EDGE Lukas Van Ness — QUESTIONABLE (concussion)
• CB Benjamin St-Juste — QUESTIONABLE (hamstring)

New York Jets

• S Minkah Fitzpatrick — OUT (groin)
• EDGE Joseph Ossai — OUT (foot)
• WR Omar Cooper Jr. — OUT (ankle)
• RB Kene Nwangwu — OUT (back)
• EDGE Will McDonald IV — officially questionable, although coach Aaron Glenn said he will play.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS

1:00 PM ET — CBS
Line: Baltimore -9 | Total: 46

Open: -7.5/46.5

Last Week 

New Orleans lost an excellent game at Detroit in overtime 31-30. Tyler Shough finished with 410 passing yards and three TDs after a slow start.

Baltimore crushed Indianapolis 41-23, producing 502 yards of offense. Lamar Jackson threw for 324 yards, while Derrick Henry scored three rushing touchdowns.

Quarterback Matchup

Tyler Shough vs. Lamar Jackson

This is one of Sunday’s largest quarterback-experience gaps.

Shough’s Week 1 second half was impressive, but Baltimore’s defensive speed and pressure packages present a completely different problem.

Jackson averaged an extraordinary 13.0 yards per pass attempt against Indianapolis. However, he might not have speedy WR Zay Flowers (hamstring) this week.

Matchup analysis: Baltimore’s biggest offensive advantage remains its ability to make defenses account for multiple rushing threats.

New Orleans’ offense has shown enough explosiveness that Baltimore shouldn’t assume it can simply grind the Saints down. The Saints scored 30 in their one-point loss at Detroit last week, so Baltimore’s secondary will be tested.

ATS Trends

New Orleans has some of the strongest ATS trends on Sunday’s board:

• Saints are 7-0 ATS in their last seven overall.
• Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games.
• Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last six as an underdog.
• Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last five as a road dog.
• Baltimore has gone Over in five straight Week 2 games.

Injuries:

Baltimore Ravens

• WR Zay Flowers — DOUBTFUL (hamstring)..
• DT Nnamdi Madubuike — OUT (neck)
• LB Teddye Buchanan — OUT (knee)
• CB T.J. Tampa — OUT (knee)
• LT Ronnie Stanley — QUESTIONABLE (toe)
• G John Simpson — QUESTIONABLE (groin)
• OLB Trey Hendrickson — QUESTIONABLE (finger)

  New Orleans Saints

• LS Zach Wood — OUT (calf)
• LB Isaiah Stalbird — DOUBTFUL (shoulder)
• WR Chris Olave — QUESTIONABLE (hamstring)
• EDGE Chase Young — QUESTIONABLE (calf)
• DL Christen Miller — QUESTIONABLE (toe)

CINCINNATI BENGALS AT HOUSTON TEXANS

1:00 PM ET — CBS
Line: Houston -2.5/-3 | Total: 46.5

Open: -2.5/46.5

Last Week

Cincinnati beat Tampa Bay 33-27.

Houston lostto Buffalo 36-31 at home, but the offense showed much more explosiveness than many expected. However, the much celebrated defense was another story.

Quarterback Matchup

Joe Burrow vs. C.J. Stroud

Burrow has some of the best weapons in the game in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins at wide receiver. Stroud will be without one of his top weapons in WR Nico Colins.

Houston’s key issue is protecting Stroud against Cincinnati’s revamped pass rush. Cincinnati’s issue is giving Burrow enough protection against Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter.

Matchup analysis: Houston needs to generate pressure without selling out with blitzes. Cincinnati wants enough protection to attack Houston’s secondary downfield.

Key to the game: Cincinnati’s offensive line versus Houston’s pass rush.

If Cincinnati protects cleanly, its passing game can create explosive plays. If Houston consistently collapses the pocket with four, the Texans can play coverage behind it and dramatically change the game.

ATS Trends

• Underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.
• Road team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.
• Houston is 8-1 ATS after gaining 350+ yards in its previous game.
• Texans are 6-1 ATS following an ATS loss.
• Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games against teams with losing home records.

Key Matchup

Houston allowed Buffalo tight ends to combine for 137 receiving yards last week. Cincinnati TE Mike Gesicki could become an important middle-of-the-field matchup.

Injuries:

Cincinnati Bengals

• DT B.J. Hill (Achilles) is ?

Houston Texans

• WR Nico Collins — OUT (hamstring) — one of the biggest offensive injuries of the week.
• G Ed Ingram — OUT (groin)
• OLB Jadeveon Clowney — OUT (knee)
• LB Jake Hummel — OUT (groin)

CLEVELAND BROWNS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

1:00 PM ET — CBS
Line: Tampa Bay -8.5 | Total: 41.5

Open: -6.5/41.5.

Last Week

Cleveland was routedby Jacksonville 34-10.

Tampa Bay lost at Cincinnati 33-27.

Quarterback Matchup

Deshaun Watson vs. Baker Mayfield

Cleveland has confirmed Watson will remain the starter despite the Week 1 performance. Watson completed 16 of 22 for 205 yards, with one interception and a late touchdown. Baker Mayfield might have some extra motivation to play in Cleveland. But he was sacked four times last week and the Bucs were a minus-3 in turnover margin with four fumbles against the Bengals.

The current market has Tampa Bay around a touchdown favorite with the total in the low 40s, though prices vary by sportsbook.

Matchup analysis: Cleveland has to avoid falling behind early. Its best path is to run effectively, shorten the game and allow its defense to create favorable field position.

ATS Trends

• The Under is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
• Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
• Cleveland has gone Over in five of six Week 2 games.
•  Tampa Bay entered the week 0-10 ATS over its previous 10 games.

Injuries:

Cleveland Browns

• G Teven Jenkins — OUT (back)
• CB Tyson Campbell — QUESTIONABLE (ankle)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• WR Jalen McMillan — QUESTIONABLE (knee) but has been practicing fully, which is encouraging.
• CB Jacob Parrish — QUESTIONABLE (back)
• S Miles Killebrew — QUESTIONABLE (concussion)
• RB Sean Tucker has been working back from his hamstring injury.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT DENVER BRONCOS

4:05 PM ET — CBS
Line: Denver -2.5 | Total: 45.5

Open: Denver -3/43.5

2025 Matchup

Jacksonville went into Denver last December and won 34-20.

Last Week

Jacksonville dominated Cleveland 34-10.

Trevor Lawrence completed 78.3% of his passes for 245 yards and four TDs without an interception, one of the best QB performances of Week 1.

Denver lost at Kansas City 31-10 on MNF.

Quarterback Matchup

Trevor Lawrence vs. Bo Nix

Lawrence enters off the stronger performance. Nix is still coming back from the ankle injury that ended Denver’s postseason last year. He struggled against the Chiefs, but didn’t get a lot of help from his Oline or his WRs.

ATS Trends

• Jaguars are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 overall.
• Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
• Jaguars are 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Denver.
• Road team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.
• Denver is 4-0 Under following a straight-up loss.

Injuries:

Denver Broncos

• WR Marvin Mims Jr. — foot; DNP Wednesday and Thursday
• RB RJ Harvey — hamstring; improved from DNP Wednesday to limited Thursday
• WR Troy Franklin — knee; full participant
• LB Jonah Elliss — shoulder; full participant

Jacksonville Jaguars

• WR Brian Thomas Jr. — shoulder; limited
• WR Jakobi Meyers — thumb; limited
• LB Foye Oluokun — wrist; limited
• RB LeQuint Allen Jr. — hip; limited
• G Cole Van Lanen — knee; limited

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

4:05 PM ET — CBS
Line: Chargers -6.5 | Total: 43.5

Open: -8.5/42.5

Last Week

Las Vegas beat Miami 27-13. Ashton Jeanty rushed for 102 yards.

The Chargers lost at home to Arizona, 26-14 and generated only seven points after their opening touchdown drive.

2025 Matchups

The Chargers swept both games, winning them by a combined 51-23. Las Vegas lost the first 20-9.

Quarterback Matchup

Kirk Cousins vs. Justin Herbert

Cousins threw two interceptions last week, something Las Vegas survived against Miami but may not survive against Herbert, who desperately needs a win.

ATS Trends

• Favorite is 7-0-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
• Chargers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 AFC West games.
• Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
• Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their last four AFC games.
• Chargers are 4-0 Under in their last four games overall.

Brock Bowers’ status is extremely important because he affects third down, red-zone efficiency and coverage structure. The Chargers also have an important receiving injury to monitor with Ladd McConkey.

Key Matchup

Edge Maxx Crosby vs. OT Joe Alt could influence the entire game.

If Herbert is kept clean, Los Angeles owns the passing-game advantage. If Crosby disrupts the pocket, the Raiders have a much better chance of staying inside the number.

Injuries:

Las Vegas Raiders

• TE Brock Bowers — DOUBTFUL (knee). He is expected to go through pregame warmups, so this is worth watching Sunday.
• CB Darien Porter — OUT (foot)
• QB Aidan O’Connell — QUESTIONABLE (personal)

Los Angeles Chargers

• WR Ladd McConkey — QUESTIONABLE (rib) — an important one for the passing game.
• OL Trey Pipkins — OUT (knee)
• DB Elijah Molden — OUT (hamstring)
• DB Deane Leonard — QUESTIONABLE (abdomen)

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS

4:25 PM ET — FOX
Line: Seattle -4 | Total: 40.5

Open: -10/44.5

Last Week

Seattle beat New England 13-10, but starting QB Sam Darnold suffered a glute injury after only five snaps.

Arizona upset the Chargers 26-14.

2025 Matchups

Seattle swept Arizona:

• 23-20 at Arizona
• 44-22 in Seattle.

Quarterback Matchup

Drew Lock vs. Jacoby Brissett

Seattle has officially ruled Darnold out. Lock will start with Jalen Milroe backing him up.

Lock was solid after replacing Darnold, completing 16 of 22 for 187 yards with a 113.3 passer rating. Brissett was very good last week, completing 27 of 37 for 277 yards and a D against the Chargers.

ATS/Series Trends

Seattle has won nine straight meetings against Arizona, six by double digits.

The Seahawks are also on a 13-4-1 ATS run as a favorite dating to last season, including the playoffs.

Injuries:

Seattle Seahawks

• QB Sam Darnold — OUT (glute)
• S Ty Okada — OUT (hamstring)
• G Anthony Bradford — QUESTIONABLE (knee/hip)
• S Nick Emmanwori — QUESTIONABLE (ankle/hip)

Arizona Cardinals

• CB Garrett Williams — OUT (Achilles)
• G Isaiah Adams — QUESTIONABLE (knee)
• G Isaac Seumalo — QUESTIONABLE (shoulder)
• DT Andrew Billings — QUESTIONABLE (knee)
• DT Roy Lopez — QUESTIONABLE (groin)
• CB Max Melton — QUESTIONABLE (ankle)
• S Dadrion Taylor-Demerson — QUESTIONABLE (ribs)

MIAMI DOLPHINS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

4:25 PM ET — FOX
Line: San Francisco -13 | Total: 45.5

Open:  10.5/46.5

Last Week

Miami lost 27-13 at Las Vegas.

San Francisco dominated the Rams 27-7 in Australia.

Quarterback Matchup

Malik Willis vs. Brock Purdy

Willis practiced fully despite a toe issue. He was sacked five times last week, rank for 39 yards and threw for 220.  San Francisco owns the quarterback continuity advantage and the superior supporting cast. Purdy threw for 205 yards last week with three TDs and a pick.

Injuries: 

Miami Dolphins

• EDGE Chop Robinson — concussion; DNP Thursday after being limited Wednesday
• LB Ronnie Harrison — hamstring; DNP Wednesday/Thursday
• LS Tucker Addington — shoulder; limited
• TE Seydou Traore — thumb/Achilles; limited
• QB Malik Willis — toe; full participant

San Francisco 49ers.

• TE George Kittle — Achilles; limited
• DE Nick Bosa — knee; limited
• RB Kaelon Black — groin; limited
• FB Kyle Juszczyk — finger; limited
• DE Keion White — back; limited
• WR De’Zhaun Stribling — ankle; DNP

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS AT DALLAS COWBOYS

4:25 PM ET — FOX
Line: Dallas -4 | Total: 50.5

Open: -4.5/51.5

Last Week

Washington lost at Philadelphia 24-22 as they couldn’t convert on a 2-point conversion to tie late in the game. The Commanders were competitive but had protection and spacing issues that disrupted Jayden Daniels’ rhythm.

Dallas lost to the Giants 28-20 on Sunday night football as their defense was dominated once again.

2025 Matchups

Dallas won the first meeting 44-22 and beat Washington again 30-23 on Christmas Day.

Quarterback Matchup

Jayden Daniels vs. Dak Prescott

Daniels is adapting to new offensive coordinator David Blough’s scheme after an injury-marred 2025 season. Dak Prescott is 13-2 in his last 15 starts against Washington. He was a pedestrian 22 of 34 for 175 yards last week with two TDs and a back pick right before the half that the Giants turned into a TD.

ATS/Total Trends:

• Dallas has gone Over in seven consecutive games.
• Washington is 6-1 Over vs. NFC East.

Injuries:

Washington Commanders

• TE Chigoziem Okonkwo — OUT (hamstring)
• LB Frankie Luvu — OUT (groin)
• DT Javon Kinlaw — QUESTIONABLE (back)

Dallas Cowboys

• LB DeMarvion Overshown — OUT (hamstring)
• S Malik Hooker — OUT (forearm)

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

8:20 PM ET — NBC
Line: Kansas City -6.5 | Total: 46.5

Open: -6.4/47.5

Last Week

Indianapolis lost 41-23 at Baltimore, allowing 502 yards.

Kansas City bounced Denver 31-10 on Monday night.

2025 Matchup

This one has real revenge/rematch value.

Indianapolis led 20-9 entering the fourth quarter at Arrowhead last November, but its offense went three-and-out on four consecutive possessions spanning the fourth quarter and overtime.

Kansas City came back to win 23-20 in overtime.

Quarterback Matchup

Daniel Jones vs. Patrick Mahomes

Daniel Jones, like Mahomes, is coming off a serious injury. Last year, he broke his left fibula in Week 12 of the Colts’ 23-20 ot loss to the Chiefs. He then tore his Achilles against the Jags in Week 14. He went 19 of 31 with one TD and one pick against the Ravens last week.

Mahomes wasn’t very sharp on Monday night against the Broncos, but he didn’t need to be because Kenneth Walker III rushed for 173 yards and two TDs.

Key Matchup

Indianapolis showed last year that it could control Kansas City for three quarters. The issue was finishing drives and protecting a lead.

The Colts settled for two third-quarter field goals in the red zone, then generated virtually nothing offensively in the fourth quarter.

Injuries:

Indianapolis Colts

• WR Ashton Dulin — OUT (ankle)
• RB DJ Giddens — QUESTIONABLE (knee)
• WR Alec Pierce had been dealing with a wrist/heel issue but isn’t listed among the NFL’s final out/questionable players.

Kansas City Chiefs

• DT Chris Jones — QUESTIONABLE (calf)
• OT Josh Simmons — OUT (back)
• DB Chamarri Conner — OUT (knee)
• CB Mansoor Delane — QUESTIONABLE (shoulder)

Let’s take a look at the FBS matchups for Friday and Saturday with analysis and lines. You can find a trends analysis for each game in our current ATS Weekly Gaming Review, Vol. 4.  Check the link at the bottom of the page.

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 18 — FBS

No. 5 Miami at Wake Forest — 7:30 ET, ESPN

Current line: Miami roughly -20.5. Total 56.

Open: -22.5/55 

Last game: Miami demolished Florida A&M 77-7. Wake Forest survived Purdue 38-36 in double overtime, with QB Gio Lopez accounting for three touchdowns.

QB matchup: Miami’s Darian Mensah gives the Hurricanes the more explosive downfield passing attack. Wake counters with Gio Lopez, whose mobility is important because Wake probably cannot afford to play this game strictly from the pocket.

ATS: Miami enters on a 7-0 ATS run overall and is also 6-0 ATS in its last six road games. Wake has gone Over in six straight.

2025 matchup: Miami and Wake did not meet last season.

Key injuries: Miami is thin at corner: O.J. Frederique, Xavier Lucas and Ja’boree Antoine are unavailable. Wake WR Ny Carr is out, while Lopez is expected to play.

No. 22 Houston at No. 13 Texas Tech — 8:00 ET, FOX

Line: Texas Tech about -7.5 | Total 52. 

Last game: Houston annihilated Southern 77-6. Texas Tech won at Oregon State 35-24.

QB matchup: Houston has Conner Weigman directing Willie Fritz’s offense. Texas Tech has used Will Hammond and Thomas Castellanos, giving Tech different styles depending on who is behind center.

ATS: Texas Tech has covered six straight conference games. Houston has produced an Over in seven straight when an underdog against a Texas school.

2025 matchup: Texas Tech beat Houston 35-11 last season. Texas Tech leads the all-time series 19-16-1, and Houston hasn’t won in Lubbock since 1990.

Injuries: Texas Tech CB Amier Boyd is out; TE Terrance Carter Jr. and LB Trey White have been dealing with injuries.

Key matchup: Houston is seventh nationally in rushing, while Texas Tech’s rush defense entered the week ranked 13th. That is probably the game inside the game.

SATURDAY, September 19

COASTAL CAROLINA AT DELAWARE

Line & Total: Delaware -4/57.5.

Open: -5/58.

Last game: CC crushed FCS Fordham 45-7, while the Blue Hens fell at Vanderbilt 35-26, covering the 21.5. 

QB matchup: Nick Minicucci is completing 49.2% of his passes for 512 yards with 3 TDs and 3 INTs for Delaware. Duece Bailey is completing 53.2% of his passes for 576 yards with 6 TDs and no picks for the Chants.

Key injury: No major confirmed quarterback absence was showing in Thursday’s primary reports.

NORTH TEXAS AT TEXAS STATE

Line & Total: Texas State -3 | 62.5.

Open: -3/63.

Last game: North Texas hammered UNLV 44-6. Texas State fell to UTSA 31-26 at home, giving 1.5.

QB matchup:  Texas State QB Brad Jackson is completing 60.4% of his passes for 342 yards with one TD and three picks. Has also has 66 rushing yards and one TD. Tayven Jackson leads North Texas with 425 yards passing, two TDs and one pick, completing 68.5% of his passes.

These teams met on Jan. 3, 2025 with Texas State (-14.5) winning 30-28 in the First Responder Bowl.

TULANE AT KANSAS STATE

Line & Total: Kansas State -20.5. Total: 49.5.

Open: -19.5/50.

Last game: Kansas State handled Washington State 34-7. Tulane edged South Alabama 28-24 as a 9.5-point favorite. 

QB matchup:  Tulane used Zeon Chriss-Gremillion in ht eopener but was replaced by Kadin Semonza in a 17-3 loss at Duke. SEmmonza comleted 14 of 22 for 212 ayrds with a TD against USA. He was a assisted by RB Jaylin Lucas, who rushed for 214 yards on 11 carries. K-State is led by QB Avery Johnson, who is completing 67.3% of his passes for 391 yards with 6 TDs and 2 INTs. He also has 101 rushing yards and a TD.

ARIZONA STATE VS. KANSAS — LONDON

Line & Total: Arizona State -5.5 | 50.5.

Open -5.5/55.

Last games: ASU was beaten 48-20 by Texas A&M. Kansas lost 38-21 to Missouri.

QB matchup: Cuttery Boley, a transfer from Kentucy, leads the Big 12 with 641 passing yards and eight TDs for the Wildcats. KU is led by Isaiah Marshall, who threwo for two TDs and two picks last week agaisnt Missouri. 

Key injury: Monitor both teams’ travel-week availability.

Analysis:  Wembley makes this neutral, and international travel introduces another variable.

No. 2 GEORGIA AT ARKANSAS

Line & Total: Georgia -24.5 | 54.

Open: 23.5/53.5.

Last game: Georgia demolished Western Kentucky 70-20. Arkansas was beaten 43-10 at Utah.

QB matchup: Georgia’s QB  Gunner Stockton has only played in 11 drives through two games and has thrown 436 yards with eight TDs. KJ Jacskson will get another huge test after struggling last week against Utah. He completed just 14 of 34 for 139 yards and was picked off. 

Kirby Smart is 10-0 at Georgia in SEC road openers, while Arkansas has dropped 11 straight converence games. They haven’t beaten the Bulldogs since 2010.

NORTH CAROLINA AT CLEMSON

Line & Total: Clemson -3.5 | 44.

Open: -6/45.

Last game: UNC beat FCS ETSU 35-3. Clemson beat Georgia Southern 22-7 but remained unimpressive offensively.

QB matchup: This is one of Saturday’s most important QB situations. Clemson starter Christopher Vizzina was benched leaving true freshman Tait Reynolds in line for his first start.

Bill Belichick with his singn Brian taking over as DC after another tumultous week in Chapel Hill, now gets to design a defensive plan against a freshman making his first college start. UNC senior Billy Edwards Jr. has  plenty of experience at Maryland and Wisconsin. He has been steady thus far, throwing for 200+ yards in wins over TCU and ETSU in rainy conditions. 

Offense/Defense: UNC is allowing only about 268 yards per game, and Xavier Lewis already has four sacks. Clemson needs its running game to prevent Reynolds from repeatedly facing third-and-long.

BOWLING GREEN AT IOWA STATE

Line & Total: Iowa State -24 | 43.5.

Open: -22.5/46.

Last games: Bowling Green lost 56-7 at Nebraska; Iowa State lost 16-13 at rival Iowa.

QB matchup: Bowling Green not only got demolished by Nebraska last week, they also lost to FCS Tarleton Stae 20-13 in their opening game. QB Jay Kastantin is comleting an impressive 73.9% of his passes fore 349 yards with a TD and a pick. The running game has been rough as they are averaging just 94.5 ypg (125th). Iowa State flunked their first FBS test against Iowa, but did cover the 14.5. QB Jaylen Raynor struggled, going 10 of 19 for 117 yards against an elite defense. Aiden Flora rushed for 89 yards on 19 carries. 

KENT STATE AT No. 6 OHIO STATE

Line & Total: Ohio State -52.5 | 59.

Open: -52.5/57.5.

Last game: Ohio State blew a 20-point fourth-quarter lead in the 24-23 loss at Texas. Kent State was shutout by SC in their opener 57-0 and then beat FCS Wofford last week 36-15 at home. 

QB matchup: Enormous Ohio State advantage. Ohio State was stunned last week in Austin after blowing a 20-point fourth-quarter lead. Julian Sayin is completing 66.7% of his passes for 598 yards with four TDs and one pick. He has one of the best receivers in the nation in Jeremiah Smith, who has 16 catches for 315 yards and three TDs. QB Dru DeShields passed for 248 yards and had 74 rushing yards last week, but he’ll have an uphill battle against a defense that will be very angry after the Texas loss.

The only question in a game like this is when Ohio State will pull their starters and whether last week’s devastating loss carries a hangover effect.

BUFFALO AT No. 14 PENN STATE

Line & Total: Penn State -41 | 50

Open: -39.5/48.

Last game: Penn State beat Temple 27-9. They did not cover the 24.5. Buffalo fell at FIU 33-20 as a 7.5-point dog. 

QB matchup: Rocco Becht gives Penn State the clear advantage. The former Iowa State QB threw for 268 yards and three TDs last week, includig two to Benjamin Brahmer. QB Jason Wright passed for 185 yards last week with two TDS and a  pick. Starting QB Elijah Holmes suffered a knee injury last week and is questionable.

Offense/Defense: Buffalo needs to run effectively and avoid allowing Penn State’s pass rush to dictate the game.

EASTERN MICHIGAN AT WISCONSIN

Line & Total: Wisconsin -23.5 | 44.5.

Open: -24.5/46.5.

Last game: EMU lost 35-7 to Michigan State. Wiscy crushed FCS Western Illinois 36-9, but didn’t cover the 43.5. 

QB matchup: Wisconsin’s QB is Colton Joseph, who played at ODU last year .He completed 12 of 22 for 173 yards against Western Illinois. EMU is averaging just 282.7 yards per game of offense. Former Michigan State QB Noah Kim has 571 yards passingwith three TDs and a pick. His top target is Harold Mack, who has 14 catches for 135 yards.

NC STATE AT VANDERBILT

Line & Total: Vanderbilt -3 | 51

Open: -4.5/53.5

Last game: NC State crushed FCS Richmond 73-0. That came after losing to ACC foe UVA 34-8 in their opener. Vandy is 2-0 after beating FCS Austin Peay and second-year FBS team Delaware 35-26 last week.

QB matchup: Vanderbilt starts freshman Jard Curtis, who replaces Blaze Berlowitz. Curtis played well last week, tossing for 210 yards and a TD with two rushing scores.  NC State’s quarterback is CJ Bailey, who threw for 281 yards and two TDs last week, while Jayden Scott rushded for 128 yards. The Wolfpack amassed 734 yards of offense against an FCS foe.

WYOMING AT CENTRAL MICHIGAN

Line & Total: Central Michigan pick | 38.5-39.5.

Open: Wyoming -2/39.5.

Last week: Wyoming beat FCS No. Colorado last week 21-13 but didn’t cover the 23.5. They lost at Colorado State in their opener 35-13. CMU edged FCS Colgate 13-10, but didn’t cover the 18.5. They were crushed by New Mexico in their opener 13-10.

QB matchup: Angel Flores is completing just 52.6% of his passes for Central Mich with 71 yards and two INTs. But he does have some legs, rushing for 149 yards with a score. Tyler Hughes is completing 66.7% of his passes for 279 yards with two TDs and three INTs, while rushing for 78 yards.

TEMPLE AT TOLEDO

Line & Total: Toledo -6 | 49.5.

Open: -3.5 /52

Last game: Temple lost 27-9 to Penn State. Toledo crushed FCS Central Conn State 63-10 after losing at Michigan State 30-20 in the opener. 

QB matchup: Toledo’s QB John Alan Ritcher is completing 60% of his passed for 448 yards with five TDs and a pick. Temple has used two QBs thus far in Jaxon Smolik (116 yds passing, 69yds rushing) and Ajani Sheppard (133yds passing, 33yds rushing).

FLORIDA STATE AT No. 10 ALABAMA

Line & Total: Alabama -19 | 49

Open: -18.5/50.5.

Last game: Alabama beat Kentucky 45-17. FSU last played on Sept. 7 and fell at home to SMU 27-24.

Last year: FSU +13.5 over Alabama 31-17.

QB matchup:  Alabama was down 17-13 at the half last week and outscored KY 32-0 in the second half. QB Keelon Russell turned the ball over three times in the first half and settled down, thorwing for 188 yards. The Tide will try and establish the running game with Daniel Hill (104 yds last week). FSU was fortunate to be in a three-point game against SMU as they wer eoutgained 585-324. QB Ashton Daniels is completing 58% of his passes for 327 yards with two TDs and a pick in two games. Head coach Mike Norvell could be in trouble if the Noles lose another game against Power Four competition (lost 18 of 22). 

MIAMI (OHIO) AT CINCINNATI

Line & Total: Cincinnati -16 | 49.5.

Open: Cincinnati -14.5/49. 

Last games: Miami beat FCS Holy Cross 45-7; Cincinnati crushed FCS Western Carolina 62-10.

QB matchup: Cincinnati is 2-0 and led by QB JC Frenc IV, who has 322 yards passing with three TDs and no picks. He also had three rushing TDs. David McComb is completing 63% of his passes for 475 yards with four TDs and no picks for Miami-Ohio.

The Battle for the Victory Bell will take place at TQL Stadium, home of FCS Cincinnati of MLS.

UTAH STATE AT No. 17 UTAH

Line & Total: Utah -28 | 57.

Open -27.5/57.

Last game: Utah destroyed Arkansas 43-10. Utah State fell at Washington 16-14 (+28.5), after being shocked at home by FCS Idaho State 29-17 in the opener. 

QB matchup: Utah State is 109th in FBS with 339 yards per game of total offense. QB play has been erratic with Grady Brosterhous (53.7%, 263 yds, 2TDs, 4 INTs) and McCae Hillstead (50%, 2 TDs, 3 INTs) have shared duties thus far. Bosterhous should get the start since he also can run (116 yds). Utah QB Devon Dampier is completing 73.8% of his passes for 437 yards with five TDs and one pick. He also has 80 rushing yards and two scores.

UTEP AT No. 19 MICHIGAN

Line & Total: Michigan -35| 49

Open: -36.5/49.

Last game: Michigan beat Oklahoma 17-10. UTEP beat FCS Texas Southern 51-10 last week, after being crushed by Oklahoma 51-0 on Sept. 4.

QB matchup: EJ Colson Jr. vs. Bryce Underwood. . Underwood should benefit from Michigan’s run game and short fields. HE also had 87 rushing yards against OU. Colson Jr. passed for four TDs last week and rushed for another, but was held to 52 yards passing against the Sooners. That’s not a good sign for the Miners against the defensive-minded Wolverines.

KENTUCKY AT No. 9 TEXAS A&M

Line & Total: Texas A&M -17| 50

Open: -18.5/48.5.

Last games: Kentucky lost 45-17 to Alabama; A&M beat Arizona State 48-20.

QB matchup: A&M has a strong defensive uit but Marcel Reed isn’t bad as a QB either, throwing for 396 yards and five TDs this season. Kentucky was limited to just 63 rushing yards against Alabama and committed three turnovers.  

No. 16 SMU AT No. 23 LOUISVILLE

Line & Total: Louisville -1.5 | 58.5.

Open: -2/60.

Last year: SMU (-3.5) over Louisville 38-6.

Last game: SMU beat FCS UC Davis 56-10; Louisville crushed FCS Villanova 59-13.

QB matchup: Kevin Jennings gives SMU a major improvisational component. He has 767 passing yards and eight TDS in two games. Louisville’s Lincoln Kienholz is an Ohio State transfer, who has 639 passing yards and 111 rushing yards. Both quarterback are dangerous in the air and on the ground.

No. 12 USC AT RUTGERS

Line & Total: USC -21.5 | 59.5.

Open: -24.5/56.5.

Last game: USC beat Louisiana 49-30; Rutgers lost 28-21 at Boston College.

QB matchup: Jayden Maiava gives USC a large explosive-passing advantage. His team is 3-0 and looking for a Big 10 win against a struggling Rutgers team. Maiava leads FBS in passing yards with 896 and TDS with 10. Rutgers’ coach Greg Schiano is on a very hot seat. QB Dylan Longergan is expected to start though AJ Surace took his place against BC last week due to an injury.

Key injury: Check Rutgers’ secondary and USC receiver availability.

 BALL STATE AT LIBERTY

Line & Total: Liberty -14.5 | 49.5.

Open: -14.5/55.5

Last game: Liberty edged FCS Gardner-Webb 24-23; Ball State beat FCS Stony Brook 41-17.

QB matchup: Keldric Luster enters after completing 27-of-32 passes for 256 yards and three TDs for Ball State. Deshawn Purdie completed just 6 of 17 for 122 yards with a TD last week. The running game carried the Flames with 193 yards on 45 carries.

WESTERN KENTUCKY AT No. 4 INDIANA

Line & Total: Indiana -44.5 | 60.5.

Open: -44/59.5.

Last game: WKU lost 70-20 at Georgia. Indiana beat FCS Howard 55-0.

QB matchup: At least Western Kentucky will make a fortune after going from Georgia to Indiana in back-to-back weeks. QB Rodney Tisdale Jr. was decent last week with 234 yards and left last week due to an injury. Backup Brock Glenn, a Florida State transfer, threw for a TD and ran for two more. Indiana QB Josh Hoover leads the nation in passer rating (285.1) but has thrown just 27 passes for 376 yards and eight TDs in two blowouts.

LOUISIANA TECH AT BAYLOR

Line & Total: Baylor -17.5 | 48.

Open: -17.5/55.5.

Last game: Louisiana Tech lost 45-14 at LSU. Baylor beat FCS Prairie View 44-3 last week after losing to Auburn by one point in their opener.

QB matchup: La Tech QB Trey Kuko, who has five TDs and four INTs over his last two seasons at Tech, replaces starter Blake Baker due to injury. Baylor QB DJ Lagway is also out. Nate Bennett filled in for Lagway last week, thorwing for 314 yards, three TDs and two INTs.

Key injury: Baylor DT Devonte Tezino (leg) is out for the season. LT QB Blak Baker (hand) is out. 

STANFORD AT DUKE

Line & Total: Duke -10 | 50.5.

Open: -10/50.5.

Last game: Duke earned an impressive 31-27 road win over Illinois. Stanford is coming off a 45-6 loss to Miami-Fla. at home on Sept. 4. They are coming off a bye week.

QB matchup: Duke QB Walker Eget, threw for 473 yards last season and three TDs in a 30-29 loss at Stanford, as QB for San Jose State. He threw for 206 yards and three TDs last week in their win over Illinois. RB Nate Sheppard leads the FBS with an average of 187 rushing yards per game. Stanford QB Davis Warren has thrown for 524 yarsd with a TD and a pick. 

Stanford has lost 11 straight games away from home.

MISSISSIPPI STATE AT SOUTH CAROLINA

Line & Total: South Carolina -3.5 | 58.5.

Open: -4/58.

Last game: Mississippi State beat Minnesota 38-13. South Carolina beat FCS Towson 45-9.

QB matchup:  South Carolina has not faced anbody yet. They’ll have their first test this week. RB Matt Fuller leads the Gamecocks with 199 yards rushing, but they need more consistency from QB Lanorris Sellers, who is completing 63% of his passes for 366 yards with 3 TDs and a pick. He also has 120 yards rushing and a score. QB Kamario Taylor is completing 67.9% of his passes for 581 yards with seven TDs and a pick.

EAST CAROLINA AT OLD DOMINION

Line & Total: ODU -3 | 48.

Open: ODU -2/50

Last game: ECU lost 27-24 to Appalachian State. ODU fell at Viginia Tech 44-21.

QB matchup: ODU’s Quinn Henicle is dangerous because of his legs as well as his arm. He is completing 66.7% of his passes for 330 yards with three TDs and a pick. Henicle also has 151 rushing yards and three TDs. ECU has to account for the quarterback in the running game. ECU QB Mitch Griffis is a Texas Tech transfer, who is completing 58.5% of his passes for 367 yards with three TDs and two INTs.

CHARLOTTE AT APPALACHIAN STATE

Line & Total: App State -17.5 | 52

Open: -20.5/50

Last games: Charlotte lost 41-9 at Ole Miss; App State beat ECU 27-24.

Last year: App State (-3.5) over Charlotte 34-11

QB matchup: Charlotte covered the 44.5 last week, but that didn’t make up for their 43-41 loss to the FCS The Citadel in their opening week. QB Cole Gonzales is completing 67.7% of his passes for 450 yards with 3 TDs and 3 INTs. Malachi Singleton is completing 80.8% of his passes for 558 yards with three TDs and no picks for App State.

MARSHALL AT MISSOURI STATE

Line & Total: Marshall -4.5 | 53.

Open: -3.5/54.

Last week: Marshall beats Mid Tenn State 28-26, giving 11.5. Missouri State beat FCS Lindenwood 48-14.

Last year: Marshall +7.5 over Missouri Saate 21-20.

QB matchup:   Marshall was shut out by Penn State in their opener. They bounced back last week against MTU. QB Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is completing 72.7% of his passes for 194 yards with a TD and no picks. He also has 73 rushing yards and a pick. QB Skyler Locklear is completing 67.6% of his passes for 288 yards with a TD.

FIU AT FAU

Last games: FIU beat Buffalo 33-20; FAU beat Navy 38-30.

Last year: FIU -1.5 over FAU 38-28

QB matchup: FAU’s Caden Veltkamp is coming off 386 yards and five TD passes against Navy. FIU QB JJ Kohl (6-7, 250) is completing 60.5% of his passes for 668 yard with four TDs and two INTs.

GEORGIA SOUTHERN AT JACKSONVILLE STATE

Line & Total: Jacksonville State -3.5 | 52.5.

Open: Jax State -3/52.6.

Last games: Georgia Southern lost 22-7 at Clemson; Jacksonville State lost 29-27 in four overtimes at Ohio.

Last year: Georgia Southern -3.5 over JVST 41-34.

QB matchup: Jax State QB Caden Creel is completing 68% of his passes for 677 yards with six TDs and two picks. He also leads with 218 rushing yards and two TDs. Geo Southern QB Max Johnson threw for 244 yards last weeek agaisnt Clemson, but was 27 of 47 with a TD. 

OHIO AT SOUTH ALABAMA

Line & Total: South Alabama -6.5 | 49.5.

Open: -3,5/52,5,

Last game: Ohio survived Jacksonville State 29-27 in four overtimes. USA lost at Tulane 28-24 getting 9.5.

QB matchup: Ohio QB Nick Poulos is completing just 44.4% of his passes for 180 yards with a TD. He does have 81 yards rushing. Matt Vezza has only thrown 13 passes but also has 72 yards rushing for the Bobcats. USA QB Bishop Davenport is completing 67.8% of his passes for 450 yards with three TDs and no picks. He also has 73 rushing yards and one score.

NEVADA AT MIDDLE TENNESSEE

Line & Total: Nevada -3.5 | 50.5.

Open: -6/52.5.

Last games: Nevada lost 20-7 to FCS Montana State; MTSU lost 28-26 at Marshall.

Last year: MTU +9.5 over Nevada 14-13.

QB matchup: Carter Jones is expected back for Nevada as Luke Duncan has two picks and is completing 43.8% of his passes. QB Roman Gagliano is completing 61.6% of his passes for MTU with four TDs and a pick. He also has 83 rushing yards with a TD.

UCONN AT SOUTHERN MISS

Line & Total: UConn -3.5 | 54.5.

Open: -3/54.

Last week: UConn loses to Maryland at home 38-14, as an 11.5-point home dog. SMiss lost at Auburn 43-8, getting 31.5.

QB matchup: Kalieb Osborne vs. Ethan Hampton. Osborne needs better efficiency after an uneven Maryland game. Hampton benefits from Southern Miss’ productive running game.

FLORIDA AT AUBURN

Current Line: Florida -1.5/54.

Open: Florida -2.5/53.5.

Last games: Florida beat FCS Campbell 52-3; Auburn beat Southern Miss 43-8.

QB matchup: These SEC rivals have not met since 2019. Auburn QB Byrum Brown leads the Tigers. He was South Florda’s QB last year when he threw for 485 yards with two TDs and three picks in a 18-16 stunner over the Gators. Florida QB Aaron Philo is 32 of 42 for 517 yards with five TDs and a pick thus far.

TROY AT No. 20 MISSOURI

Current: Missouri -27.5/49.5

Open:  -27/50.

Last game: Missouri beat Kansas 38-21. Troy beat FCS Alcorn State 34-17.

QB matchup: Mizzou QB Austin Simmon will try and avoid a letdown after a fierce game against Kansas in the Border War last week. He therw for 292 yards with three TDs. Troy is led by RB Jaheim Merriweather, a transfer from Purdue, who had 127 yards and three TDs last week. Goose Crowder threw for 201 yards last week.  

Missouri has some injury issues on the offensive line.

WEST VIRGINIA VS. No. 25 VIRGINIA — CHARLOTTE

Neutral site. 

Current: Virginia -10,5./53.

Open: -9.5/53.

Last games: West Virginia beat FCS Tenn Martin 52-7; UVA crushed FCS Norfolk State 59-3.

QB matchup: WVa is averaging 5.3 yards per carry and 298.5 rushing yards per ame thus far.  Virginia is led by QB Beau Pribula, a Mizzou transfer, who has 317 yards passing, five TDs and a pick this season.

VIRGINIA TECH AT MARYLAND

Last game: Maryland beat UConn 38-14. Va Tech crushed ODU 44-21.

QB matchup: Former Maryland assistant coaches Mike Locksley and James Franklin get together again. Maryland QB Malik Washington is comleting 73.6% of his passes for 533 yards and no INTs. This will be a big test against a defense that has 12 sacks. Franklin’s QB is Penn State trasnfer Ethan Gunkemeyer, who is completing 77.4% of his passes for four TDs and a pick.

NEW MEXICO AT No. 24 OKLAHOMA

Line: Oklahoma -21.5/44.5

Open: -21.5/49.

Last games: New Mexico scored 70 against Mercyhurst; Oklahoma fell 17-10 at Michigan.

QB matchup: New Mexico is led by RB Scottre Humphrey, who has 174 yards and three TDs. They’ve used two QB thus far though Luke Moga has been the most consistent, completing 65.4% of his passes for 198 yards with 3 TDs and no picks. John Mateer will not have LT Michael Fasusi (shoulder), but he can run. He threw a late pick that allowed Michigan to set up a game-winning TD late in the game last week.

No. 11 BYU AT COLORADO STATE

Current: BYU -17.5/53.

Open: -20.5/52.5.

Last games: BYU beat Arizona 28-17; CSU scored 58 against FCS Southern Utah.

QB matchup:  CSU QB Hauss Hejny is completing 41 of 63 for 539 yards with nine TDs and a pick in two games. BYU QB Bear Bachmeier threw 3 TD passes last weeka gainst Arizona. He has 415 passing yards and 67 rushing yards this season.

No. 7 LSU AT No. 8 OLE MISS

Line: LSU -3/57.5

Open: -2.5/59

Last games: LSU beat Louisiana Tech 45-14; Ole Miss beat Charlotte 41-9.

QB matchup: This is the most important injury-driven QB matchup of the week. LSU QB Sam Leavitt (back) is listed as questionable after being listed as doubtful earlier in the week. Leavitt is sixth in the nation in total offense (354.5ypg). Lane Kiffin, in his return to Oxford, has a freshman in Husan Longstreet and sophomore Landen Clark as his backups. Trinidad Chambliss leads Ole Miss at QB with 561 passing yards, five TDs and one pick. Star RB Kewan Lacy, who has been banged up, has 148 rushing yards and three TDs. 

MICHIGAN STATE AT No. 3 NOTRE DAME

Current Line: ND -29.5/52.

Open: -29.5/51.5.

Last games: Michigan State beat Eastern Michigan 35-7; Notre Dame crushed Rice 52-0.

QB matchup: ND QB CJ Carr is completing 71.4% of his passes for 492 yards, six TDs and no picks. He has one of the nation’s top WRs in Jordan Faison. ND has outscored opponents 93-13. MSU is 2-0 led by QB Alessio Miliojevic, who is completing 70.4% for 417 yards, three TDs and no picks. 

UAB AT LOUISIANA

Current Odds:  Louisiana -8/55.5

Open: -9.5/58.5

QB matchup: Louisiana’s Lunch Winfield is particularly important because of his dual-threat ability. He has 401 yards passsing with one TD and two picks. He also 175 rushing yards and three TDs. Ryder Burton is completing 55.3% of his passe for 334 yards with two TDs and two picks for UAB. 

UTSA AT No. 1 TEXAS

Current: Texas -30/58

Open: -30/57.

Last game: Texas erased a 20-point fourth-quarter deficit to beat Ohio State 24-23. UTSA beat Texas State on the road 31-26.

QB matchup: Arch Manning is coming off a definining moment in his career in the comeback win over Ohio State. Will there be a letdown? He went 22 of 37 for 195 yards and a TD. Owen McCown threw for 214 yards and TD in their win last week. He’ll have a much tougher test in Austin. 

ARKANSAS STATE AT TCU

Current Line: TCU -18.5/56

Open: -20.5/56.5

Last games: Ark State -31.5 over FCS West Georgia 52-7. TCU -44.5 over Grambling State 63-7.

QB matchup: TCU QB Jaden Craigh has 566 yards with four TDs and a pick. Ark State has a former Texas QB in Trey Owens, who has thrown for 460 yards and three TDs, while completing 72.3% of his passes. he had four picks in their earlier loss at Memphis.

JAMES MADISON AT SAN DIEGO STATE

Line & Total: San Diego State -1.5 | 46.

Last games: JMU destroyed FCS Wagner 87-3; SDSU lost 28-10 at UCLA. 

QB matchup: SDSU’s Jayden Denegal needs better efficiency. He’s completing just 52.9% of his passes for 182 yards with three TDs and two picks. JMU’s quarterback benefits from a system built around spacing and creating numbers. JMU QB Camden Coleman has 228 passing yards with a TD and no picks. The veteran spent six previous seasons at Richmond.  

NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT ARIZONA

Current: Ariz -34/50.5

Open: -35.5/50.

Last games: NIU lost 28-24 to FCS Illinois State; Arizona lost 28-17 at BYU.

QB matchup: Arizona owns a major advantage with veteran QB Noah Fifita. he has over 9,000 passing yards for his career. This season, he is completing 75.4% of his passes for 509 yards and three TDs. No. Illinios used two quaterbacks in each game thus far. Taron Dickens has received most of the snaps. He has 289 yards passing with a TD and two picks.

PURDUE AT UCLA

Current: UCLA -14/52.5

Open: -13.5/53.

Last game: Purdue lost 38-36 in double overtime at Wake Forest. UCLA beat San Diego State 28-10.

QB matchup: Purdue QB Ryan Browne threw for 329 yards and a TD in their OT loss last week. RB Fame Ijeboi added three TDs. UCLA needed 21 fourth-quarter points to beat a feisty SD State team last week. Former Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava has 335 passing yards with no TDs and two picks thus far.

FRESNO STATE AT SAN JOSE STATE

Current: Fresno State -6.5/0

Open: -7.5/52.5

Last game: Fresno State rebounded with a 49-3 win over Sacramento State. San Jose State beat FCS Cal Poly 30-20. 

Last year: Fresno State -3.5 over SJ State 41-14.

QB matchup: SJST QB Luke Weaver is completing 62.9% of his passes for 788 yards with eight TDs. RB Jabari Bates leads in rushing with 319 yards in three games. SJS also beat EMU and lost at USC. Fresno QB Jayden Mandal is completing 73.2% of his passes for 393 yards with two TDs and a pick.

Before we get to Week 2 in the NFL and Week 3 in College Football, let’s touch on the key injuries as of Wednesday night.

Latest Key Injuries in the NFL and College

These are injuries that can impact the outcomes and the odds.

NFL Injuries
Baltimore: WR Zay Flowers (hamstring) did not practice on Wednesday. He’s questionable.

LA Rams: Edge Myles Garrett (knee) is out at least four weeks.

LA Chargers: WR Ladd McCkonkey (ribs)had five catches for 82 yards last week. He is day to day.

Las Vegas: TE Brock Bowers (knee) could play this week but didn’t practice on Wed.

Minnesota: QB Kyler Murray (concussion) is going through protocol. He’s day-to-day. Carson Wentz (3 TDs passing LW) will start if Murray can’t go.

New England: WR A.J. Brown (ankle sprain) is out 4-6 weeks.

Philadelphia: OLB Jonathan Greenard (pec) is close to returning. The former Vikings Edge had 12 sacks in 2024. LG Landon Dickerson (lower body) aggravated an injury and was placed on IR.
San Francisco: WR De’Zhaun Stribling (ankle) is out 8-10 weeks.

Seattle: QB Sam Darnold (hip) is out this week and it could be longer. Drew Lock will start at QB.

College Football
LSU QB Sam Leavitt is doubtful this week against Ole Miss.

Miami Fl will be without three defensive backs out against WF on Friday.

Navy QB Braxton Woodson (ankle) is questionable. Star potential but Navy has depth at QB.

UNC star DE Melkart Abou Jaoude is questionable at Clemson. Led the Tar Heels in sacks last season. Two other playare are out following a Tuesday night traffic stop in Chapel Hill.

Rutgers QB Dylan Lonergan (undisclosed) missed the loss at BC but is probable for USC game. Star RB Antwan Raymond is consisddered questionable.

Tulane QB Baylor Hayes (knee) is day to day

USC star freshman WR Trent Mosley is out against Rutgers. Has 255 yards, four TDs in three games.

Vandy will start true freshman QB Jared Curtis against NC State.

Washington WR Christian Moss (45 catches for 689 yds LY) is out 2-3 months with a lower body injury.

Thursday’s Games

College Football

Josh Allen 2+ TDs +390

DJ Moore Anytime TD scorer +150

Not inherently—but conference play is often easier to analyze consistently, while non-conference play may offer bigger pricing mistakes.

Conference play suits a disciplined bettor because teams operate in comparable environments. You have more evidence about rotations, coordinators and line play, and common opponents make power ratings easier to calibrate. Specializing in one conference can also reveal coaching and matchup tendencies the broad market may underweight.

The drawback is that sportsbooks have the same information. Rivalries are heavily analyzed, injury news attracts attention, and obvious angles are quickly priced into the line. Familiar opponents can also produce tactical changes that make historical averages less predictive.

Non-conference games—especially early ones—contain greater uncertainty from transfers, new quarterbacks, coaching changes and mismatched competition. That creates opportunities, but also increases the chance that your own estimate is wrong.

My practical conclusion:

• Beginning bettor: Conference play is preferable because comparisons are cleaner.
• Experienced bettor with strong roster knowledge: Early non-conference markets may offer more upside.
• Best overall strategy: Use non-conference games to learn and update ratings, then make conference play your primary betting period.